Today is Sunday, and it is also a critical time window for the week’s K-line closing. During the Asian trading session, due to overall low liquidity, fluctuations are typically not too large, but as we approach the weekly closing, the competition between buyers and sellers around key positions may become more apparent.

Yesterday, the market again exhibited a typical low liquidity short squeeze, quickly rising in the afternoon before returning to the support zone, indicating that the current market has still not truly escaped the fluctuation structure.

The real determinants of the market will be a series of significant events in the new week.

First is the FOMC meeting on September 16. The market currently has very high expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike. If the rate hike is confirmed and the statement remains hawkish, risk assets may still face new selling pressure; conversely, if there are unexpected dovish signals, the divergence in market expectations could trigger short covering, leading to a quick rebound.

At the same time, the procedural vote related to the CLARITY Act on September 15 could also disturb crypto market sentiment.

Therefore, the biggest risk at the moment is not simply being bullish or bearish, but rather the rapid spikes and false breakouts triggered by the convergence of major events and market expectation gaps.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Overall bearish, but pay attention to buying opportunities on sharp dips.

Currently, BTC is trading in the lower middle of the fluctuation range. Short-term momentum has weakened, but a truly significant trend break has not yet been formed.

Market sentiment is also cooling down. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen from previous overheated areas to near neutral, indicating that after a series of high-level fluctuations, investor willingness to chase prices has started to diminish.

However, the continued support from institutions and spot funds means that the lower support still has a certain resilience. Therefore, the current position is not suitable for directly shorting; instead, it is better to wait for prices to enter key areas.

There are currently two important levels:

Upper 81300—an important breakthrough testing level to truly open a new round of upward space.
Lower 76400—the most crucial defensive line of the current fluctuation box.

As long as 76400 is not effectively broken, the market will continue to be processed within the larger fluctuation range. If there is a quick downward spike during trading and noticeable support appears, it could instead present short-term buying opportunities.

If a rebound enters the 78500—80000 area, continue to observe the pressure at high levels.

Support: 76400, 77000
Resistance: 78500-79000, 80000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Overall bearish, but pay attention to buying opportunities on sharp dips.

ETH has performed significantly better than BTC in the last two days, with the core driving factor still coming from the strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.

This independent trend requires special attention to one point:

When the exchange rate rises, ETH shows greater elasticity, but if the exchange rate rapidly retreats, ETH usually declines faster than BTC.

Therefore, the cost-effectiveness of chasing prices at the current position has decreased.

From a technical structure perspective, ETH is still operating above the 20-day EMA, providing certain support for a moderately strong medium-term structure; RSI is around 63.6, and although buying pressure remains dominant, it has not yet entered an extreme overbought state, thus there is still room for short-term testing of upward pressure.

If there is a noticeable stagnation after hitting the 2550—2610 area again, high-level pullbacks need to be guarded against; if there is a quick retest to the 2500 or even 2450—2460 areas with noticeable support, then short-term buying opportunities can still be considered.

Support: 2500-2510, 2450-2460
Resistance: 2550, 2580, 2610, 2660
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