Bitcoin continued to fluctuate narrowly around $77,200 over the weekend. On September 11, it briefly rose to nearly 80,000 before retreating, and the trading volume shrank over the next two days, with the price failing to recover 78,500 or break below 76,500. This is a typical "structure remains, but momentum is insufficient": the daily chart still holds above the 20 / 50 / 200-day moving averages, but short-term momentum is dull, suitable for a range-bound mindset, not for betting on a single direction.
The market is indicating
The rebound in August lifted the price from a low to around 82,000, and September has entered a digestion phase. The 365-day moving average is about 81,700, coinciding with the round numbers of 80,000–82,000, forming a near-term ceiling. Below, 76,500 is a demand zone that has been defended multiple times in the past two weeks; further down, 75,000 is a stop-loss and sentiment level, while 72,500–73,000 is the medium-term dividing line near the 200-day line.
With low liquidity over the weekend, false spikes and false breakouts tend to be biased to the upside. Current prices are stuck in the middle of the range, with the worst risk-reward ratio; it is preferable to wait for a symmetrical move rather than opening positions now.
Key levels (September 13)
Support, from near to far:
• 76,500–76,800: first demand, lower edge of the range
• 75,000: round number, volatility will significantly increase after breaking
• 72,500–73,000: around the 200-day moving average, whether the medium-term bullish trend still holds
Resistance, from near to far:
• 78,000–78,500: the first cap of the most recent rebounds
• 80,000: round number + early month's retest zone
• 81,500–82,000: compression zone of the 365-day line and previous high
• 83,000–86,000: valuation and liquidation are relatively concentrated, true breakthroughs need to be verified here
Three scenarios
1. Baseline: Continue in the range (current main scenario)
The operating range is still seen as 75,500–80,500. Near 76,500–76,800, gradually trying to go long and reducing positions as it rebounds to 78,500–80,000. Avoid chasing in the middle of the range (which is currently this area).
2. Bullish: Daily closes above 78,700
Requires trading volume to return, not just a shadow wick. Target 80,000 → 81,700. Invalidated: Closes back below 76,800.
3. Bearish: Daily effectively breaks below 75,000
Next stop to look at 72,500–73,000. Do not catch the falling knife immediately after breaking 75,000; wait for the slope to slow down and for a clear reversal candlestick before considering.
Operational framework (for reference only)
• Current price about 77,250: wait and see or very light positions, waiting for direction.
• Long trial area: stabilize at 76,500–76,800 (not breaking for 4 hours or quickly recovering), stop loss below 75,800, first target 78,000–78,500, second target 80,000.
• Short trial area: rebound to 78,500–79,000 stagnates, light positions high sell, stop loss above 80,200, target looking back at 77,000–76,500.
• Set a fixed loss on each transaction, for example, net account value at 0.5%–1%; reduce leverage again over the weekend.
In brief
Wait for the lower edge, reduce at the upper edge, and do nothing in the middle. 76,500 is the first line of defense for bulls; 78,700 is the first switch for bears. The structure hasn’t broken, but the weekend hasn’t given direction; price levels are more important than predictions.
The above is a summary of the market and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and may result in the loss of all principal.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。