This time many partners believe that interest rate hikes are certain, so there's no need to dwell on it; anyway, we will know in less than two days. The key is how the Federal Reserve's path will be after today, that is to say, how the dot plot should point.

The ratio from the July meeting was 9:3, with 3 voting members explicitly calling for a 25 basis point rate hike: Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan.

Changes occurring after the meeting are more important. In addition to the original three people, five other voting members made similar remarks suggesting a rate hike or that the market should interpret it as a rate hike.

Lisa Cook: On August 5, she clearly stated that if it is necessary to bring down inflation, I would support a rate hike. If we do not see sustained disinflation soon, be prepared to act. This represents a very clear conditional stance on rate hikes.

Michael Barr: On September 1, he said that if inflation does not sufficiently cool down, the FOMC should act decisively to raise rates. This also represents a clear conditional support.

Anna Paulson: On August 4, she stated that if underlying inflation remains persistently high, then as time passes without progress on inflation, it in itself indicates the need for tighter monetary policy. Although she did not directly say a rate hike in September, the direction is clearly hawkish.

Christopher Waller: On September 3, he said that if inflation heats up again, he would consider a rate hike. However, at that time his baseline tendency was still to maintain the current interest rate if disinflation continues.

Kevin Warsh: At Jackson Hole, he stated that if we cannot be sure that inflation is returning to 2% at a sufficiently fast pace, the Federal Reserve still has work to do. The market generally interprets this as opening the door to rate hikes, but he never directly said he supports a rate hike in September.

So I personally believe that currently, there should be 5 Federal Reserve voting members who clearly express support for a rate hike, while there are 12 voting members in total. According to the current statements, at least 1 more person is needed to reach a tie, and 2 more to ensure a rate hike.

However, if a rate hike really occurs in September, the inflation data seen in October for September could very likely be higher. If Hormuz really ends up delaying the unblocking until November or even longer, then it is very possible that there is still a probability of a rate hike in both October and December.

Additionally, let's look at the dot plot. The dot plot may be more hawkish than the actual situation.

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