Podcast: Bankless

Translation: Yuliya, PANews

Editor's note: In the third week of September, cryptocurrency is bullish again. Although the U.S. "Clarity Act" failed to pass, and the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for the first time since 2023, which should normally be considered a "double negative", the prices of crypto assets did not significantly decline; instead, they rose overall.

Host Ryan and David discussed topics including bullish market confirmation signals, Bitcoin price ranges, the performance of privacy coins and mid-market tokens, bond yields and economic interpretations, details of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and Trump's reactions, the immediate launch of innovation exemptions by the SEC after the Clarity Act's failure (allowing tokenized stocks to trade on AMM and DEX), options possibly becoming the next big track in DeFi, Kraken's compliance introducing Hyperliquid, growth in Venice AI token consumption, the launch of Arc Chain, and S&P's acquisition of OpenZeppelin.

Why is the market stronger after a double negative?

Ryan: David, how would you summarize last week?

David: I think last week actually gave us a very strong bullish market confirmation signal. The hallmark of a bull market is that people are particularly sensitive to good news and indifferent to bad news. Rates went up, the bill failed, yet the prices either didn’t fall or rose even higher. Crypto investor Eric Conner also mentioned that it's quite exhilarating to digest both of these bad news on the same day.

Ryan: Indeed, everyone has a sense of this. Who in the crypto space really thought the Clarity Act would pass? The rate hike was something everyone guessed would happen, which is why even the Nasdaq and S&P didn’t drop much. The DeFi Report founder Michael Nadeau provided a price range for judging an early bull market: If Bitcoin can remain steady between $69,900 (the 200-day moving average) and $80,400 (the 50-week moving average), it would still be in a phase where the direction has not yet been clearly chosen. As long as it does not drop below this range, we cannot say that we have turned into a bear market. However, if Bitcoin can break above $80,400 and maintain that position for several weeks, then from a price momentum perspective, it could be further confirmed that an early bull market has emerged.

David: What he means is, as long as it doesn’t break this range, we can confidently go bullish. If it holds, then it indicates that the low from June 30 this year is indeed a significant bottom.

Ryan: I also invited Ben Cowen. After he returns from New Zealand, I would like to ask him this question specifically. Because Bitcoin had previously rebounded near the 200-week moving average, and during bear markets, Bitcoin often shows such rebounds. Sometimes there are even two tests.

If a second test really occurs, Bitcoin might drop again to around $65,000-$66,000. I feel that many participants in Crypto Twitter are not prepared for this scenario right now.

Zcash, NEAR, and the return of the "mid-tier market"

Ryan: This week, blue-chip coins (like Bitcoin, Ethereum) didn’t move much, but some altcoins went crazy. Zcash broke through $1,500 to create a new high; just last week, it was at $1,200.

What’s going on here? Did everyone rush to buy Zcash as a hedge because the bill failed? I think there are two reasons: either it’s purely funds sentiment, where people see it as insurance for Bitcoin's privacy features; or the crypto space thinks the Fed's rate hike is actually a positive thing, and Zcash is seen as a "fast horse" that runs even faster than Bitcoin. This is somewhat unusual, because in previous bull market beginnings, Bitcoin usually rises first, and then the small-cap tokens follow.

Ryan: Not just Zcash; Hyperliquid also hit historical highs. The well-established project Near has also risen to $3. Although it’s still far from its $30 peak in 2021, it has performed strongly recently. Near recently announced its "privacy trading feature (Confidential Intent)" data: it processed over $30 billion in cross-chain transactions, with a TVL of $70 million. NEAR's recent price rise not only benefits from the overall market's focus on the "privacy trading" theme but also results from its core product’s implementation and growth on the actual application layer.

David: The crypto market has demonstrated extreme polarization: on one end, there are stable blue-chip assets, and on the other, there are highly popular Meme Coins. This structure has resulted in severe bleeding and shrinkage in the mid-tier, which is precisely the core area of innovation in the industry, gathering many startups, various protocols, and professionals responsible for product development and business development.

