In the past two weeks, Robinhood's MEME stocks were hot, and this week a big gold dog emerged on BSC, all playing off the US stock concept. I also hopped on, but I bought the wrong one, ended up with 4stock next door, and painfully missed out on a hundred-fold opportunity.

Speaking of last night’s news about Biden's son issuing a coin, it was really dramatic. I even shared a pre-heating post on Twitter, instantly recalling Trump's tactics from back in the day. In just one night, the coin's price dropped by 90%, from a high of $30 billion market cap crashing down to $2.6 billion. Last night, a bunch of people rushed in to short it, only to get exploded, it was like a large-scale pig slaughter scene.

I wonder if anyone has been playing around with junk coins recently; I'll break down a few for you later. I've been watching beat lab and velvet, both of which have dropped especially hard these past few days, typical strong institutions controlling these shabby coins. If anyone has positions, keep an eye on them for reference.

2026 Bear to Bull Transition: Don't Let Short-Term Emotions Wear Away Your Principal

Back to the main topic, from the perspective of the 2026 bear to bull transition, the proportion of short-term profits is particularly worth discussing; it serves as a barometer of market sentiment. We tend to look for signals in the movements of giant whales, but these fluctuations in sentiment are essentially just short-term funds churning back and forth. This is why I have always advised everyone against getting caught up in short-term trading; the friction of back and forth can wear down your principal quickly. If you really want to participate, it's better to wait for a certain position or enter after a significant rebound. Previously at 82,000, I mentioned that the market would likely gradually decline, and it indeed seems to be following that rhythm now.

Looking back at my tweets, almost all new incoming funds made money in this wave. Yesterday I went live at the Binance Square and chatted with friends there about the previously mentioned hype, lit, vvv, and pons, with lit being the most vigorous this round, as we initially positioned ourselves around 2.5-2.8.

We all understand that for a market to go bull, there must be a continuous influx of money, and the only condition to attract funds consistently is the profit effect. 

Conversely, even if there's a rebound in a bear market, if there are too many short-term profits piled up, and the market lacks confidence, even a slight rise leads to people dumping for profit, naturally the market can't go far.

The current change in the market is that it has begun to allow newcomers to make profits, instead of facing selling pressure as soon as it rises. This is a good phenomenon, but don't rush into it. It also reminds us that short-term profits have become a bit too concentrated; logically, it can't maintain this state indefinitely. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither is sentiment. After being bearish for so long, the doubts in people's hearts are not easily dissipated, which is also why there's significant fluctuation during this transition period.

But if we look at it in the long term, BTC's volatility has been converging; 2023 has calmed down significantly compared to 2019. As profits increase, the selling pressure is actually decreasing. If everyone's expectations align, and nobody is willing to sell lightly, then a full-blown bull market will truly begin, which is the area shaded in blue in the diagram.

As for the current sentiment, you don't need to guess; just look at the data. Large orders, volume, and open interest are indicators that can be referenced, and they are useful signals. Every round of cycles in the past has followed this logic; it’s not about being stuck in rigid methods, it’s about market rules.

US Treasuries and Gold: The Variables Hidden in the Market

Since we're talking about BTC, let's also touch on the situation regarding US Treasuries. The treasury announced plans to repurchase up to $6 billion of 10-20 year Treasuries, yet the 10-year yield surged to 4.8528%. Normally, when the treasury buys bonds, the yield should drop.

But the market simply didn’t buy it. The 10-year rate equals future short-end rate expectations plus term premium, and both are currently rising, which is not a good signal. The market's current reaction is, simply put, waiting for the government to propose more credible anti-inflation policies. If things continue this way, and rate hike expectations rise again, the sustainability of this market will truly come into question; it's good to keep your eyes open.

From a time perspective, we are still in the rebound cycle of the bear market, but various indicators do indeed resemble the beginning of a bull market. Regardless, around $60,000 is definitely a bottom area; the bottom range is clear, and the key now is how to catch the next main wave.

So, does everyone feel there’s still a chance for a super bottom ahead? Personally, looking at the K-line, around $70,000 to $71,000 seems like a good point. I also placed an order above $60,000 and am watching how those giants move.

Let’s talk about gold. Previously, it was over $4,600, and now it has corrected to a bottom at $4,300, with the chips having changed hands. Recently I saw an interesting piece of news: the profit margins in gold mining are soaring, increasing far beyond the gold price itself. In the first quarter of 2026, the average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) profit margin for gold miners surged 134% year-on-year, hitting a historic high of $3,076 per ounce. This increase far outpaces the year-on-year gold price increase of 70%. Even the top 10% of miners with the highest production costs saw their AISC profit margin rise by 32% to $2,363 per ounce. From March 2024 to now, global miners' margins have tripled, while gold prices have only roughly doubled.

