According to the dot plot, there will be another rate hike of 25 basis points in 2026, bringing it to 4.25%. Currently, it is 4%. This means there will be another rate hike either in October or December. Well, looking at it, the probability for October is quite high, as inflation in September is likely to rise.

The current forecast for 2027 is that there won't be any rate cuts, maintaining a rate of 4.25%, and cuts will start only in 2028. Of course, there’s no need to worry about 2027 and beyond; as long as the Hormuz issue is resolved, inflation should come down.

This dot plot is quite hawkish; now we just wait for Waller's speech, and I guess Trump is already fuming.

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