Goldman Sachs and Macquarie almost simultaneously revised their views on the Federal Reserve's path: after an FOMC meeting that ended with a vote of 16 in favor, 2 against, and no opposition to the interest rate hike, along with a noticeably hawkish speech by the chairman, Goldman Sachs abandoned its mild script of a "pause after one rate hike in September" and changed its forecast to predict a further 25 basis point rate hike in October; Macquarie took it a step further, extending the tightening over a longer period, predicting further 25 basis point hikes in December this year and in the first quarter of 2027, totaling an additional 50 basis points, effectively carving a scale of "higher rates for longer" into the market. In contrast to the hawkish corrections of the two investment banks, BlackRock warned that the market may be overinterpreting the chairman's wording, believing that the tightening expectations embedded in asset prices may not be fully realized, and this divergence directly impacts the valuation models of crypto-related assets and compliant products. Almost at the same time, the Clarity bill in the U.S. cryptographic regulatory legislation declared failure, leaving compliance boundaries still unclear, while Bitwise, deeply involved in this market, immediately stated that this legislative setback would not undermine the cryptocurrency bull market that has been ongoing since early July. The macro rate expectations are moving towards more "hawkish," while the regulatory framework is not advancing, forcing institutions, platforms, and compliant product issuers to reassess the policy risks and regulatory red lines they are taking on in this market.

Goldman Sachs and Macquarie: Betting on Higher Rates for Longer

In the latest path adjustment, Goldman Sachs shifted from "pausing after another hike in September" to expecting "another hike of 25 basis points in October"; according to a single source, this correction itself represents a repricing of the interest rate curve: what was originally viewed as the end of this round of rate hikes in September has been pushed back to the more uncertain October, meaning that risk-free rates will remain elevated for a longer period, reopening the upward space for long-end yields. For institutions making duration allocations, this is not simply another rate hike, but a vertical shift of the entire curve under the hypothesis of "longer, higher," with the discount factors in the pricing models of risk assets being systematically elevated, directly compressing the valuation space of U.S. growth stocks and on-chain compliant products.

In contrast, Macquarie's route is more hawkish; according to a single source, it expects further 25 basis point hikes in December this year and in the first quarter of 2027, totaling an additional 50 basis points, thus pushing the market debate on "how long high rates will be maintained" into a more direct confrontation over future funding costs. Behind this longer, steeper path is an interpretation of the FOMC voting details: during the meeting, 16 votes were in favor, 2 against, yet there was no opposition to the day's hike, viewed by many institutions as a collective signal that "at least one more hike will come this year," indicating that there are no obvious constraints within the Fed against continued tightening. Coupled with warnings from "Fed spokespeople" that medium- and long-term rate forecasts face upside risks, equities, bonds, and crypto assets marketed as compliant are being forced to accept a reality: the monetary environment no longer provides a tailwind for valuation expansion, and any regulatory finalization or licensing benefit must be recalculated under higher benchmark rate constraints to determine how much excess return they could create for holders.

BlackRock's Contrarian View: Warning Market Misreads the Federal Reserve

After Goldman Sachs, Macquarie, and the "Fed spokespeople" repeatedly highlighted the long-term rate upside risk, BlackRock chose to publicly sing a contrary tune. Its statement directly points to a subtle but key misconception: the market may be overinterpreting the chairman's wording, treating a somewhat hawkish speech as a "roadmap" for continuous rate hikes over the next several meetings, thereby embedding unverified tightening paths into the pricing of bonds, equities, and compliant crypto products. What BlackRock is warning about is the process, not the stance—monetary policy is not locked down by a single press conference, but must be continuously calibrated in light of upcoming data iterations.

Corresponding with this reminder is an analysis by Bloomberg Chief Economist Anna Wong. She pointed out that the chairman's recent speech actually revealed three key independent observation indicators, including the proportion of items in the PCE with inflation rates exceeding 3%, and the second derivative of AI capital expenditures. These indicators themselves signify that the Fed is seeking signals from a more complex structural inflation and technology investment cycle, rather than reacting mechanically to the monthly CPI or unemployment rate. In other words, the decision to hike rates or not will increasingly depend on a dynamic, multidimensional data framework, keeping the variability of the policy path intentionally open, and the more the market treats current wording as a linear commitment, the more likely it will pay the price in a future "overly hawkish → adjustment" pendulum swing. For compliant products, which are extremely sensitive to interest rates, this process of misinterpretation followed by correction not only increases price volatility but also forces platforms and institutions to reevaluate product descriptions, risk disclosures, and duration allocations, making this round of pricing reversal triggered by monetary policy expectation misreading a core risk variable that compliant crypto products and traditional assets will face together.

