Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.64 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5%, or $1.54 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $304.3 billion, decreasing by 0.25% over the past 7 days, with USDT holding 60.22% of this market.
Among the top 200 projects listed on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a small number have fallen, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 0.12%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 0.58%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 3.41%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 9.67%, and ARB with a 7-day increase of 41.89%.
Market Forecast (September 21 - September 27):
The RSI index is 56.27 (neutral), the Fear & Greed Index is 57 (neutral), and the Altseason Index is 52 (neutral).
Prediction for the cryptocurrency market: Next week is likely to still be a “digestion of interest rate hikes + options expiration disturbance” week, making it difficult for a significant one-sided trend to occur.
BTC: $74,500 - $79,500 (stabilizing above $78,500 may lead to an upward trend)
ETH: $2,320 - $2,580 (following the overall market trend)
SOL: $93 - $110 (more elastic than BTC)
HYPE: $78-$94 (relatively weak recently)
Risk Warning:
September 25 quarterly options expiration disturbance
Approximately $16.6 billion in nominal options will expire, market makers may “pin” the spot price near Max Pain before expiration, and position releases after expiration may also lead to sharp rises or drops. Volatility usually spikes significantly before and after Friday.
Aftershocks of interest rate hikes + ongoing outflows of spot ETFs
The interest rate hike has been implemented, but the dot plot still points to a possible hike later this year, compounded by recent net outflows from BTC ETFs, leading to weak institutional buying. If the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthen again, risk assets may easily fall back.
High Beta Altcoins (especially HYPE, SOL) liquidity and supply risks
HYPE has recently outperformed, nearing previous highs, making it more sensitive to profit-taking and potential unlocking/selling pressure; SOL shows greater elasticity to changes in risk appetite. Sudden regulatory news, geopolitical events, or major currencies falling below critical support can significantly amplify altcoin declines.
Understanding the Now
US Senate Rejects CLARITY Act, Market Suffers Heavy Losses
On September 15, the US Senate held a procedural vote on the “Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act), resulting in 49 votes in favor and 50 votes against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold required to advance the bill. This act aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto market and clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. After the failed vote, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $75,000, Ethereum fell deeper, and crypto stocks like Coinbase and Circle plummeted by about 10%.
SEC Quickly Launches 'Innovation Exemption', Clearing the Way for On-Chain Stock Trading
Just two days after the CLARITY Act was stalled, on September 17, the SEC officially released the “Innovation Exemption” order, allowing compliant trading of tokenized US stocks on-chain for a five-year period. This exemption permits qualified “Tokenized Security Trading Venues” (TSV) to trade tokenized NMS stocks in licensed AMMs and sets conditions like issuer veto rights. Related concepts such as UNI and Securitize surged immediately.
Crypto Market Plummets Across the Board, Over 115,000 Liquidated
Due to the dual blows of the CLARITY Act vote failure and surging US Treasury yields (with 10-year yields briefly surpassing 5%), the crypto market experienced a massive sell-off in the early hours of September 16. Bitcoin saw a single-day drop of up to 5.3%, Ethereum fell over 8%, and XRP dropped over 10%. According to CoinGlass data, a total of 115,716 people were liquidated within 24 hours globally.
Circle Launches Arc Mainnet, USDC as Native Gas Token
On September 16, Circle officially launched its institutional-level Layer 1 blockchain Arc Mainnet. This network uses USDC as its native gas token, aimed at providing predictable USD-denominated transaction costs for enterprises. Eleven institutions including BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, and Mastercard serve as founding validators. However, about 82% of trading volume on the first day stemmed from speculative activities related to the Meme coin Launchpad, raising discussions about the credibility of “institutional adoption.”
XRP Ledger Bulk Transaction Upgrade Approaching Activation Threshold
The XRP Ledger's bulk transaction upgrade is approaching its activation threshold this week. This upgrade allows complex payments to be atomically executed, meaning multiple transactions either succeed or fail together, providing a new technical foundation for complex financial operations on the XRP Ledger.
Nostra Suffers Oracle Attack, Losses Approx. $3.5 Million
On September 18, Starknet ecosystem project Nostra faced a price attack from the NSTR oracle. The attacker borrowed approximately $3.5 million worth of ETH, STRK, USDC, WBTC, and other assets using manipulated prices as collateral, subsequently transferring some funds cross-chain to Ethereum. Nostra's currency market has currently suspended lending, withdrawals, and liquidation operations.
