CoinW Research Institute
On September 16, Suiryu Technology closed at 477.00 yuan, up 7.20%, reaching a high of 479.87 yuan during the day, and closing above the first-day high of 475 yuan. The trading volume that day decreased to 1.954 billion yuan, with a turnover rate dropping to 23.85%, and a total market capitalization of approximately 205.278 billion yuan. Compared to the issue price of 142.18 yuan, the stock price has reached about 3.35 times the issue price after three trading days. This performance basically verifies our judgment on Suiryu's high price elasticity before its listing. Previously, we had designated a price range of about three times the issue price as an observation zone under a high heat scenario; the actual opening price of 410 yuan on the first day was about 2.88 times the issue price, not yet entering this range; however, after three trading days, the stock price has risen to 3.35 times the issue price. This indicates that the market did not complete the high valuation pricing all at once on the first day but gradually entered the previously envisioned high heat range over the subsequent two trading days after the first day's peak and retreat. The real change occurred in high-level acceptance. Before the listing, we believed that whether high valuations could continue to attract funding still needed observation; now, from 397 yuan to 424.26 yuan, and then to 477 yuan, the acceptance above 400 yuan has shown stronger price tolerance than on the first day. However, this change still mainly occurs at the trading level; the company's orders, product deliveries, and profitability have not shown equivalent new changes. Therefore, we maintain our previous judgment on high price elasticity while raising the assessment of short-term high-level acceptance; the long-term fundamental judgment remains unchanged.
1. From 397 yuan to 477 yuan, high-level acceptance is stronger than expected
Before the listing, we mainly focused on three questions, including whether the limited circulating shares could amplify first-day price elasticity, whether funds would continue to support after high prices, and whether Suiryu's listing could drive a repricing of the domestic AI computing power sector. Now, the first two questions have clearer answers. The issuance price of Suiryu was 142.18 yuan, opening at 410 yuan on the first day, reaching a peak of 475 yuan, and finally closing at 397 yuan. At the beginning of the listing, the freely tradeable shares accounted for only about 4.16% of the total share capital, and the overwhelming subscription enthusiasm of more than 6000 times, coupled with limited circulating chips, quickly amplified the first day's price elasticity, which is basically consistent with our previous judgment.
What exceeded expectations was the subsequent support. The first-day peak and retreat indicated that there was still a significant divergence in high-level funds, but on the second trading day, Suiryu closed at 424.26 yuan, re-stabilizing above the first day's average transaction price of about 415 yuan; on September 16, it further rose to 477 yuan, not only breaking the first day's high but also closing near the day's highest price. Meanwhile, the trading volume decreased from 2.899 billion yuan on the second trading day to 1.954 billion yuan, and the turnover rate dropped from 76.02% on the first day to 39.49%, then further to 23.85%. The price center continued to rise, while the turnover rate gradually declined, indicating that after a large turnover on the first day, there was not an immediate and continuous concentrated sell-off at high levels. Therefore, whether “high valuations can attract secondary market support” can be preliminarily validated as having received some affirmation.
2. Market risk appetite is recovering, but Suiryu's upward elasticity is greater
Placing Suiryu back into the recent market environment, high-level acceptance needs to be viewed in two stages. In the early stages of listing, the external environment was not friendly towards high-valued technology stocks. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries briefly surpassed 5%, and market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September quickly heated up, putting valuation pressure on globally high-valued growth assets. The A-share technology sector had also been adjusting prior, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index dropping more than 3% on the day of Suiryu's listing, September 11; on September 14, when Suiryu rose by 6.87%, Mocha Thread and Mu Xi were still down around 3.1% and 5.7%, respectively. The performance of Suiryu in the first two trading days reflected more of the price discovery and capital support of the new stock itself, rather than simply following the rise of the domestic GPU sector.
By September 16, the market environment underwent noticeable changes. The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 rebounded strongly that day, and the risk appetite in sectors like semiconductors, HBM, and CPO clearly improved, allowing Suiryu's rise to benefit from sector sentiment. Therefore, the 7.20% increase on the third trading day cannot be entirely attributed to an independent market. However, compared to companies in the same field, Suiryu still exhibited greater upward elasticity. Behind this, in addition to the warming of market risk appetite, is also related to the fact that it has just been listed for three trading days with an initial circulation ratio of only 4.16%. When funds again flow into technology growth sectors, a smaller circulation is more likely to amplify price fluctuations. This also makes Suiryu's current pricing logic clearer. The first two trading days proved there was a certain degree of independent support at high levels, and the third trading day further showed that when market risk appetite improves, the attributes of new stocks and a low circulation ratio can amplify upward price elasticity. However, this chip advantage will not exist long-term; as trading becomes gradually saturated, the market will eventually shift from pricing based on “new stocks + scarcity” to order and performance validation.
