The drop last week was limited, and the next target could be $71,000.

Written by: Glassnode

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin has slipped out of the recent range, falling below the real market average price again, but during a week of failed Senate voting and sharp declines in altcoins, the drop remains relatively restrained. New demand is absent: on-chain capital inflows, ETF capital flows, stablecoin growth, and corporate purchases have all stagnated.

Executive Summary

• Bitcoin has fallen out of the range and below the real market average price of $76,700, but the decline was shallow during a week with poor news.
• The Fed's decision today is priced in for an interest rate hike; core inflation is at 2.4%, and the policy rate remains at 3.75%, indicating that policy has tightened without any action taken.
• New demand has quieted: after 27 consecutive days of on-chain capital inflows, ETFs have turned net outflows, stablecoin supply is flat, and corporate treasuries have stopped buying.
• After the Senate vote, altcoin losses were greater than Bitcoin's, but most have not yet reached new lows.
• Within hours of voting, options shifted to favor downside; the maximum pain point sits at $72,000, while the call option wall at $85,000 limits upside.
• Most buy orders are concentrated within 10% of the current price, with thinner orders below; if the range breaks, the next target is $71,300, with support at $62,000 to $65,000 below that.

Below the range, but still holding

Below the real market average price again

As of the latest settlement point, Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, down approximately 4.6% for the week. The price has fallen just below the lower boundary of the range since late August and is about 1% lower than the real market average price of $76,700. This average price represents the average cost of active investors. The low point of the range nearly overlaps with this average price, serving dual roles. The price broke below this level during the hour of the Senate vote and has remained below it since.

In terms of news impact, the decline is not significant. On September 15, 2026, the Senate failed to pass the "CLARITY Act," a bill concerning the structure of the cryptocurrency market. The bond market had already priced in today's interest rate hike. Altcoins dropped more than Bitcoin. Such a small break has been recovered before: on August 23 and September 10, 2026, the same level was pierced and held. It was the first close below this line on September 15; should another bearish candle appear, the drop would become a confirmed breakdown. The next cost line below is the short-term holder cost basis of $71,300, which is the average cost of chips purchased over the past five months.

Policy is tightening

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision later on September 16, 2026, with market expectations pointing to an interest rate hike. Even if there is no change, policy has already tightened on its own. Core inflation in the US has dropped to 2.4%, the lowest since 2021, while the federal funds rate has been stuck at 3.75% since December 2025. The difference between the two, representing the real policy rate, has widened to 1.35 percentage points, indicating that the policy itself has not been adjusted. Note: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, 2026, bringing the target federal funds rate range to 3.75%-4.00%, consistent with market pricing; the dot plot suggests there may be one more hike this year.

The bond market wants more. The two-year US Treasury yield is almost one full percentage point higher than the Fed rate, which is how the bond market has priced in the interest rate hike ahead of time. Regardless of the outcome, the macroeconomic environment that Bitcoin faces is tighter than it was two weeks ago at the range's peak. The rate hike merely confirms what the two-year rate has already priced; if they hold steady, the drop in inflation will continue to push up real rates.

Buyers have quieted down

Capital inflows have stalled

Previously, the price was propelled into the range by new on-chain funds. The realized market capitalization (the total value of each coin based on its most recent trading price) had risen for 27 consecutive days until September 14, 2026. This trend has ended: September 15 marked the first net outflow in 28 days, with preliminary data for September 16 also negative.

Exchange flows have not reversed. The net position changes on exchanges (the 30-day change in exchange-held coins) remain net outflows, and exchange balances are lower than a month ago. Coins are still leaving exchanges, but the funds that were buying them have paused. The story for US spot ETFs is the same: there was a negative net inflow the week before the vote, with outflows of about $334 million from September 8 to 14, while nearly $1 billion flowed in a few days earlier at the beginning of the month. This feels more like the market is waiting. If realized market capitalization turns back to daily net increases, it means buyers are back; if prices remain below the average and outflows continue, it indicates that the buyers in the range are starting to give up.

No new cash on the sidelines

Stablecoins are the ammunition for the next round of increases, and this pool has not been growing. The market capitalization of stablecoins is about $301 billion, flat for the week, down approximately 4% from the peak in April 2026. Its 30-day growth rate is slightly below the 1.5% to 2.9% range indicated on the chart. When the growth rate falls within this range, Bitcoin tends to perform the strongest on average in the following month; during periods of rapid growth, losses often follow.

