The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023, lifting its benchmark range to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. It's the clearest signal yet that Chair Kevin Warsh's inflation talk was never just talk.

"The economy has indeed strengthened," Warsh told reporters at his post-meeting press conference. "Inflation is the problem."

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It's a tidy summary of the bind Warsh finds himself in: agree with President Donald Trump on growth, then hike rates anyway, the opposite of what Trump has been demanding for months. Economic growth isn’t enough to justify a drop in the interest rates, the board has evidently decided.

Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which slows spending and, in theory, limits the inflation that goes along with that. But higher interest rates also generally hurt assets that thrive on cheaper investments, like stocks and Bitcoin. It also makes safe government bonds pay better, pulling cash out of riskier bets.

Asked directly about Trump's reaction to the decision, or what the president expects next, Warsh declined to comment. He fell back on the same line he used at his Jackson Hole keynote in August: "We will deliver price stability. We're committed to a discipline, not a decision."

Markets had already done the math. Wall Street had priced in a 25-basis-point move for weeks, and Bitcoin—though briefly and unexpectedly spiking following the news—in the end barely flinched, trading near $75,500, down about half a percent on the day.

Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview

On artificial intelligence, Warsh was careful to draw a line around his own job.

"I've spent a lot of time thinking about AI," he said, but argued Fed independence means staying out of AI policymaking itself. "The policy decisions on AI are made by other parts of the government. Implications of those decisions have impact on our jobs, and that's what we'll focus on," he said, adding that the Fed cares "much about the implications on the demand side of the economy."

That's consistent with the five task forces Warsh set up earlier this year, one of which is dedicated to studying AI's effect on productivity and jobs, rather than the technology's broader risks.

The Fed's updated projections still point to one more hike before year-end. If Warsh follows through, Wednesday's move won't be the last time Bitcoin and the rest of the market has to shrug off a rate decision it saw coming.

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