Thebull resonance finally materialized emphasized yesterday, and the crypto market has entered a unilateral upward trend. BTC has become the core driving force of this round of rise, with every pullback during the day being very limited, and bears have almost no comfortable entry window.

However, a big rise does not mean that one can mindlessly chase longs.

Macro-level pressures still exist, the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, and ETF fund flows show significant volatility; at the same time, the uncertainty of regulatory policies has not completely disappeared. However, from the market performance, it appears that the market is gradually digesting the previously accumulated bearish factors, and prices are returning to their own cyclical movements.

After a big bullish candle yesterday, today we need to be cautious abouthigh-level fluctuations and position exchanges. If forced to continue to rise, pay attention to short-term overheating; if a quick stabilization occurs after pulling back to key support, it will instead be conducive to further upward movements.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: High-level fluctuations, short at high, long at low, do not chase prices.

Yesterday BTC became the “leader of the bulls,” with multi-period resonance pushing the price to rise rapidly. After a large day-on-day increase, today it is more difficult to replicate a unilateral rise, and it is likely to enter a high-level consolidation phase.

The daily RSI has recovered to about 63, but has not yet entered the overbought area above 70, indicating that bulls still retain some upward space.

However, signs of momentum divergence have begun to appear between consecutive highs. If prices continue to break new highs while volume and momentum do not increase synchronously, caution is advised for a quick drop after a surge.

Additionally, there is significant short liquidation pressure in the82300—85400 area above. If 82300 is broken with volume, short covering may further become fuel for the rise; conversely, if the breakout occurs without volume, one should be wary of a false breakout.

Therefore, today’s core idea remains:

Look for lows to buy on pullbacks, aim for highs to sell on pressure; genuinely consider following the trend after a breakout above 82300.

Support: 79500-80000
Resistance: 82300, 83000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: High-level fluctuations, pay attention to potential catch-up, short at high, long at low.

ETH's overall performance was weaker than BTC yesterday, but today we need to pay attention topossible catch-up.

Currently, ETH exchange supply continues to decline, with more and more positions entering staking or long-term storage, forming certain support for medium-term supply.

Meanwhile, the short position ratio in the derivatives market is relatively high. If the price suddenly breaks through the 2630—2650 area, it may trigger stop-losses for shorts, forming a rapid upward spike.

In terms of cycles, yesterday's levels below 12 hours have formed bull resonance, while currently the12-hour still retains a certain aggressiveness, so directly shorting with heavy positions risks being caught in a sudden surge.

However, after a large rise, high levels are also not suitable for chasing longs.

Currently, it is more appropriate to:

Wait to buy on pullbacks; quick in and out for short positions; do not resist the trend once a breakout occurs with volume.

Support: 2560-2575, 2545
Resistance: 2630, 2650, 2666, 2700

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