The interest rate hikes in the United States and Japan have both ended, which has resolved a significant uncertainty in recent times. The stock markets in the U.S. and Bitcoin both rose during the interest rate hikes. On the surface, it seems that the market has absorbed this shock, but a large part of the increase may come from the brief decline in the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield. Additionally, after the interest rate hike in Japan, the yen has actually depreciated, and it has not triggered the concerns about arbitrage capital rapidly withdrawing.

However, by today, the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has started to rebound, returning close to the 5% level. This indicates that although the nervousness caused by the central bank meeting has eased, the cost of capital in the market has not significantly decreased. This means that investors can achieve a 5% return just by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, which will inevitably pose some challenges to the risk market.

Furthermore, oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, and the issues in the Strait of Hormuz have not been resolved. Interest rate hikes can suppress demand but cannot increase oil supply, nor can they restore normal passage in the Strait of Hormuz. If high oil prices continue to push up inflation expectations, long-term bond yields and subsequent interest rate hike expectations may rise again. This remains a pressing issue that cannot be overlooked.

Today, Bitcoin performed very well, briefly surpassing $81,000, while the performance of U.S. stocks during the same period can only be described as average, especially after the ten-year Treasury bond broke above 5%, at which point the stock markets experienced a decline. However, Bitcoin remains very stable. Even though I placed a low buy order at $75,000, which should yield interest, I have yet to identify the reason behind this wave of Bitcoin's rise.

@Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, one-stop trading for predictive markets

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