CPI night staged a classic pin insertion harvest, with Bitcoin surging from 76046 to 79890 and then retreating to 77244. Ethereum soared from 2403 to 2666 before falling back to 2510; all late buyers got trapped at the peak. On-chain capital engaged in intense long-short battles: Fireblocks transferred 149.8 million USDT in 13 days to power up buying, while market maker Wintermute deposited 61,800 ETH in 3 hours to prepare for selling. From a technical perspective, all three varieties are below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart, clearly in a bearish trend, but the 15-minute chart indicates extreme overselling that requires a rebound. Short-term trading strategy: focus on shorting during rebounds, fast entries and exits for oversold situations, without holding overnight.
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1. Macroeconomic Interpretation: CPI night pin insertion harvest, capital struggles fiercely at 77,000
Last night, the CPI data came out, and the market reacted in a very classic way. The data exceeded expectations by 0.3%, with Bitcoin initially pinning to 76046, then violently surging to 79890, a needle movement of 2800 points. All late buyers were trapped at the peak, and all short sellers were stopped out. Ethereum was even more exaggerated, moving from 2403 to 2666, a needle movement of 260 points, with a total liquidation of 522 million dollars in the past four hours across the network, with ETH alone accounting for 268 million; high-leverage long positions were thoroughly cleansed.

This kind of market cannot be estimated linearly as a news event explodes; at the moment the data comes out, whether you are long or short, you will incur losses. The only way to profit is through quick entries and exits on the minute charts, with profits capped at 300 points. If greed arises for greater profits, it results in profit withdrawal or even loss of capital.

Currently, there are two entirely opposite signals on-chain:

Bullish signal: Fireblocks' custody wallet transferred 149.8 million USDT stablecoins to Binance in 13 days, which is solid potential buying strength; substantial inflows of stablecoins into exchanges are traditionally seen as a precursor to institutional accumulation. Binance's BTC reserves have surpassed 690,000, with strong buying willingness near 75,000.

Bearish signal: Market maker Wintermute deposited 61,800 ETH, worth approximately 160 million dollars, into Binance and Coinbase in three hours. Actions by market makers often indicate an increase in short-term selling pressure. The PPI rise of 5.4% has driven the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September to 70%, with macroeconomic pressures still looming.

One is building up for a bottom entry, while the other is transferring chips in preparation for selling; these two forces are engaged in intense battles near 77,000. My judgment is: there is a short-term demand for a rebound, but the overall trend has turned bearish; rebounds present opportunities for shorts, not reversal signals. Short trades should only be intraday, without holding positions overnight, with quick entries and exits.

2. Bitcoin Range: Pin insertion followed by retreat, 77500-77600 for shorting, 76800-77000 for betting on rebounds
Price moved from 76046 to 79890, then quickly retreated to 77244, currently oscillating around 77000. There is buyer strength below 77,000, and it quickly rebounds after breaking.

1-hour level: TD Up:3, uptrend initiated from the low of 76046, counting the rise to number 3. The Bollinger Bands middle band is at 77497, with the price still below the middle band. MACD green bar at -55.94 indicates bearish momentum is still present. KDJ K 43, J 59, neutral.

15-minute level: TD Down:2 initiated a pullback from the high of 77383. The Bollinger Bands middle band is at 77251, with the price near the middle band. MACD red bar at 21.08 indicates short-term rebound momentum. KDJ K 31, J 10, oversold area, short-term need for a rebound.

▎Resistance Levels

First resistance: 77500-77600 (1-hour Bollinger middle band + EMA55 dividing line)
Strong resistance area: 78200-78500 (4-hour MA30 resistance)
▎Support Levels

Core support: 77000-76800 (recent oscillation area + round number)
Strong support: 76000 (CPI low of 76046)
Short-term Trading Reference:

🔹 Short (main strategy): if a rebound reaches the 77400-77600 area and meets resistance, look for a long upper shadow or top divergence, attempt a small short position, stop loss at 77800, target 77000→76800, intraday trade without holding overnight

🔹 Betting on rebounds (only for short-term trades): if a pullback stabilizes in the 76800-77000 area and there is a sign of stopping the decline in 15 minutes, attempt a small long position, stop loss at 76500, target 77400→77600, must take profits at resistance levels, do not be greedy

⚠️ Key point: the price is operating below the EMA55 at the 1-hour level, and has not stood above it in the past 8 candlesticks; a bearish pattern has been established. 77617 is the dividing line for long and short positions; if it cannot break above, then any rebound is an opportunity for shorting. Short trades should only be intraday; leave when the target is hit, do not hold positions.

3. Ethereum Range: Retreated from 2666, 2520-2540 for shorting, 2460-2480 for betting on rebounds
ETH is currently at 2510, rebounding from 2403 to 2666 during CPI night and then quickly falling back, exhibiting the most volatility among the three varieties. 1-hour KDJ K13, J5 indicates extreme overselling, thus requiring a short-term rebound.

1-hour level: TD Down:1 initiated a downtrend from the high of 2666. The Bollinger Bands middle band is at 2524, with the price below it. MACD green bar at -11.69 indicates released bearish momentum. KDJ K13, J5 indicates extreme overselling, suggesting a potential rebound at any moment.

15-minute level: TD Down:1 initiated a pullback from the high of 2514. The Bollinger Bands middle band is at 2512, with the price near the middle band. MACD red bar at 1.99 indicates a tight struggle between long and short. KDJ K46, J37 is neutral.

