Core Summary

1.Interest rate hike expectations soar: Driven by a higher-than-expected 5.4% year-on-year PPI for the U.S. in August and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East pushing Brent crude oil over $108, market bets on a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting (September 16-17) have surged to 85%-90%. If it materializes, this will be the first tightening restart since July 2023.

2.Zer0-interest assets hit hardest: Bitcoin (BTC) has been pressured by macro tightening expectations, repeatedly facing resistance in the $76,000-$78,000 range, with a cumulative decline of over 4% in the past 7 days.

3.Washington gambles and legislative collisions: Trump publicly pressures newly appointed Fed Chair Warsh to "have the lowest global interest rates," creating sharp conflict with market rate hike expectations; meanwhile, the Senate is set to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure Bill) on September 15, but the legislation's favorable impact may be hard to counteract against the macro rate pressure.

In-depth Attribution

1. Interest Rate Expectation Difference Is The First 'Knife': The Rate Cut Narrative Has Been Completely Disproved

The U.S. August PPI rose by 5.4% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations; subsequently, the August CPI showed a 3.4% year-on-year increase, with core CPI rising by 0.3%, combined with rising oil prices due to the Middle East situation, causing the market to quickly reprice for a Fed rate hike in September. After the PPI was released on September 10, the probability of a rate hike rose to about 70%; after the CPI was released, it further increased to around 85%, and by September 14, market pricing stood at approximately 86%.
This indicates that the previously anticipated logic of "continuing easing" is being rewritten.

2. Geopolitics and Oil Prices Are The 'Second Shoe': The Inflation Transmission Chain Blocks Easing Space

The situation in the Middle East has further deteriorated. On September 13, a key east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was closed due to a drone attack. This pipeline can transport about 4 million barrels of crude oil daily, and a long-term shutdown could affect about 4% of global oil supply.
Subsequently, Brent crude oil surged back to around $107, and WTI also broke $100, with oil prices rising approximately 8% within a week. Oil prices breaking the $100 mark have created a self-reinforcing mechanism of "supply disruption → oil price surge → core inflation stickiness → central bank forced to high rates," which directly extinguishes market fantasies of an easing cycle within the year.

3. Political Will vs Central Bank Independence: Institutional Games Raise Risk Premiums

Trump has recently continued to demand that the Federal Reserve lower interest rates and stated that the U.S. should have the lowest global interest rates; meanwhile, he suggested that if countries with trade deficits do not meet U.S. demands, trade might be halted. Trump's public request for rate cuts places the Fed in a dilemma: If it complies with political pressure to lower rates, it would harm the central bank's credibility in combating inflation; if it insists on raising rates, it faces political conflict. The market currently places a high probability on the Fed maintaining its independence. This tug-of-war between politics and monetary policy is systematically elevating the macro uncertainty premium for crypto assets.

4. BTC Continues to Weaken Amid Macroeconomic Pressure

Since September 4, BTC has weakened from around $79,800, briefly touching $80,559 on September 9, before dropping back to around $77,000.

As of now:

● BTC: Approximately $76,856, 24h -0.52%, 7 days -4.28%

● ETH: Approximately $2,477, 24h -1.86%

● SOL: Approximately $99.4, 24h -2.33%

● Net outflow of BTC in 24h is about $406 million

● Net outflow of ETH in 24h is about $563 million

● Fear and Greed Index: 57, still in the 'Greed' range

(The above market and capital data sources: AiCoin)

Additionally, Binance reserves have reached a two-year high, with a significant concentration of holdings in the $83,000-$85,000 range. Short-term holders with unrealized profits are at a high level, and the transfer of holdings to exchanges reflects a strong risk-averse tendency—once price fluctuations occur, these holdings are likely to quickly convert to selling pressure.

Potential Impacts

Short-term (Before and After the Rate Decision):

1.Downward Test: BTC retains a long upper shadow above $80, with heavy selling pressure above. If the Fed implements a rate hike, BTC will likely test support at $75,000; if the rate hike is confirmed and the market views it as the 'shoe dropping,' a brief rebound may occur.

2.Unexpected No Rate Hike: If the Fed chooses to remain cautious under political pressure, it will be seen by the market as a strong counter-catalyst, leading to a violent valuation correction for risk assets.

Long-term (Regulatory and Valuation Ceiling):

1.Regulatory Milestone: If the CLARITY Act is passed, U.S. crypto regulation will transition from 'enforcement-style' to 'legislation-style,' long-term benefiting compliant exchanges and stablecoin infrastructure.

2.Valuation Suppression: The restart of the tightening cycle will systematically suppress the valuation ceiling of zero-interest assets. The crypto market will accelerate the shift from 'liquidity premium-driven' to 'fundamentals-driven,' where assets with real cash flows and clear grounded scenarios (such as compliant payments, stablecoins, RWA) will significantly outperform purely narrative-driven assets.

'One-time rate hike as the endpoint' is wishful thinking, and the market may be overly optimistic if pricing solely based on a 'one-time rate hike.' If inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, the tightening cycle may evolve into a series of consecutive rate hikes (forward contracts have started betting on multiple rate hikes). The dot plot and forward guidance after the rate meeting (whether to maintain a hawkish stance) are where the real risks lie.

Data is not a conclusion, but a stable, structured data flow is the starting point for making judgments.

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This article is for market information and data analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.

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