The core conclusion is here: The U.S. Treasury has tripled the limit for long-term Treasury bond repurchases to $6 billion, but the market does not respond positively. The 10-year yield has surged to 4.85%, indicating that "maintaining stability" can only dampen but not reverse the trend. Tonight's PPI and tomorrow's CPI are the highlights of this week, and the three major commodities are likely to fluctuate within a range before the data release. Currently, Bitcoin is at 78300, Ethereum at 2472, and gold at 4422. Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from their lows, but with weak momentum, while gold has rebounded strongly from 4345 but is approaching the TD9 turning point in 15 minutes, with short-term correction risks accumulating.

Brothers, the journey through the world is not to be feared for its distance; one may encounter like-minded individuals along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiangye.

1. Macroeconomic Analysis: U.S. Treasury's Efforts to Maintain Stability Fall Short, PPI and CPI Are the Real Tests

The U.S. Treasury announced on Tuesday that it will triple the cap on long-term Treasury bond repurchase scale to $6 billion, which is also a tool used by Secretary of the Treasury Yellen to suppress long-term borrowing costs, referred to as "Treasury Distortion Operation." The aim is to slow down rising yields and avoid extreme risks in the bond market.

However, the market's reaction was very direct: after the news broke, the bond market continued to weaken, with the 10-year yield rising 6 basis points to 4.85%, simultaneously dragging down U.S. stocks.

Market consensus is that to reverse the trend, the repurchase scale would need to be at least $7 billion; $6 billion only falls at the lower end of expectations, providing only slight cushioning and unlikely to reverse the market. Previous policy briefly suppressed yields, but they quickly rebounded, and last week the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield even reached its highest level since 2023. With no substantial improvement in the fundamentals, the effectiveness of such interventions is hard to sustain.

This evening's PPI and tomorrow's CPI are the main events of this week, directly impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations for September.

Two anticipated scenarios:

✅ Inflation cools down: Interest rate hike expectations decline, and gold and crypto assets welcome a rebound.

⚠️ Inflation rises again: Interest rate hike expectations heat up, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and the three commodities face pressure simultaneously.

Before the data release, large funds remain cautious, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range, strictly forbidding heavy betting on a one-sided outcome.

2. Bitcoin Range: Limited Rebound from Double Bottom, Core Support and Resistance Zone 77600-79700

The price has retreated from a high of 79760, dipping to a low of 77620, and is currently rebounding towards 78300. The hourly chart shows a double bottom structure at 77620, with downward momentum exhausting but rebound strength relatively weak.

1-hour level: TD Up:1, rebounding from the low of 77620; the Bollinger middle band is at 78699, with the price yet to establish stability above the middle band. The MACD green bar is -116.28, with DIF below DEA, and the golden cross has not formed; KDJ is diverging upwards from a low position, showing rebound momentum but not entering a strong zone.

15-minute level: TD Up:2, rebounding from the low of 77770; the Bollinger middle band is at 78413, with the price still below the middle band. The MACD red bar is 49.39, with short-term rebound momentum still present; KDJ K44, J51 is generally weak, yet there is still room for a rebound.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 78700-79000 (1 Hour Bollinger Middle Band + Fluctuation Platform)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 79700-80000 (Near previous high of 79760)

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 77600-77500 (Double Bottom Low)

• Strong Support: 76500

Operation Reference:

🔹 Low Long: Stabilizes on the pullback to 77500-77600, confirming the double bottom support, light position for long, stop loss at 77200, target 78700→79000.

🔹 Aggressive Long: Light position to try long near the current price of 78000, reserving space for additional purchases, stop loss at 77500, target 78700→79700.

🔹 High Short: If the price rebounds to 79000-79700 and shows stagnation, with a long upper shadow or engulfing bearish line, light position to try short, stop loss at 80000, target 78000→77600.

⚠️ Key Point: 78000 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears; holding above it presents opportunities for recovery, falling below it will lead to further declines. All positions should be light ahead of the data, strictly carrying stop losses, do not chase short at the bottom of the box.

3. Ethereum Range: 2440 Starts Rebound Stronger than Bitcoin, 2440-2530 Attack and Defense Zone

ETH is currently priced at 2472, rebounding from the low of 2440, slightly stronger than Bitcoin, but the hourly price is still below the Bollinger middle band.

1-hour level: TD Up:2, rebounding from the low of 2440; the Bollinger middle band is at 2484. The MACD green bar is -4.51, with bearish momentum continuing to wane; KDJ K41, J58 is trending upwards from a low, indicating rebound momentum.

