In the past 7 effective trading days, the bitcoin:native spot ETF has accumulated a net reduction of 12,883.79 BTC, and the recent capital support continues to weaken. On the 16th, there was again a net reduction of 4,252.09 BTC, totaling a reduction of 9,604.63 BTC compared to the previous day, and the replenishment on the 14th has been completely offset.

In the past seven trading days, there have been net reductions on five days, indicating that the current new configuration lacks sustainability, and the occasional replenishments are not enough to offset the subsequent reductions.

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on the 16th, and the latest forecast also raised the median interest rate for this year and next, limiting the space for improving risk preferences relying on expectations of easing in the short term.

The continuous contraction of ETF holdings is consistent with the cautious state of configuration in such an environment, but daily data is insufficient to confirm the reasons for each reduction. The key moving forward is whether the reductions can narrow first and then restore several consecutive days of net increases. If there are still only sporadic replenishments, the ETF's support for BTC in spot trading will be difficult to improve significantly.

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