ECB President Reportedly Personally Blocks Binance's Entry into European Market
According to the Wall Street Journal, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde personally intervened to block Binance's entry into the European market. Greek regulators originally planned to approve Binance’s license application, but the application was halted after Lagarde's intervention. This news highlights the European regulators' caution towards large cryptocurrency exchanges.
Coinbase Teams Up with Moov to Introduce Stablecoin Payments to Over 1,000 Community Banks
On September 14, Coinbase announced a partnership with payment infrastructure company Moov to integrate stablecoin acceptance, settlement, and real-time fund transfer functions into Moov's existing payment platform, covering over 1,000 community banks and credit unions. This move aims to enable local financial institutions to offer stablecoin services without building their own crypto technology stack.
Canada Clarifies: Tokenized Bank Deposits Legally Equivalent to Traditional Deposits
This week, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) in Canada clarified that tokenized bank deposits are legally equivalent to traditional bank deposits. OSFI emphasized the focus on what the product is, rather than how it is constructed or delivered, and that federally regulated banks can develop blockchain products under the existing banking framework without waiting for a specific cryptocurrency rules manual.
Lazarus Group Sells ETH Again, Selling $2.28 Million in 2 Hours
According to Lookonchain monitoring, on September 14, the Lazarus Group, widely believed to be a North Korean hacking organization, sold 911 ETH at an average price of $2,499, worth approximately $2.28 million, within 2 hours. This trend continues to raise market concerns about the flow of stolen funds.
Macroeconomics
On September 16, the voting on the CLARITY Act in the Senate is now complete, ending with a result of 49:50 (minimum 60 votes needed to pass), and did not pass.
On September 16 at 22:30, the United States will announce the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 11 -64 (thousand barrels), with an expectation of -162, and a prior value of -39.1.
On September 17 at 02:00, the United States will announce the Federal Reserve interest rate decision (ceiling) at 4%, with an expectation of 4% and a prior value of 3.75%.
On September 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 12 was 196,000, with expectations of 208,000 and a prior value of 206,000.
On September 18, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 44.9%, with a 55.1% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
Anticipating the Future
Industry Conferences
The Shanghai Blockchain International Week will be held in September 2026, with the "12th Global Blockchain Summit" hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Laboratory kicking off on September 23 at the grand banquet hall on the first floor of the Hyatt on the Bund in Shanghai as the core event of the international week.
The "AI Builders Day," initiated by 6Block and co-hosted by Techub News, will take place on September 21, 2026, from 13:30 to 17:00 Beijing time, in the multifunctional hall on the 15th floor of the Guotou Building in Shanghai, focusing on AI infrastructure, computing power, applications, and practices. Ecological cooperation projects include Gonka, GonkaRouter, Craftale, etc.
KBW2026 will take place from September 29 to October 1 in Seoul, South Korea.
TOKEN2049 Singapore 2026 will be held from October 7 to 8, 2026, in Singapore.
Important Events
On September 23 at 22:30, the United States will announce EIA crude oil inventories (thousand barrels) for the week ending September 18.
On September 24 at 20:30, the United States will announce initial jobless claims (in ten thousand) for the week ending September 19.
The Thailand SEC is publicly soliciting opinions on stablecoin regulation principles, with a deadline around September 25. This regulation aims to restrict stablecoin deposits and withdrawals to other wallets, with a single-day unilateral limit of about $150,000.
Project Progress
The European Central Bank's Pontes distributed ledger project is set to launch on September 21.
Phantom will end support for Sui on September 24.
Binance will delist Pax Dollar (USDP) on September 24 at 11:00.
Token Unlocking
Bedrock (BR) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on September 20, worth approximately $21.08 million, accounting for 18.68% of circulating supply.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.71 million tokens on September 20, worth approximately $26.48 million, accounting for 4.22% of circulating supply.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.66 million tokens on September 20, worth approximately $5.21 million, accounting for 3.83% of circulating supply.
River (RIVER) will unlock 19.11 million tokens on September 22, worth approximately $23.70 million, accounting for 37.58% of circulating supply.
SOON (SOON) will unlock 20.33 million tokens on September 23, worth approximately $3.66 million, accounting for 3.62% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-Depth Research Reports”; using the exclusive column “Hotcoin Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we pinpoint potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also interpret hotspots and predict trends through live streams directly with you. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and grasp value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and investing carries risks. We strongly advise investors to make investments based on a thorough understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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