After the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike was implemented, all macroeconomic bearish factors in the market have been fully realized, and uncertainty has completely dissipated. The market had previously digested the panic of interest rate hikes in advance, with BTC quickly rebounding after a low point at around 74900, and the key support at 75000 has consistently held without effective breakdown, establishing a solid bottom support.
The overall market sentiment is currently warming up, with bearish momentum completely exhausted, and a large-scale bullish structure has fully maintained its position. However, the market has not seen a strong one-sided upward trend, and it continues to maintain a high-range oscillating washout pattern. The rebound has repeatedly tested the previous high around 82000 but has not been able to break through effectively, with clear pressure above, leading to a short-term phase of oscillation and repair.
From the overall rhythm of the market, the strength of the current bottom rebound is extremely strong, completely negating the deep decline expectations brought by the interest rate hike, with continuous higher lows and steadily moving upward focus. However, the current rise is substantial, positioned in a relatively high area, and the bullish momentum has slowed down, lacking the strength for a one-sided breakthrough. Therefore, at this stage, it can only be treated as a short-term bullish within a range; it is no longer suitable for heavy bets, as profits are limited and the risk of washout increases. Operations must strictly control positions!
BTC had a small bullish hammer candle on the daily chart yesterday, with prices retreating below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a temporary pause in short-term bullish strength. KDJ has flattened out at a high, RSI has turned downward, and MACD bearish volume continues to shrink, indicating that the daily chart is in a high-level oscillating repair pattern, with a relatively balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
The 4-hour chart shows the rebound facing resistance at the previous high of 82000, forming a small double top retracement structure. KDJ and RSI are both turning downward, while MACD is forming a top divergence trend, and bullish volume continues to shrink, indicating a clear demand for short-term pullback repair.
After the price retreated on the hourly chart, it stabilized above the lower band for trading, with technical indicators gradually easing. Short-term bearish momentum has completely exhausted, and the downside space is limited, likely to initiate a rebound repair trend at any time.
Overall, the structure indicates: the major trend remains bullish, while the smaller scale adjustment is accumulating energy. A quick recovery from the low of 74900, with support at 75000 holding strong means that the bullish structure remains intact. However, as the range has not been effectively broken, the market currently cannot show a one-sided trend, with high-level washouts being the norm.
In the past, the low positions at 75000 and 76000 provided excellent trend opportunities, offering sufficient profit space and high safety. Currently, trying to go long around 80000 is less advantageous due to the higher position and average cost-effectiveness, limiting it to short-term profits within a range, with new upward space opening only after breaking through resistance.
Accurate operation thoughts for the day
BTC
Core support below: 80500—79500 (initial position long)
Deep pullback replenishment position: 78000
Layered resistance above: 81500—83000—84500
ETH
Core support below: 2585—2545 (initial position long)
Layered resistance above: 2645—2720—2820
The way of trading is to follow the trend, and timing is key.
When the trend is good, boldly hold low positional waves; when the market is oscillating at high levels, cautiously reduce positions. Currently, the overall bullish structure has not changed at all, but the market is in a phase of repair and energy accumulation, lacking the strength for a one-sided explosion.
Do not guess the top, do not go against the trend short, do not chase aggressively; rely on key support and short long accordingly. Time the range rhythm accurately, accumulate profits with a small position, and wait for the market to break through the range to gain substantial profits in line with the overall trend! For more real-time market explanations and arrangements, follow the public account: ZhongliangBN
⚠️Friendly reminder: The above is just a personal technical review thought and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, with frequent high-level washouts; strict control of positions and proper stop-loss measures are essential for rational and steady trading.
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