In plain terms, gold miners are raking in profits. With this in mind, we might still witness BTC going head-to-head with gold in spectacular showdowns, haha.

Aster and Opportunities in Junk Coins: Don’t Get Too Excited, Play Small Positions

New and old friends, don’t forget to participate in the 10% cashback benefit.

https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2 ASTER has also rebounded from 0.6 to 0.7 these two weeks; as part of the Binance DEX family, there has been continuous development. Recently, new token transactions have a 1.2x point bonus, so those looking for airdrop opportunities can join in. This effectively turns $ASTER from a token into a "money printer": season points = trading volume × 1.2x bonus (exclusive to new tokens), newly listed tokens carry this weight.

Recently popular are the Meme coins from Robinhood and BSC, and those that haven't hit top exchanges can also serve as hedges. Speaking of hedges, I don’t know if you heard about what happened at the AKE exchange last week, where users lost directly due to hedging—$5 million. If you truly want a hedge, participating in new coins is at least a bit steadier than those volatile ones. For new friends, here's an operation guide: Aster DEX is a multi-chain decentralized perpetual contract trading platform that supports high-leverage trading and cross-chain operations, with low fees. A reminder: crypto investment is risky, please participate rationally.

It's simple to operate: open the official website https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2, click on the wallet link on the right, and switch to Chinese; once successful, click “tokens” on the left, then select “newly listed.”

During this FOMO phase with junk coins, it may actually be possible to do small short positions to make some money, but do not get overexcited. Moreover, a lot of liquidity is concentrated in early chains, with not many candidates having mature contracts, so everyone can dig for opportunities themselves.

As for Pons, we can wait a bit longer; don’t rush to latch on. After discussing the market last week, I placed short orders for Pons and AI on Aster and harvested a wave. Now I'm waiting for a suitable position to make a swing trade.

The hype around the Robinhood Chain is indeed waning. I checked the data, and on September 8, the on-chain revenue was $1.42 million, down nearly 74% from the historical peak of $5.44 million on September 4. Data doesn’t lie; the Meme craze is rapidly cooling off. The daily destroy volume of UNI on the Robinhood Chain has also plummeted from a peak of 154,000 to 56,000. Of course, $1.42 million in daily revenue still looks strong in the long term, but the gap compared to the peak period is quite obvious.

So let's be patient with Pons; I plan to buy in batches in the range of 0.45 to 0.5. November is nearing the mid-term elections, and Trump will likely find a way to pump Bitcoin and market sentiment to gain votes. As long as the major market warms up, the RH chain itself carries a catalytic effect; maybe the market in October will be even stronger than this round. Let's observe the situation next week and not rush in.

I've also participated in the previous Meme from the RB platform in the past couple of days, short-term ones with a market cap of hundreds of thousands to millions, and now, basically all of them are at a loss. This also indirectly indicates that the incremental funds on-chain are actually shrinking.

Excess returns from investments have never come from chasing prices: others see only surface prices, but if you can identify hidden variables ahead of time, you can redefine asset values. To find opportunities in the crypto space, you have to catch the main trend. The sustainability of the current widespread growth won't be strong because what we're speculating on is liquidity expectations, and there's no real incremental capital flowing in, mostly driven by speculative behavior due to emotional explosions; now RB carries a bit of that flavor.

This year, the US stock market and the crypto market have clearly been like a seesaw, with liquidity insufficient on a macro scale, failing to overflow into Crypto; essentially, different asset classes are vying for market attention.

My personal judgment is that we’re currently in a phase of long, slow declines; it won't take off immediately. Everyone is waiting for a bull market, but there’s still one last step to go. Preserving principal is always the priority; just hop on when the opportunity arises.

By the way, about ZEC, I’m curious after chatting with friends; the narrative they're providing is to sell mining machines to pump prices, which is an old story. Attention is still being placed on new things, preferring new over old. The hype, pons, lit, and vvv are worth collecting for observation; I feel there might still be iconic Memes coming from RB in the future, but the timing isn't right yet.

Currently, there are live broadcasts every day; welcome to continuously follow AiCoin friends! Reserve your spot early 👇

https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/live/list?tab=upcoming

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!

Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn

AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

Aster cashback: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2

Hype cashback: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88

Binance cashback: https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=3   Invite code: aicoin668 

Coinbase cashback: https://jump.do/xlink?checkProxy=true&proxyId=25    Invite code: Y8L23JL 
 

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。