The new week begins, and the market directly enters a 24-hour short squeeze. The core reason for the current rebound in BTC is that the daily line is gradually entering the bottom repair zone; although ETH performs relatively stronger, a large part of its momentum still comes from the BTC rebound and the strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
Currently, BTC is slightly neutral, while ETH is slightly bullish, with a noticeable divergence in strength between the two. This structure resembles capital rotation within a fluctuating box, rather than the entire market having begun a new round of unilateral rise.
More importantly, this week has entered the true "eye of the event storm."
Today, the market is focused on the procedural vote related to the CLARITY Act, followed by the upcoming FOMC decision. As policy expectations continue to rise, both BTC and ETH's rebounds are directly exposed to discrepancies in macro expectations.
Therefore, the most important thing in the next two days is not to guess the rise or fall, but to **follow the market, position at key levels, strictly limit losses, and not get carried away.** Once there is a significant deviation between the final result and the market's earlier pricing, whether hawkish or dovish, it could quickly trigger a short squeeze, kill the long positions, or even a double kill of both long and short positions.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Go short at high and long at low; focus on a fluctuating mindset before the event lands.
BTC is currently still within the lower part of the large box of 76400-82400, and short-term momentum has improved somewhat, but it has not yet formed a trend breakthrough.
The MACD has been running in a bearish zone since forming a death cross about 10 days ago, but the histogram has narrowed from about -781 to around -652, indicating that bearish momentum is marginally weakening.
At the same time, the medium-term structure remains resilient, and the lower fund support has not disappeared.
On the contract side, there is also no obvious overheating. The weighted funding rate for BTC positions and trading volume remains around 0.009, which is at a relatively neutral level, indicating that the current long and short forces are still quite balanced.
Therefore, it is not appropriate to heavily bet on one side before the event lands:
Observe support on pullbacks for acceptance, and see resistance on surges for stagnation; only switch to a trend mindset after a true breakout.
Support: 77400-77700, 76000-76400
Resistance: 78500-79000, 79500-80000, 80700
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
Viewpoint: Go short at high and long at low; simultaneously observe BTC and the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
ETH has recently been stronger relative to BTC, but its independent performance largely comes from the continuous rise of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
Therefore, ETH now needs to observe two directions: BTC determines the overall market's risk appetite, while ETH/BTC determines ETH's relative strength to BTC. Whichever side experiences large fluctuations, ETH tends to follow that side.
From a technical perspective, the daily MACD red bars have begun to shorten, the DIF is gradually approaching the DEA, and bullish momentum is waning, indicating that the market has entered a high-level consolidation phase.
On the 4-hour chart, a death cross has formed, and short-term bearish strength has begun to release, but it is currently more appropriate to define this as a correction after an increase, rather than a large trend reversal.
RSI is around 56.6, still in a neutral to strong zone, thus leaving room for another test of resistance above.
The most critical risk to guard against now is: **sudden weakness in BTC + concurrent decline in the ETH/BTC exchange rate.** If both occur simultaneously, ETH's downside elasticity often amplifies significantly.
Support: 2485-2500, 2466
Resistance: 2550-2563, 2580-2610, 2660
Tencent Meeting 24-hour live broadcast room: 994-517-5076
Aicoin group chat search for Huiying Community or click the group link to join: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=onjrNpKn6
This article is published by 【Huiying Community】, representing individual views only. Due to potential delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
For more timely daily market analysis and strategy ideas, feel free to add Safew's contact information or add the three lines: HYSQks888, to join the group for free study.
The community has 15 professional analysts monitoring the market live all day. Here, you can learn technical analysis methods in practice and systematically understand the strategies for unbinding and risk control systems.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
