To put it frankly, the market is already clear that there will be a 25 basis point rate hike today. If it’s just a 25 basis point hike, the impact on the market is not significant. The focus is on the dot plot and the remarks from Waller, especially the dot plot, which may have a greater impact than today’s rate hike.

What the market is most worried about now is that the Federal Reserve has no way to control inflation, and indeed, it really can’t, just like from 2022 to 2023. If the Federal Reserve cannot control it, they may become more aggressive and even re-enter a rate hike cycle, which is what the market is most concerned about.

The market is not worried about one rate hike, but about the continual rate hikes that may follow because inflation cannot be contained. If this continues, the likelihood of triggering an economic recession is very high.

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