If Bitcoin is rising, does that mean a bull market is back?

Not necessarily.

The current market trend makes it easy for people to make the mistake of seeing a price rebound and start fantasizing about the next big bull run.

However, from this analysis, what truly deserves vigilance is not the "lack of rise," but rather the fact that after reaching a critical position, the market could pull back at any time.

Simply put: Don't rush to chase the bull in the big cycle; instead, be cautious of pullbacks in the small cycle.

This is also the most important phrase for beginners to remember from this live broadcast.

1. Just how tangled is the current market?

Anyone trading recently should have a feeling:

Not trading makes you fear a sudden price surge; jumping in causes anxiety over possibly buying at a high point.

The volatility of BTC and ETH is not as exciting as before, and although there seem to be plenty of opportunities in altcoins, very few dare to place hefty bets.

If you trade short-term, it feels like profits are getting harder to seize. If you think long-term, you're left wondering just how long to wait.

Thus, the most awkward aspect of the market right now is:

The direction hasn’t fully materialized, but the price has already reached a point where it can’t be casually chased.

This is why this live analysis didn’t simply tell everyone whether to expect a "rise" or a "fall" next.

Instead, it looked at different cycles separately.

2. What BTC really needs to guard against is not a crash, but rather "a drop after reaching a high position."

First, let's look at the weekly chart.

It was mentioned during the live broadcast that the current weekly structure of BTC hasn’t completely deteriorated yet.

So if a drop occurs later, it can't be simply understood as:

"The bull market has ended; we're immediately entering a bear market."

It's more likely to be a pullback during the rising process.

The issue is: When will this pullback come?

And: How much will it pull back?

3. After 10K, pay attention to the 15-16K range

According to this "absolute top and bottom structure" analysis, the weekly chart has now entered a critical stage.

The area around 10K is an important node.

As the price approaches 15-16K, the analysis suggests that a pullback is also expected.

Beginners don’t need to get tangled in how the "absolute bottom structure" is calculated.

Just remember a simple logic:

Not every price increase means it will keep rising.

As the market rises, it will also have its own rhythm.

A pullback could even last for over a month.

Because one candlestick on the weekly chart represents 7 days.

If there are 5-6 consecutive candlestick adjustments, that translates to 35-42 days.

So, the real challenge is not judging whether "it will pull back."

But rather: Do you have the patience to wait for it to pull back to a position worth focusing on?

4. Why it’s not advisable for beginners to chase after a rise immediately

There’s another detail worth noting.

Currently, BTC retraced from around 126,000 to about 57,700 and has rebounded again.

Many people's first reaction upon seeing this is:

"With such a strong rebound, is the bull market back?"

However, this analysis offers a more cautious response.

Because: A price increase does not equate to confirming a large cycle trend.

Especially since the current weekly MA60 is still exerting downward pressure.

Even though the MA30 has begun to strengthen, it’s still not enough for a confirmed optimistic turn in the large cycle.

So the more reasonable approach now is not to rush to label the market as a "bull market" or a "bear market."

But rather: First observe the critical positions and wait for the market to provide the answer itself.

5. The real focus should be on BTC’s 80,200

If the weekly chart shows the "big direction."

Then on the daily chart, we can start looking for more specific positions.

This analysis has provided a very clear oscillation range:

Upper: around 80,200

Lower: around 77,000

At that time, the price was gradually approaching the upper edge of the 80,200 range.

What does this imply?

Very simply:

The price is at the top of the box.

If it breaks through and stabilizes, the market may continue to open up space.

But if it fails to break through, be wary of the price returning back into the range.

It might even look for support around 77,000.​​​​​​​

6. The easiest mistake: Chasing the rise when at a pressure level

Assuming BTC has reached above the oscillation range.

What would be the most dangerous action at this point?

Seeing the price still rising and immediately jumping in.

Because the position you buy is already close to where others might choose to sell.

Of course, this doesn’t mean you should automatically short as soon as you hit 80,200.

It serves as a reminder:

The closer you get to a key pressure level, the less you should look at just the rise; consider what to do if the rise fails.

If you choose to short, it shouldn't be understood simply as "it will definitely fall here."

The analysis emphasizes:

Leave room for the market.

For example, if the price continues to approach 80,200, you should have your position and plan thought out in advance.

Rather than entering the market and expecting it to move immediately in your direction.

7. One more counter-intuitive point: A pullback does not mean there are no opportunities

I found the most interesting aspect of this analysis to be at the 4-hour level.

The weekly chart is guarding against pullbacks.

The daily chart is observing the oscillation between 80,200 and 77,000.

But at the 4-hour level, another possibility has emerged:

There may actually be rebound opportunities in the short term.

Does that sound a bit contradictory?

Actually, it’s not contradictory.

Because different cycles can inherently exhibit different directions.

For example:

Weekly: Guard against pullbacks

Daily: Observe the range

4-hour: Look for rebounds

This is the true utility of multi-cycle analysis.

In conclusion: Don't rush to guess bull or bear, first learn to wait for positions

The biggest takeaway from this analysis for me has not been learning a new technical indicator.

Rather, it’s the realization that: Trading isn't about guessing rises and falls daily.

More often, it's about waiting for the price to reach a position you understand.

Now if BTC continues to rise, watch to see if it can genuinely break through the key resistance.

If it starts to pull back, focus on the support levels below.

If the large cycle pulls back, but a rebound structure shows up on the 4-hour chart, it doesn't mean there are absolutely no short-term opportunities.

The direction can be anticipated, but the plan must follow the market's movements.

[World Community] Live: Monday at 8 PM

The content above is compiled from the live broadcast by [World Community], where the market rhythm is analyzed from the weekly chart, daily chart, to the 4-hour level, with a focus on BTC’s high-level oscillation, the 80,200 pressure, the 77,000 support, and the relationship between short-term rebounds and pullbacks.

To continuously track the latest market trends and analyses, you can follow the [World Community] live broadcast at 8 PM on Wednesdays on the AiCoin official website.

One-click reservation: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/live

Live room: https://voovmeeting.com/p/5997677955

Risk Warning: The above content is organized based on relevant information and is intended for market review and trading learning purposes only, not constituting any investment advice or profit commitments. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and the market carries significant risks; please make independent judgments and manage your positions and risks appropriately.

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