The market is undergoing positive structural repair. Although not all mid-tier projects will revive, those that truly create products, have real user adoption rates, and can survive based on their business models are once again attracting the market's attention.

Privacy protection and perpetual contracts have become central narratives in this market cycle and have completed initial market validation during the bear market. As market sentiment warms, investors are inclined to increase positions in these "winning" projects that have proven their competitiveness.

Will Q4 see the largest rebound in history? Bond market and the Federal Reserve

Ryan: Speaking of doubling down, Tom Lee has a prediction. He said that after the midterm elections, Q4 could be one of the largest rebounds of a lifetime and would continue into next year. The S&P 500 is currently around 7,585; he believes it will easily exceed 8,200 by the end of the year, mainly driven by the seven tech giants and software stocks. As long as AI trading doesn’t die out, the market will emerge from a correction and see a significant rebound by year-end.

David: Listening to him is like getting a psychological massage for my wallet.

Ryan: But the bond market isn’t being kind to him. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has broken 5%, which hasn’t been seen in a long time. The Treasury's Bessenette dumped $6 billion to buy long bonds last week, trying to push the yields down, but it didn’t help at all.

David: Initially, people thought he was the market manipulator, but later realized that in the face of the massive bond market, his money is just a small fry. Unless he expands his funds by 100 times.

Ryan: If he really prints that much money to manipulate the market, the expectation of "dollar depreciation" would push Bitcoin directly to $2 million. But I’m a bit confused now: Is the surging yield on U.S. treasuries because people think the dollar will depreciate (thus buying gold and coins), or is it because the U.S. economy is too hot (like infrastructure and AI data center investments causing borrowing costs to rise)?

David: Yeah, with a hot economy, inflation not coming down, and a heated bond market, I really don’t know how to interpret this.

Ryan: Looking at the Federal Reserve, they raised the target rate to 3.75% to 4%. All twelve committee members voted unanimously. The Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, nominated by Trump, didn’t do what everyone expected and cut rates; he also removed the forward guidance, making the Federal Reserve feel like a decentralized organization where everyone shares the blame.

David: Did Trump actually not insult him online?

Ryan: He didn’t insult him, instead, he defended him, saying that since there were twelve votes, Warsh couldn’t change much. But Trump still believes U.S. rates should drop below 1%.

David: What does this signify? Either they collaborated behind the scenes to put on a show, or the Federal Reserve really is independent and doesn’t listen to the president. If it’s the latter, then it indicates that the rate hike isn’t about printing money and devaluing the currency, but is genuinely combating a heated economy.

Ryan: Warsh indeed stated that inflation is too high and the rate hike is a responsible decision. As for its impact on the crypto space? Previously, rate hikes would siphon money from the market, but now the government owes too much debt, and as interest rates rise, it ultimately has to print money to repay debts, leading to currency devaluation. So no matter what, Bitcoin wins.

The halt of the Clarity Act and SEC's innovation exemption

Ryan: Let’s continue discussing the Clarity Act. Trump originally agreed to amend the ethical clauses, and everyone thought it was secure; the probability of passing on Polymarket doubled, Bitcoin surged to 70,000, Ethereum to 2,500. Resulting from the Senate vote, the Democrats voted against it entirely, missing passage by 11 votes. Why is that?

David: The Democrats believe they can win in the midterms, so why give the Republicans a political achievement? Moreover, the ethical clauses only concern future actions, not the $1.4 billion in crypto assets that the Trump family earned in the past. But to be fair, Trump's wavering stance on this issue was also a major reason for the bill’s failure.

Ryan: However, regulatory officials are still working. Mike Selig from the CFTC stated that America is still the crypto capital. SEC's Paul Atkins also tweeted that they would act even without the bill, and he bolded the phrase "stay tuned." Then this morning, the SEC released the "innovation exemption." In simple terms, it allows those truly 1:1 pegged tokenized stocks to trade legally on DEXs like Uniswap without being considered illegal brokerages.

David: Right, companies like Securitize and Coinbase benefit the most from this. Securitize’s stock price jumped directly by 30% today. This is different from Robinhood or Ondo’s offshore tokenized stocks. This makes it legal for Americans to buy and sell tokenized stocks with voting and dividend rights, provided they perform real-name authentication (KYC).

