BTC Reclaims $77,000, ETF Funds Show Divergence
On September 18, the cryptocurrency market rebounded overall, with BTC once again surpassing $77,000, experiencing an intraday increase of over 1%.
However, if only the price is considered, a more noteworthy change may be overlooked:
The flow of ETF funds for different crypto assets is showing significant divergence.
According to SoSoValue data, the US spot BTC ETF experienced a net inflow of about $159 million on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about $39 million, marking the third consecutive trading day of outflows.
The XRP ETF also recorded a net outflow of about $5 million.
This means that while BTC is rising, institutional funds are not fully returning to the entire crypto market.
ETH Price Rises, But Continuous ETF Outflow What Does It Indicate?
Here is a detail that is easily overlooked.
Although the ETH ETF has experienced outflows for three consecutive days, the ETH price has still increased by about 2% during the same period, reaching around $2,470.
This indicates:
ETF outflows do not equate to an immediate decline in asset prices.
Short-term prices will continue to be influenced by spot trades, derivatives, leveraged funds, and overall risk appetite.
Therefore, directly interpreting "ETH ETF outflows" as institutions being overwhelmingly bearish on ETH might be an overinterpretation.
However, the continuous outflow over three days is indeed worth noting.
Because ETFs are one of the important channels for traditional funds entering the crypto market. Ongoing outflows at least indicate that the current marginal demand for ETH ETFs is not as strong as that for BTC.
More importantly, this divergence has lasted for several days rather than a single-day fluctuation.
📌 If you want to continuously track the impact of BTC, ETH, and macro data on the market, you can follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring," which explains the important market changes and the underlying logic every day.
Why Does BTC Perform Stronger in Terms of Funds?
This may be related to the current macro environment.
The day before, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in more than three years.
But an interesting change occurred in the market afterward:
The US stock market, bonds, and the crypto market rebounded in unison.
According to CoinDesk, the S&P 500 rose about 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 increased nearly 2%; meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond ended a consecutive rise of 8 trading days, and oil prices also slightly retreated.
Simply put:
Although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, market concerns about inflation and long-term rates have temporarily eased.
The retreat in oil prices has reduced some inflationary pressure, and the decline in 10-year Treasury yields also provides certain support for risk assets.
Therefore, this round of BTC rebound cannot be simply attributed to "the market digesting the Fed's rate hike bad news."
More accurately, it is that the rate hike has already been digested by the market, while other macro variables have not continued to deteriorate temporarily.
Funds Have Not Left Crypto, but Are Choosing Again
Aside from BTC, there is another noteworthy fund flow:
The only US spot Zcash ETF attracted nearly $47 million in funds that day, marking one of the fund's strongest performances in a single day, with cumulative inflows exceeding $230 million this month.
At the same time, ZEC rose about 10% that day, becoming one of the strongest performers among major crypto assets.
This indicates that the current market is not simply "institutions buying crypto" or "institutions selling crypto."
It is more like:
Funds are reselecting between different crypto assets.
BTC ETFs are receiving inflows, while ETH and XRP ETFs are seeing outflows, and the Zcash ETF is attracting funds.
This phenomenon reflects that changes in market risk appetite and fund allocation are occurring.
📌 If you want to continuously track the impact of BTC, ETH, and macro data on the market, you can follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring," which explains the important market changes and the underlying logic every day.
What Actually Deserves Attention Next?
For ordinary investors, there is no need to rush to judge market direction from a day's ETF data.
What is more worthwhile to observe are three variables.
First, can the influx of BTC ETF funds continue?
A single day's inflow of $159 million does not indicate that institutions have already begun large-scale positions; data over several days is more valuable for reference.
Second, will the continuous outflow of ETH ETFs continue?
If the price of ETH continues to rise while ETF funds keep flowing out, this indicates a more significant divergence between price and institutional funds.
Third, can the macro environment continue to improve?
Attention should remain on the US 10-year Treasury yield, oil prices, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate path.
Because the linkage between the crypto market and US stocks and bonds is still very evident right now.
📌 Web3 Mr. X: BTC Rises, But Funds Within Crypto Are Diverging
What is most noteworthy about this market cycle is actually not just BTC surpassing $77,000 itself.
But:
While BTC is rising, funds within crypto are showing signs of divergence.
This means the market is currently not simply a return to overall risk appetite, but that funds are re-seeking opportunities among different assets.
Therefore, moving forward, it is more worthwhile to observe:
Where ETF funds are really flowing to, and whether this differentiation in funds can continue.
—— I am Mr. X of Web3, with six years of growth in Web3, focusing on Bitcoin, the crypto market, macroeconomics, and industry trends. If you want to continuously track the impact of BTC, ETH, HYPE, and macro data on the market, you can follow the public account "Bitcoin Spring." Understand the hot topics, gain insights into the logic, and build your own judgment instead of just watching price fluctuations.
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