New variables have also arisen on the industrial side. Recently, the global tight supply of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is beginning to transmit to China's AI chip industry, and some domestic AI chip manufacturers have already raised product prices. The tight HBM supply reflects both the demand for AI computing power and the scarcity of key components, but it may also increase cost pressures for chip manufacturers. Therefore, this change is not simply a positive or negative for Suiryu. Strong domestic computing demand does not equate to proportional order growth translating into profits. For Suiryu, which has already reached a market capitalization of over 200 billion yuan, this has begun to become more important than simple industry enthusiasm.
3. After 205.3 billion yuan, the market needs new fundamental evidence
As of the closing price on September 16, Suiryu's total market capitalization has reached approximately 205.278 billion yuan, expanding more than three times from around 61.187 billion yuan at issuance. However, over the past three trading days, the company has not simultaneously seen new orders, large-scale product deliveries, or profit changes sufficient to cause an equivalent degree of change in business fundamentals. The core logic behind the current high valuation still relies on Tencent and domestic AI computing power. In 2025, direct sales to Tencent and sales related to the AVAP model account for 83.79% of Suiryu's total annual revenue. Tencent not only proves that Suiryu's products can enter the real AI scenarios of large internet companies, but also provides strong visibility for future order growth; however, a high customer concentration means that Tencent's purchasing rhythm has a substantial impact on the company's performance.
Additionally, in the first half of 2026, Suiryu achieved revenues of 1.12 billion yuan, surpassing the 990 million yuan for the entire year of 2025, but still recorded a net loss of approximately 630 million yuan during the same period. The company anticipates that revenue for the first three quarters of 2026 will reach 2.3 billion to 3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 325.78% to 455.36%, with expected net losses still ranging from 700 million to 860 million yuan. Therefore, the pricing logic for Suiryu post-listing is entering a new stage. In the initial trading days, the market could trade on the basis of 6000 times subscription, a 4.16% initial circulation, Tencent’s endorsement, and the scarcity of domestic GPUs; once the market capitalization reaches over 200 billion yuan, the ability of these publicly available pieces of information to continue driving valuation will gradually decrease. The first three days of trading answered how much premium the market is willing to pay for Suiryu; the next question to answer is whether the company can gradually justify this premium.
4. The next focus should be whether growth can start to translate into profit improvement
If we could only choose one core variable, we believe it is no longer how much the stock price can increase, but whether the rapid revenue growth can start to translate into profit improvement. The revenue forecast of 2.3 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first three quarters implies that high growth has already become part of market expectations. What can truly provide new information is whether, after rapid revenue expansion, gross margins can improve, losses can narrow, and operating cash flow can also turn positive. Especially against the backdrop of rising costs for key components like HBM, whether there can be a healthier transmission between revenue and profit will be more important than merely revenue growth rates.
If future revenues continue to meet company guidance, while improving gross margins, narrowing losses, and enhancing cash flow, then the current valuation will receive more operational data support; if revenues grow rapidly but profitability quality fails to improve, what the market needs to reassess will no longer be “does Suiryu have growth,” but rather “what kind of valuation can such growth support.” Orders from Tencent and L600 are important verifying variables underlying this main line. Tencent decides whether the current high-speed growth can be sustained, while L600 and new clients determine whether Suiryu can further expand its training market and reduce dependency on a single client. Ultimately, these developments still need to be reflected in financial data to truly change long-term pricing logic.
5. Price judgments have been corrected, long-term judgments await performance verification
The three trading days can validate market sentiment, chip exchange, and investors' acceptance of price, yet they are not enough to validate the long-term value of an AI chip company. Especially in the context of the company still being in a loss stage while having a total market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan, the higher the market expectations, the more subsequent operating data needs to be fulfilled. Therefore, we still list Suiryu Technology as a core focus target, but the focus has changed. The performance of the first three trading days mainly verified previous judgments about high price elasticity and provided a more positive high-level acceptance signal than on the first day. Moving forward, the market needs to answer not whether Suiryu can enter the high valuation range, but whether the valuation above 200 billion yuan can gradually receive operational data support. The next more important verification point will be the company’s subsequent financial reports; if there are significant changes in Tencent orders, large-scale deliveries of L600, bulk purchases from new clients, or obvious changes in supply chain costs, they also need to be reassessed in advance. From an opening price of 2.88 times the issue price to a rise to 3.35 times the issue price on the third trading day, Suiryu is gradually fulfilling the market's expectations for high price elasticity before its listing. However, entering the previously envisioned high heat range does not mean that the fundamentals have undergone a commensurate revaluation. After momentarily stabilizing above 400 yuan, the next stage that truly needs verification has shifted from “how much premium the market is willing to give” to “can performance support this premium.”
This article is for market research and information analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
