This week, the overall market volatility continued to decline, with the market maintaining a narrow range consolidation. Significant macro data is set to be released this week, with the U.S. initial jobless claims data and August PPI producer inflation data scheduled for release tonight at 20:30. These will serve as key inflation reference indicators ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September, significantly impacting short-term market sentiment.
Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have converged, and the expectations for interest rate hikes have fluctuated, leading to a cautious overall market sentiment. Ahead of the significant data releases, the market is hesitant to easily trend in one direction, causing BTC and ETH to maintain high-level sideways trading with repeated shakeouts in recent days, waiting for news to provide a new directional cue.
The biggest characteristic of the recent market is the extreme grinding and repeated tug-of-war, with the vast majority of traders being worn down by the volatility.
BTC has closed in the red for three consecutive days, with a doji candlestick forming yesterday and today opening directly below the middle Bollinger band of the daily chart, showing clear signs of weakness. During yesterday's trading session, we accurately captured the range’s rhythm: short positions at the resistance levels of BTC 79500 and ETH 2510 successfully provided arbitrage opportunities.
Currently, it is appropriate to take profits and exit short positions. In a volatile market, do not chase short positions or long positions; repeatedly chasing trades will only lead to being harvested by the market. Tonight's data is likely to trigger rapid fluctuations, so traders must reduce their positions and strictly control risks.
After a significant convergence of the daily Bollinger bands, the three bands are currently basically flat, with the market entering a standard box consolidation phase. The KDJ is opening downward, RSI is flattening and dulling, MACD's death cross continues, and bearish volume is still being released, indicating a clear need for a retracement and repair on the technical side. However, price movements are completely independent of indicators; every downward probe has strong support, quickly recovering after a shakeout, representing a typical bullish accumulation structure characterized by sideways trading instead of falling, weak indicators, and price resilience.
The large-scale trend is very clear:
BTC does not break 75000, the bullish structure remains intact; until it stabilizes above 80000, the consolidation pattern cannot be broken.
ETH is also stuck in the narrow range of 2350–2500; it is not weak unless it breaks below the lower boundary, and it cannot break unless it stands above the resistance.
BTC
Key support below: 77500, 76000
Positioning in batches to long on pullbacks are the main layout ideas for the day.
Resistance above: 78500–79500–80500
Each rebound faces resistance at different levels; reduce long positions in batches without being greedy to hold throughout.
ETH
Layered support below: 2450–2400–2350
Buying in batches at the bottom of the range aligns with the oscillation rhythm.
Resistance areas above: 2500–2550–2600
Short-term arbitrage can be made at the resistance; take profits at target levels without lingering in battle.
The most exhausting aspect of trading has never been the intense fluctuations of large candlesticks but the day-to-day sideways consolidation.
In a volatile market, there are no right or wrong increases or decreases, only rhythm and patience. Indicators are being repaired every day, and the market is testing daily; many people cannot endure the monotony and do not last through the consolidation, exiting prematurely before the trend starts.
True stable profits are never gained through frequent trading but through waiting for the right positions and executing fixed discipline.
Currently, the bullish structure of the market has not changed; it is just waiting for the opportunity to gather strength. Do not let the short-term repeated shaking disrupt your mentality; hold the range well, manage stop losses, and do not chase increases or decreases. Only by enduring the volatility can one hold onto breakthroughs; time will reward calm and disciplined traders.
Risk Reminder: The above market ideas are purely personal analysis and do not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the uncertainty of data and market conditions is high. Please strictly control positions and trade rationally. For more daily market interpretations, follow the public account: Zhongliang BN
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