The biggest contradiction in the current market remains unchanged: the technical aspect is bearish, while the funding aspect continues to provide support.

After the death cross formed on the BTC daily chart, the bearish momentum has been continuously strengthening, but a true accelerated decline has not yet occurred. Whenever the market starts to weaken, bullish funds tend to re-enter, causing the price to return to the range. Yesterday, BTC closed with a candlestick showing upper and lower shadows, and the battle between bulls and bears remains intense.

Currently, BTC is operating around 78000, and ETH is around 2460, both nearing their respective important support zones, and the market has once again reached a directional decision-making window.

The most common mistake at this stage is to develop a cognitive inertia after a long period of consolidation, believing that every rise can be shorted and every fall can be bought. Once a significant break occurs, continuing to trade with a consolidation mindset could easily lead to consecutive stop losses.

Therefore, **it is essential to be cautious of sudden drops or volume breaks today and tomorrow.** Continue to sell high and buy low until the range is broken; once there is an effective break, do not chase higher after cutting losses, and do not cling to the original consolidation logic, wait for confirmation before following the trend.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: The daily chart is bearish, with high short positions as the main focus and low long positions as secondary.

After the death cross on the BTC daily chart, the gap continues to widen, and the bearish momentum is significantly stronger than before, so before the direction is fully confirmed, high short positions after a rebound still hold certain advantages.

However, there is still a clear divergence between the funding aspect and the technical aspect.

Recent market support comes more from ETF and spot funds rather than high-leverage contract funds. This is one of the important reasons why the daily chart is clearly bearish, yet the price has not been able to accelerate downward smoothly.

In the short term, the hourly and 2-hour charts are currently in a rebound and repair phase, so it is not advisable to blindly short near support; it is better to wait for the price to approach the upper edge of the range again to observe resistance.

Currently, focus on two levels:

If 77500 is not broken, continue to treat it as a consolidation;
If 77200 is effectively lost, then it is necessary to guard against a true acceleration of the bears.

Once 77200 is broken with increased volume, the original strategy of selling high and buying low needs to be temporarily abandoned.

Support: 77177-77557, 76600
Resistance: 79618-80088, 80558

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Mainly consolidation, high shorts and low longs, with limited operations in the middle of the range.

ETH is currently operating within the 2440—2520 repair range, and the short-term direction is similarly not fully determined.

The 1-hour and 2-hour charts are still in a bullish repair phase, so there is a possibility of continuing to rebound and test the upper resistance, but 2520 remains the first important barrier in the short term.

The logic is relatively clear:

If it breaks through 2520 and stabilizes, the short-term repair is expected to continue;
If it fails to break 2520, then continue to guard against a pullback;
If 2430 is effectively lost, it means the current consolidation structure has been broken.

Compared to BTC, ETH has greater volatility elasticity, so frequently opening positions in the middle of the range has relatively low cost-effectiveness. It is more suitable to wait for the price to approach the boundaries or to follow up after a clear volume momentum appears.

Support: 2430-2450, 2400
Resistance: 2500-2520, 2550
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