Author: Gemini, Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: The August major asset report from Crypto.com Research shows that SOL, ETH, and BTC rose by 41.5%, 32.6%, and 25.0% respectively in the month, far exceeding Nasdaq's 3.9% and gold's 9.9%. This seems more like a risk appetite recovery after significant declines in the first half of the year, rather than confirmation of a new round of comprehensive bull market. Currently, prices have retraced to around Bitcoin's $77,000; the real test will be this week's FOMC.

August was almost the most 'story-telling' month for the crypto market in nearly a year.

Bitcoin rose 25.0%, Ethereum rose 32.6%, and Solana rose 41.5% in a single month. In the same period, U.S. stocks did not perform weakly, with the Nasdaq rising 3.9%, the S&P 500 rising 2.6%, and gold also increasing by 9.9%. However, real estate pulled back 4.0%, and global bonds continued to face pressure.

In just one month, crypto assets have re-established themselves as the most resilient type among global risk assets. But high resilience does not equate to a trend reversal.

YTD data shows divergence

Despite a strong upward momentum in August, the year-to-date (YTD) returns of crypto assets have not turned positive due to price corrections in the first half of the year.

According to the report, as of the end of August, BTC's YTD return was -10.3%, ETH was -17.0%, and SOL was -17.3%. In contrast, traditional risk assets have maintained positive growth this year, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices having YTD returns of +12.3% and +13.5%, respectively, and overall commodity increases reaching 28.9%.

Market analysis suggests that the August crypto market trends were mainly about valuation recovery following earlier declines. Funds were re-priced in August, but a complete repositioning of core asset holdings has not been achieved.

Institutional funds continue to flow in, TradFi advances layout

On the funding side, spot ETFs constituted the main support for buying in August. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded approximately $3.5 billion in net inflow in August, the highest monthly inflow since October 2025. The Ethereum spot ETF also gained about $1.8 billion in net inflow during the same period.

Meanwhile, traditional finance (TradFi) continued to push forward with the integration of crypto assets in August. BlackRock expanded the scale of its tokenized money market fund, and Charles Schwab further developed crypto services. Additionally, the issuance of tokenized stocks and RWA assets in the market is also increasing, indicating that compliant funding channels are widening.

Macro resistance: Market closely watches this week's FOMC decision

As we enter mid-September, spot trading volume in the crypto market has slowed down, with the market waiting for new macro catalysts.

Currently, traders’ primary focus is on the Federal Reserve's (FOMC) policy meeting held on September 15th to 16th. Macro data shows that the U.S. August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation demonstrating some stickiness. Coupled with recent hints from the new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh leaning towards tightening, the CME rate watch tool indicates that the market currently prices an 85% probability for a 25 basis point interest rate hike this week.

Analysts point out that if the Federal Reserve raises rates as expected or maintains a hawkish stance, crypto assets sensitive to real interest rates may face downward pressure in the short term; conversely, if the policy attitude eases, it will provide the market with liquidity support for the next steps.