The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a clear "expectation correction." On September 15, the U.S. Senate failed to pass a key procedural vote to advance the CLARITY Act with 49 votes in favor and 50 votes against, falling short by 11 votes from the required 60 votes.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's September FOMC decision countdown has begun, with the market betting that the likelihood of a 25bp rate hike in September has risen to 92.4%. Regulatory legislation has hit a roadblock, rate hike expectations are heating up, and coupled with rising oil prices and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking 5%, the two core expectations that have supported risk asset valuations in recent months are both loosening:
Declining regulatory certainty and weakening macro liquidity expectations.
Additionally, BTC has also fallen below MA30 under this round of pressure.
1. CLARITY Act Blocked: Regulatory Certainty Premium Repriced
On September 15, the Senate held a vote on the procedural advancement of the CLARITY Act, resulting in 49 votes in favor and 50 votes against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold. This was not a final review of the bill's text but a procedural vote to decide whether to continue discussions. However, the outcome exposed a key issue:
The U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, which the market had high hopes for, still cannot form sufficient bipartisan consensus.
The opposition votes did not only come from Democrats; some Republican senators also voted against it, with controversies involving stablecoin yields, conflicts of interest for public officials regarding cryptocurrency assets, national security, and consumer protection issues.
Therefore, while the CLARITY Act is not legally dead, its short-term advancement difficulties have evidently increased, and the market's previous expectation of “quickly completing cryptocurrency market structure legislation in the U.S. this year” must be readjusted, leading to a necessary repricing of the regulatory “certainty premium.”
2. A Real Hard Pressure: 92.4% Rate Hike Expectation
While the CLARITY Act was blocked, the market also faced the macro window of the Federal Reserve's September FOMC.
As of September 16 morning Beijing time, CME FedWatch shows that the market is pricing in a 92.4% probability of a 25bp rate hike in September. A 25bp hike is nearing the market's baseline scenario. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury broke 5% on September 14, reaching a high not seen since 2007. Rising oil prices are generating inflation pressures, coupled with the U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury supply pressures, pushing up long-term yields. Therefore, the real pricing question that the market needs to address has shifted to:
“After the rate hike, how long will rates remain elevated?” and: “Will rising oil prices make inflation stubborn once again?”
For high-volatility risk assets like BTC, this is clearly not an easy macro environment.
3. BTC Falls Below MA30: Two Expectations Weakening Simultaneously
After the CLARITY Act vote failed, BTC fell to around $74,900 but later rebounded to about $76,000. The market shifted from a “policy bull market” back to “liquidity pricing.” Technically, BTC breaking below MA30 also indicates that the short-term trend structure is encountering pressure. The latest Ace smart analysis shows:
Interpreted with a 1-hour candle cycle, the recent K-lines mostly display small fluctuation patterns with long upper and lower shadows. Since the high point of $78,250 on September 15, prices have continuously retreated, currently forming a weak oscillating trend.
On the hourly level, it is in a short-term horizontal adjustment, repeatedly organizing within the range of $78,000 to $75,000, and has still not broken through the previous key wave high of $76,076.
4. Next, Monitor Three Variables
① FOMC Rate Path
A 25bp rate hike has already been highly priced in by the market; the real variable is the dot plot and Powell's statements on the subsequent rate path. To further observe the effects of rate changes on BTC, one can conduct cross-analysis of FOMC events with BTC price, volume, fund flows, and other data, rather than just looking at a single news outcome.
Through the AiCoin open data API, real-time market conditions, candlestick data, active buy-sell volume, order book long-short data, liquidation data, etc., can be directly integrated into one’s quantitative system or data analysis process, transforming market information from “reading news” into computable, monitorable data.
② 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
Whether 5% can hold will directly affect the valuation pressure on risk assets. If oil prices continue to push inflation expectations, long-term yields could become an important variable continually pressuring BTC.
③ Follow-Up Progress on the CLARITY Act
Monitor whether the bill will be renegotiated, whether it will be significantly amended, and whether the SEC/CFTC can further provide regulatory certainty through existing authorities.
The data is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
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