15-minute level: TD Up:2, rebounding from the low of 2440, with the price above the Bollinger middle band at 2462. The MACD red bar is 3.57, indicating short-term rebound continuity; KDJ K56, J70 is neutral but slightly high.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 2484-2500 (Bollinger Middle Band + Round Number)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 2530-2560 (Near previous highs)

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 2440-2415 (This round low + Spike Divergence Level)

• Strong Support: 2380

Operation Reference:

🔹 Low Long: Stabilizes on the pullback to 2435-2440, exhibiting a spike divergence, light position for long, stop loss at 2400, target 2500→2530.

🔹 Aggressive Long: Light position to try long near the current price of 2472, reserving space for additional purchases, stop loss at 2440, target 2530→2560.

🔹 High Short: If the price rebounds to 2520-2530 and shows stagnation with divergence, light position to try short, stop loss at 2560, target 2470→2440.

⚠️ Note: ETH's elasticity is better than Bitcoin's, prioritizing low long positions; however, do not chase long above 2520, primarily consider a high short approach at resistance levels, and be sure to bring stop losses to deal with sudden news impacts.

4. Gold Range: Strong Rebound from 4345, 15-minute TD9 Turning Point Approaching, Fluctuating between 4390-4460

Gold is currently priced at 4422, having strongly rebounded from a low of 4345, showing the strongest rebound among the three commodities. However, the 15-minute TD is already at Up9 turning point, and KDJ is extremely overbought, with short-term correction risk rising.

1-hour level: TD Up:2, rebounding from the low of 4345, the price is above the Bollinger middle band at 4408, a signal of bullish strength. The MACD red bar is 1.30, with DIF crossing above DEA forming a golden cross, indicating bullish release; KDJ K62, J83 is higher.

15-minute level: TD Up:9, having risen from the low of 4393 to the 9th turning point; the Bollinger middle band is 4408, with the price running above the middle band. The MACD red bar is 4.32, but it is gradually shrinking, while KDJ K85, J98 is severely overbought, posing the risk of a short-term pullback at any time.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 4435-4460 (Previous high + Peak trough conversion resistance)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 4480-4510

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 4390-4370 (15-minute Bollinger middle band, pullback support)

• Strong Support: 4345-4330 (This round's low)

Operation Reference:

🔹 High Short (Main Idea): If it rebounds to 4415-4435 and finds resistance, TD9 confirms a turn, light position to try short, stop loss at 4460, target 4390→4370, breaking below targets 4350→4330.

🔹 Low Long (Only for Support Betting): Stabilizes on the pullback to 4370-4390, light position for rebound betting, stop loss at 4350, target 4420→4435, quick in and out.

⚠️ Key Logic: 4345 is the low of this round; holding above this could continue the oversold rebound; a valid break below will open up lower spaces. Middle East geopolitical conflicts and global central banks' gold purchases underpin the bottom of gold prices, but the rising yields of U.S. Treasuries suppress the extent of rebounds, leading to overall fluctuating markets with no one-sided trend.

5. Summary

The scale of Treasury bond repurchases has tripled, yet the market does not respond positively; the 10-year yield has surged to 4.85%, confirming that maintaining stability can only cushion but not reverse the trend. Tonight's PPI and tomorrow's CPI are the core events for this week, with the three major commodities maintaining a range fluctuation before data release.

Bitcoin has rebounded from the double bottom at 77620 to 78300, but the 1-hour Bollinger middle band has not stabilized, indicating weak rebound strength; Ethereum has rebounded from 2440 to 2472, showing stronger performance than Bitcoin; gold has rebounded strongly from 4345, but the 15-minute TD9 turning point is emerging, and there is short-term pressure to adjust under overbought conditions.

Operational Strategy:

🔹 Bitcoin pullback at 77500-77600 for low long, rebound at 79000-79700 for high short, 78000 as the dividing line between bulls and bears.

🔹 Ethereum pullback at 2435-2440 for low long, rebound at 2520-2530 for high short.

🔹 Gold rebound at 4415-4435 for high short, pullback at 4370-4390 for light short-term long, quick in and out.

All positions should maintain light exposure, strict stop-loss, and await adjustments after PPI and CPI data are released.

💬 Interactive Topic: Tonight's PPI and tomorrow's CPI, do you think the data will lean dovish or hawkish? Share your judgment in the comments section.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is based on technical logic analysis of the market and is for reference and exchange only, not constituting any investment advice. Financial markets are extremely volatile, and contract trading carries high risks. Please trade rationally, strictly control positions, and carry your own stop-loss; responsibility for gains and losses lies with you.

Thank you all for your trust and companionship; market conditions change rapidly, and stable compounding is the long-term path. I am Jiangye, see you next time.

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