▎Resistance Levels

First resistance: 2520-2540 (1-hour Bollinger middle band + previous oscillation area)
Strong resistance area: 2560-2580 (CPI night pullback platform)
▎Support Levels

Core support: 2460-2480 (near the 1-hour Bollinger lower band)
Strong support: 2430-2400 (CPI low of 2403)
Short-term Trading Reference:

🔹 Short (main strategy): if a rebound reaches the 2520-2540 area and meets resistance, attempt a small short position, stop loss at 2560, target 2480→2460, intraday trade without holding overnight

🔹 Betting on rebounds (only for short-term trades): if a pullback stabilizes in the 2460-2480 area and a sign of stopping the decline appears after extreme overselling on the 1-hour chart, attempt a small long position, stop loss at 2440, target 2520→2540, must take profits at resistance levels

⚠️ Note: Wintermute’s deposit of 61,800 ETH is a short-term bearish signal; market maker actions typically precede price changes. ETH has greater volatility than Bitcoin, so keep contract positions lighter and allow room for stop losses. The extreme overselling at 1-hour may see a rebound, but any rebounds in the resistance area should still be focused on shorting; quick entries and exits are advisable.

4. Gold Range: Retreated from 4438, 4380-4400 for shorting, 4300-4320 for betting on rebounds
Gold is currently at 4355, rebounding from 4295 to 4438 during CPI night and then retracting to 4355; 15-minute KDJ indicates extreme overselling.

1-hour level: TD Down:1 initiated a downtrend from the high of 4438. The Bollinger Bands middle band is at 4360, with the price below it. MACD green bar at -0.33 indicates released bearish momentum. KDJ K50, J66 is somewhat high.

15-minute level: TD Down:6 initiated a pullback from the high of 4365, advancing to number 6. The Bollinger Bands middle band is at 4357, with the price below it. MACD red bar at -0.07 indicates a struggle between long and short. KDJ K17, J-24 indicates extreme overselling, requiring a short-term rebound.

▎Resistance Levels

First resistance: 4380-4400 (1-hour Bollinger middle band + previous resistance)
Strong resistance area: 4430-4440 (near CPI high of 4438)
▎Support Levels

Core support: 4320-4300 (recent oscillation area)
Strong support: 4295 (CPI low)
Short-term Trading Reference:

🔹 Short (main strategy): if a rebound reaches the 4380-4400 area and meets pressure, attempt a small short position, stop loss at 4420, target 4340→4320, intraday trade without holding overnight

🔹 Betting on rebounds (only for short-term trades): if a pullback stabilizes in the 4300-4320 area and there is a sign of stopping the decline after extreme overselling in 15 minutes, attempt a small long position, stop loss at 4285, target 4360→4380, quick entries and exits

⚠️ Key logic: PPI rose by 5.4%, increasing interest rate expectations; US Treasury yield is at a high level, placing gold in a bearish overall trend. The rebound during CPI night is merely a corrective move after extreme overselling, not a reversal. Short trades should only be intraday and exit when the target is reached.

5. Suggestions for Resolving Held Positions (Short-term Thinking)
Last night's CPI night pin insertion event caused many friends' long positions to get trapped at 79000-79800 (Bitcoin) and 2600-2666 (Ethereum). Resolve held positions with short-term thinking, do not wait:

Bitcoin long positions (trapped above 79000):

Take advantage of a rebound to the 77500-78000 area to reduce positions or stop-loss and exit.
After exiting, short in the reverse direction to offset losses from long positions.
The time for the bullish recovery will not exceed two days; this is the only opportunity.
Ethereum long positions (trapped above 2600):

Similarly, reduce positions or stop-loss during the rebound to the 2540-2560 area.
Short in the reverse direction, with quick entries and exits.
Do not use high leverage again; the risk is too high.
The core principle: for those already trapped, find a sufficiently high position to cut your long positions while entering short positions; losses can be recovered. Do not wait for resolution; as the overall trend has turned bearish, waiting only leads to deeper traps.

6. Summary
CPI night staged a classic pin insertion harvest, with Bitcoin moving 2800 points and Ethereum moving 260 points; all late buyers got trapped at the peak. On-chain capital battles: 149.8 million USDT flowed in to strengthen buying power, while Wintermute deposited 61,800 ETH in preparation for selling. Technically, all three varieties are below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour level, with a clear bearish trend, but the extreme overselling on the 15-minute level indicates a need for a rebound.

Short-term trading thoughts:

Bitcoin rebounds at 77400-77600 for shorting, with a pullback at 76800-77000 for lightly betting on rebounds, no positions held overnight.
Ethereum rebounds at 2520-2540 for shorting, with a pullback at 2460-2480 for lightly betting on rebounds, quick entries and exits.
Gold focuses on rebounding at 4380-4400 for shorting, with a pullback at 4300-4320 for lightly betting on rebounds.
Friends with held positions should take advantage of this rebound over the next two days to reduce long positions and short in the opposite direction; do not wait for resolution. All positions should strictly carry stop losses, exit when targets are hit, avoiding holding onto positions or being greedy.

💬 Interactive Topic: During last night's CPI night pin insertion event, did you get stopped out or seize the opportunity? Share your actions in the comments.

⚠️ Risk Reminder: The above content is merely a technical logical analysis for market trends, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets are highly volatile, and contract trading carries extremely high risks; please trade rationally, control positions strictly, use stop losses, and bear your own profits and losses.

Thank you for the trust and companionship of all family members; market trends change rapidly, and steady compounding is the long-term path. I am Jiangye, see you in the next issue.

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