Clarity Bill Stalled: U.S. Crypto Regulation Path Adds Uncertainty

Just as investment banks collectively adjusted the interest rate path to a tighter stance, the legislative route for U.S. crypto regulation suddenly came to a halt. The Clarity bill, which was seen as a potential means to delineate boundaries for crypto assets between securities, commodities, and new products, declared failure in Congress, leaving behind a succinct conclusion in the brief but without any details of clauses or reasons for disapproval. For regulatory observers, this does not resemble a technical delay but more like a signal: while the Federal Reserve locks in the cost of funds at high levels through successive rate hikes, the U.S. has yet to provide an operable federal-level compliance framework, leaving compliant products, centered on licenses, custody, and information disclosure, wandering in a gray area between "provisional understanding" and "post facto determination."

Bitwise's public statement separates this institutional setback from the persistent optimism of market sentiment. The firm explicitly noted that the failure of the Clarity bill would not disrupt the crypto bull market that began in early July. In its view, the price trend remains driven by marginal changes in liquidity and narratives, rather than the short-term fate of a legislative measure. However, as Goldman Sachs shifted from "pausing after a September hike" to expecting another hike of 25 basis points in October, and Macquarie outlined a further 25-basis-point hike in December this year and in the first quarter of 2027, the misalignment has become clear: the continuous hike in interest rates compresses the risk budget for high-volatility assets, while the stalling of regulatory legislation extends the uncertainty period for compliant identities. In this scenario of "more selective funding amid ongoing rule ambiguity," the future core variable for the U.S. crypto capital market is no longer just price and transactions, but whether institutions are willing to continue to expand their exposure during the regulatory void.

Under Tightening Monetary Environment, Reassessing the Value of Compliant Products and Licenses

After the FOMC passed the rate increase with a unanimous vote of 16 to 2, Goldman Sachs and Macquarie successively adjusted their paths to "higher rates for longer"—Goldman Sachs shifted from "holding steady after September" to anticipating a further hike of 25 basis points in October, while Macquarie further proposed a cumulative 50 basis points of hikes in December this year and in the first quarter of 2027; simultaneously, Gold Finance quoted "Fed spokespersons" reminding of still existing upside risks in long-term rate forecasts. For funders in the crypto market, this means that discount rates and financing costs are both rising, with return requirements also increasing. The most direct response is not chasing higher volatility but compressing leverage and regulatory uncertainty, concentrating risk budgets on assets and platforms with "visible regulatory boundaries."

Under this dual pressure of sustained monetary tightening and the delay in regulatory legislation following the failure of the Clarity bill, the market has started to reprice the "licensed" label: regulated ETFs, compliant custody institutions, and licensed exchanges, while not always the most aggressive in product design and fees, can offer clear legal responsibility chains and audit pathways for institutions and retail investors during high-rate phases, reducing the tail risks of future enforcement and tax retrospectives, and thus their valuations and availability of funds exhibit a "license premium"; in contrast, projects not included in the regulatory framework, even if they perform well in terms of market, face valuation and compliance discounts due to immeasurable potential compliance costs, as the U.S. crypto market is entering a phase of "more expensive financing but more valuable compliant assets."

Dual Uncertainty of Rates and Regulation: The Next Step for the Crypto Industry

Between the divergences of investment banks and asset management giants, the Federal Reserve's path itself remains an unclear curve: Goldman Sachs adjusted from "pausing after a September hike" to forecast a 25 basis point hike in October, while Macquarie extended its view to December this year and the first quarter of 2027, anticipating a cumulative additional 50 basis points; in contrast, BlackRock cautioned the market not to overinterpret the chairman's wording, implying that current asset prices may already have "bet" on overly hawkish scenarios. For compliant crypto assets, this path uncertainty translates directly into oscillations in valuation models and financing costs—if the discount rate continues to rise, the premium for compliance licenses may be partially offset by more expensive funds, while any reversal in expectations could swiftly rewrite fundraising windows and product pricing. In terms of regulation, as the Clarity bill encounters failure in its process, the legislative content and reasons for failure remain ambiguous, yet have not pierced market sentiment: Bitwise publicly stated that this setback would not disrupt the crypto bull market since early July, with funding choosing to continue chasing risk in an environment lacking clear rules, creating tension of "slow regulatory progress, yet resilient sentiment." Therefore, the observation points for the coming months become clear: first, how the expected adjustments in the interest rate dot plot and new statements regarding inflation and AI capital expenditures in the subsequent meetings of the Fed will recalibrate the expectations gap between Goldman Sachs, Macquarie, and BlackRock; second, whether the U.S. Congress will attempt new crypto legislation after the failure of Clarity to supplement the legal puzzle for current compliant licenses and product tiers; third, how licensed institutions will reshape their product lines and risk exposures in the combined environment of "high rates + regulatory vacuum"—whether they will conservatively shrink their balance sheets to defend existing compliant assets or proactively exploit license premiums to expand new businesses—these choices will determine the next stage of capital flows and boundaries for the crypto industry.

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