The growth rate has recovered from negative values over the summer; cash on the sidelines is no longer shrinking, but it is not accumulating either. A breakthrough requires new dollars, and the supply has not hit new highs in five months. This growth rate band is worth watching: a return to the range will be the first signal that fuel is re-emerging.

Corporate treasuries have stopped buying

Public company treasuries were major buyers in 2025 but have now exited. Over the past three months, they've net purchased about 5,900 Bitcoins, while just in July 2025, they bought 89,000 Bitcoins. Their average cost, or the corporate treasury cost basis, is approximately $80,500, about 6% higher than the current price, leading to an overall book loss.

After breaking below this line in January 2026, the price retested twice: once in May and once on September 3, 2026, both times turning downward. A buyer that has stopped purchasing and holds unrealized losses does not provide support. If it regains $80,500, it could put the treasury back into profit and eliminate some excess supply above; until then, this cost line serves merely as another ceiling.

Altcoins dive first

Altcoins reacted more heavily to the vote than Bitcoin. Based on the last closing before the vote, the median drop among the top 100 cryptocurrencies was approximately two percentage points greater than Bitcoin's. The proportion of assets above the 20-day moving average fell from 56% to 19% in a single day.

The longer trend is only bending, not breaking. Most of the top 100 still sit above the 50-day moving average, with practically nobody touching the 30-day lows. During the peak in May 2026, the percentage above the 50-day moving average halved in one week; this week, it only saw a slight drop. Altcoins have already dipped, but a new round of declines has not yet started. Confirmation of a turn would require a similar drop in the percentage above the 50-day moving average as seen in May.

Options are bearish and sealing up

Starting to bet on downside after the vote

Before the vote, options traders were paying premiums for upside. The week-long 25-Delta skew measures the price difference between equally distanced puts and calls. One hour before the Senate vote, this indicator was well below zero: calls (profiting from a rise) were more expensive than puts (profiting from a drop). Within hours of the results being announced, the indicator crossed zero and continued to rise.

Implied volatility for the week spiked during the hour of the vote and then immediately fell back. The market did not sell back this level of downside protection. Watch the zero axis: if the skew returns to below zero in the week before the Fed decision, it means the market is starting to repurchase upside.

The downside forms the maximum pain point while the upside has a call wall

The existing options structure forms a ceiling. The contracts expiring on September 25, 2026, are the largest expiration this season. The maximum pain point (the price at which the most options expire worthless) sits at $72,000 and has not moved up with the current price. The maximum pain point indicates where the weight of expiring contracts lies, below the market. The largest single tier on both the long and short sides is at the $70,000 strike price.

Above the current price, there is a stack of call options. The highest call tier above the current price is at $85,000, followed by $90,000. These strike prices fall within or slightly above the $83,000 to $86,000 ceiling drawn based on long-term holder supply in last week’s report. The options market and spot market have a consistent view on the upper limit for upside.

Where will the pullback go

Support is nearby, thinner below

The order book shows how far the pullback could go if the range breaks. Buy orders have tightened towards the current price. Among the buy orders within 20% of the current price, nearly two-thirds fall within the 1% to 10% range below, while this ratio was only about half at the beginning of the year. In the area 10% to 20% below the current price, the buy wall that persisted throughout 2025 has thinned out to well below normal thickness.

In terms of price, nearby buy orders extend to about $68,000; going further down to around $61,000, the order book becomes thin. This thin area is a vacuum zone. The short-term holder cost basis of $71,300 falls within the nearby buy block; if a pullback stops here, it will simply test the nearby buy orders. If the range breaks and these buy orders get eaten up, the next floor is on-chain at $62,000 to $65,000, which represents the heaviest supply position below the market.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin range has given way at the lower boundary, but the breakdown has not yet been confirmed: following a shallow decline after a week of poor news, the price is approximately 1% below the real market average price of $76,700. Resilience is an argument for the bulls; the bearish argument is that there is nothing providing it with lifeblood. On-chain and ETF inflows have stalled, stablecoin supply is flat, corporate treasury holdings are at a loss and have stopped purchasing, altcoins have dived, and options are betting on downside below the call wall. If there are two consecutive trading days closing back above $76,700 and realized market capitalization begins to grow again, the range could be restored. If another bearish candle appears below this line, the breakdown will be confirmed; thereafter, the depth of the pullback will be determined by nearby buy orders, the $71,300 level, and the floor at $62,000 to $65,000.

Note: Price, options, and order book data are as of the most recent settlement point on September 16, 2026; daily on-chain data is as of September 15; ETF, stablecoin, and treasury data is as of September 14; options strike price order book is a snapshot from the morning of September 16; recent daily data may still be revised.