The 47th issue of "Jiangfeng Trading Strategy Diary"

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%—4.00% on September 17. After the rate hike announcement, BTC did not continue to decline but instead rebounded from around $75,000 back above $80,000. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH spot ETF funds have recently shown net inflows again, indicating that after the negative news landed, there is still market support.

So, it cannot be simply understood that a rate hike will certainly lead to a decline; in the short term, it feels more like a corrective rebound after the negative news. However, as BTC has returned above $80,000, it has now entered a previously significant resistance area, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing long positions is not high anymore.

Currently, BTC is around $80,500, with key attention on $81,500—$82,000
$82,500—$83,000

If it rebounds to the $81,500—$82,000 area and faces obvious resistance, consider opening a short position, adding more shorts at $82,600—$83,000, with a stop loss at $83,500, and aim for the downside targets of $80,500—$79,500—$78,000—$77,000—$76,000, along with an effective break below $75,000 continuing downward to $73,500.

However, if BTC truly breaks through and stabilizes above $83,000, the bearish outlook needs to be temporarily set aside, as stabilizing above $83,000 increases the chances of reaching around $90,000.

If ETH encounters resistance around $2,600—$2,640, consider going short, focusing on adding to shorts at $2,680—$2,720, with a stop loss above $2,760, and aiming for downside targets around $2,510—$2,450—$2,350, with a potential effective break to continue down to around $2,233—$2,100.

⚠️: Friends who can't accept wide stop losses should reduce their position size or adjust stop loss points upward after entering a position in the initial area: Move BTC up by 300 points and ETH up by 20 points as stop loss.

⚠️Conservative traders should wait for the additional position to enter, remember to participate with a light position, and decisively exit when hitting stop loss points; do not hold on to losing positions!

Key focus for BTC is the $82,600—$83,000 range, and the key for ETH is the $2,680—$2,700 range; if they stabilize effectively, bearish positions can basically be abandoned!

Do not chase up, look for shorts on rebounds; respect the market if it breaks through key resistance.

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