Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market experienced a typical **“stealth kill” trend**. BTC closed the daily line with a large bearish candle, briefly dropping below 75,000. Although ETH did not refresh the low of this adjustment cycle, it similarly approached the previously important support area, and market sentiment quickly weakened.
The biggest variable currently has come to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. As the market continues to adjust its expectations for the interest rate path, the FOMC results and post-meeting statements may further amplify the volatility of risk assets.
If the policy outcome is clearly hawkish, a concentrated sell-off may occur in the short term; however, it is important to note that previous spot funds have continuously supported at low levels, so even in the event of an emotional sharp drop, it cannot be simply interpreted as the trend being completely over.
After yesterday's rapid price drop, the short cycle has accumulated clear repair demand. Thus, during the day, it is more necessary to guard against a technical rebound, and the risk-reward ratio for continuing to short at the bottom has clearly decreased.
The more suitable rhythm currently is:
Look for repair after the sharp drop → Observe pressure during the rebound → Judge the true direction after the FOMC outcome.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Look for low-level repair first, then focus on short opportunities after encountering resistance during the rebound.
After BTC broke below 75,000 yesterday, it has entered an important technical area.
Near 75,600 is simultaneously close to the 20-day moving average and the previous lower boundary of the range, so whether it can be recaptured here is very crucial.
If the price can quickly return above 75,600, it indicates that yesterday's break may still belong to emotional release, and there is potential for continued short-term repair.
Conversely, if the daily line continues to close below 75,600, it means that the previous range structure has been clearly damaged, and there is a need to guard against deeper adjustments in the future.
Lower down, pay close attention to the weekly support near 74,380. After a rapid drop, the strength of fund support in this area will directly affect the subsequent trend.
The funding rates for contracts are still at relatively neutral levels, with no signs of an obvious extreme bullish crowding, so the current situation resembles a risk release ahead of macro events, rather than being purely dominated by high-leverage long positions.
Support: 75,000-75,500, around 74,380
Resistance: 77,300-77,500, 79,000-79,500
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Look for repair first, short after encountering resistance on the rise; 2,288 is the daily lifeline.
Although ETH fell sharply yesterday, it did not refresh the low of this adjustment cycle and showed slightly more resilience compared to BTC in the short term.
From a larger cycle perspective, it can still be defined as a deep correction after an increase, and the bullish structure on the daily line has not been completely destroyed.
The key point to pay attention to is 2,288.
If the daily line can continue to hold above 2,288, the mid-term bullish structure still retains the possibility of repair; if the daily line effectively drops below and cannot quickly recover, it indicates that the original bullish structure has been more obviously damaged, and the downward adjustment space may open further.
Additionally, around 2,253 is an important weekly support area. If the FOMC triggers an extreme spike, the support situation in this area is particularly worthy of attention.
After experiencing yesterday's quick drop, there is also a repair demand in the short term, so it is not advisable to continue shorting at the current position. It is more suitable to wait for a rebound into the 2,448—2,500 range and then judge whether the funds have the ability to continue moving upward.
Support: 2,380, 2,350, 2,288; Weekly focus on 2,253
Resistance: 2,448, 2,484, 2,500, 2,520
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This article is originally published by 【Huaying Community】 and represents only personal opinions. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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