Some time ago, I saw someone on the internet describing two recent phenomena:

First, many people missed out on this round of the cryptocurrency asset price surge, and feelings of frustration and regret have begun to spread again.

Second, recently quite a few previously exited funds, especially venture capital (VC), have started to return and pay attention to the crypto ecosystem, such as focusing on the recently popular area of stock tokenization.

I recalled a perspective shared in a previous article (I don’t remember the specific piece) that Lin Yuan once shared with everyone (the gist is):

He believes that investors must remain in a bear market to have a chance of catching the bull market. He has never seen anyone who expects to leave during a bear market and then rush back in before a bull market starts to seize the opportunity; at least, he doesn't have such people around him.

I strongly agree with this statement.

Lin Yuan's words highlight a speculative tendency of many ordinary retail investors that I often share in articles.

This speculation has a very typical, popular, and highly praised approach online: “left-side trading”, “right-side trading”, and so on.

If we apply this speculative method to buying and selling Bitcoin and seize this round of opportunity, what would be the ideal operation?

It would be to decisively exit when Bitcoin hits $120,000 in October 2025, and then enter around August 19th of this year when Bitcoin is at $64,000.

Subsequently, starting from August 19th, Bitcoin surged to $79,000 within just two days by August 21st.

This ideal operation not only perfectly avoided nearly a year of bear market but also accurately captured the starting point of this round of price movement.

According to many, this maximizes the efficiency of capital use.

But I feel this is more like pushing the abacus to extremes.

I estimate that the vast majority of those who claim to have missed this round of opportunity are ordinary retail investors who hold such speculative thoughts but lack the ability to speculate.

In reality, they would not have made money in this market; the opportunities and circumstances here are fundamentally unrelated to this type of person.

Capturing this round of opportunity actually reflects the natural returns that should be received by those who endured nearly a year of bear market and continued to hold on here.

As for the funds and VCs that previously left and are now returning to pay attention to the crypto ecosystem, it becomes even more interesting.

Some of the hot areas they focus on upon their return (such as stock tokenization) are not new developments; clearly, these areas have not just emerged in the past few months, but teams have been cultivating and building them for years.

These dedicated teams truly needed funding, attention, and help during the most challenging times of the past few years.

If they really had foresight and believed in the growth of these areas, what were they doing all these past years?

What were they doing last year and earlier this year?

They left when funding and help were most needed, and now they return, probably not because they suddenly found potential in these areas, but because they suddenly noticed that the market is improving, and they are considering seizing this moment of good market conditions to grab some popular projects for “capital operation,” right?

I believe that projects that will shine in the future bull market are definitely those that were nurtured during the bear market, and will never be projects that chase trends or time the market.

And how many of those projects that can persist even in a bear market will want investments from such funds?

Thus, it is very difficult for funds or VCs to find truly good projects with this kind of mindset when returning to the market now.

Lin Yuan’s words apply to this type of fund as well, leading to a similar conclusion:

To catch the future big bull projects, you must also stay within this ecosystem during the bear market, investing in projects that are still persevering and building during the bear market.

Not dreaming of leaving during the bear market and entering right before the bull market starts.

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