Ryan: Didn’t you receive a call from the SEC confirming this yesterday?

David: Yes, the SEC held a Q&A session. I asked them what about those offshore tokenized stocks, and they said those are still offshore, and Americans cannot touch them. Now this exemption is intended to allow this to be compliant in the U.S.

Ryan: But there are quite a few rules. Firstly, it has to be on a completely publicly accessible and permissionless blockchain; those centralized chains may not qualify. The most absurd part is the trading volume restriction: the daily trading volume cannot exceed 0.25% of the stock's daily trading volume on traditional markets.

David: That’s too ridiculous! It means that large funds simply cannot enter; they can only play around in a small sandbox. As a retail investor, I don't want to do real-name authentication to play with this watered-down version; I’d rather go to Uniswap to engage with the offshore permissionless version.

Ryan: However, this did address the complaints of AMC's CEO. He scolded last week about Robinhood's AMC token lacking voting rights, saying it was “disgusting.” Now the SEC requires these compliant tokens to have voting rights, and Robinhood's Vlad has also agreed to add real redemption and voting rights for offshore tokens; he should be satisfied now.

Will options be the next hit in DeFi?

Ryan: Perpetual contracts are already very popular in the crypto space, like Hyperliquid and Lighter. But options have not been able to establish themselves, and many projects have died. David, do you think options can work this time?

David: I just spoke with the Derive team working on options. They mentioned that previously it was not feasible because options need many differing views in the market for trading; before, the crypto space only had retail investors and native funds, which was too few. Now there are more people. What's more critical is that the past downturn revealed a significant pitfall with perpetual contracts: even if you correctly predict the direction, a slight fluctuation in between can lead to a liquidation!

Ryan: Options are different. You choose the asset, price, and expiration date, and as long as it hasn’t expired, even if the asset plummets in the meantime, you won’t be liquidated. Plus, even if the platform disconnects or malfunctions, your option contract is still yours.

David: Exactly! It feels like discovering a new continent. Derive is currently the biggest player in the options trading volume, and their token rose by 150% last month. Now Hyperliquid and Lighter want a piece of the action too. With these three competing, “options” will definitely be a huge trend in the upcoming year.

Ryan: Additionally, Kraken plans to bring perpetual contracts back to the U.S. They have created a compliant market requiring real-name authentication, allowing U.S. users to trade perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid through Kraken's frontend. This is a big deal.

AI token surge, Arc Chain's token launch, and traditional giants entering the field

Ryan: Erik Voorhees released a token consumption chart for Venice AI, which doubles every two months. Six months ago, 50 billion tokens were consumed daily, now it’s 250 billion a day. If this growth continues, tokens like VVV and HYPE, which can truly capture value, will definitely break the curse of "tokens being just air, not investable."

David: Right, we need dozens of such genuinely profitable projects that align with investors' interests to rebuild everyone’s confidence in the crypto space.

Ryan: Speaking of development, the chain behind USDC, Arc Chain, has launched, and shockingly, they set up over 100 Memecoin launchpads on the first day; that vibe seems off, right?

David: It is indeed discordant. Arc was originally focused on underlying payment and settlement but now is scurrying to compete with those meme coins? It feels like blindly following trends, trying to hype things up first and then gradually move on to serious payment and tokenized asset infrastructure.

Ryan: Finally, there’s a major bombshell: Traditional financial giant S&P Global has acquired the most prominent smart contract auditing company in the crypto space, OpenZeppelin. Although they didn’t disclose the amount, the news stated that OpenZeppelin protected $37 trillion in asset transfers.

David: If this were back in 2021, I definitely wouldn’t believe it. But now it's September 2026, and seeing this news, I truly feel we have "broken through"!

Ryan: Yeah, although it took longer than expected and the process was painful, we truly made it. As we head into the fourth quarter, the biggest suspense is how blue-chip coins will perform. If the early bull market is confirmed, as long as they maintain the current price range, they will definitely soar!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。