In the week of 2026-09-21, a name already marked by on-chain analytics as "BTC OG insider whale" resurfaced in the spotlight—Garrett Jin. Multiple media outlets and on-chain monitoring data show that this account, long known for large holdings, has just concluded a prolonged misplaced bet: he held a ZEC short position for about three months before recently closing it, ultimately realizing a loss of approximately 36.13 million dollars. This significant stop-loss did not cause him to exit the market completely; on the contrary, monitoring results indicate he is still firmly betting on BTC: the account currently holds about 1,330 BTC long positions, with a nominal value of about 107.7 million dollars, at a floating profit of approximately 3.71 million dollars. This position has thus become one of the most closely watched long positions on-chain. Coincidentally, during the same time window, the weekly closing price of BTC breached the 50-week moving average (50W MA) for the first time in about 45 weeks. Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn publicly pointed out that historically, when BTC reclaims the 50W MA during bear markets, it often occurs near the bottom of the bear market; this statement was quickly amplified by the market and linked to this whale's long position, leading to an intense debate about whether the current cycle's bottom has already appeared, interweaving the threads of "ZEC short position loss, BTC long position holding, and reclaiming 50W MA."
36.13 Million Dollar Stop-Loss: ZEC Short Position Exits Brutally
According to AiCoin's aggregation of various public data, Garrett Jin's related account established a ZEC short position around June 2026, after which it held the position for about three months, choosing to close the entire position in one go around September 21, directly realizing a loss of about 36.13 million dollars. Since this address had previously been tagged as a "BTC OG insider whale" by services like Onchain Lens, the absolute scale of this single loss and the drama of an "old player stepping on a landmine" have been continually amplified and recounted by media and the community. Some reports even further referenced a single monitoring source, claiming his historical cumulative losses have reached about 12.77 million dollars, but this figure itself remains somewhat uncertain.
From on-chain and trading records, what can be seen is merely a result of moving from long-term holding to closing positions centralized at once. This pattern of "holding until the last moment before unifying the stop-loss" may reflect a higher risk tolerance for non-main battlefield assets, or it could simply be a case of a single judgment error; it is currently difficult to draw a conclusion. A more realistic risk is that when the market treats the 36.13 million dollar loss as an emotional symbol and spreads it repeatedly, it easily overlooks the fact that key information such as opening price and specific position size is still missing. Moreover, any single account or single asset's liquidation story is insufficient to serve as a simple projection for the entire cycle's directional guidance; this ZEC short position is more an extreme sample rather than a definitive conclusion about the entire market direction.
1.33k BTC Long Position Holding: Main Battlefield Bet Unchanged
After the ZEC short position incurred a loss of about 36.13 million dollars and was closed, AiCoin data showed that this account tagged as a "BTC OG insider whale" did not fully retreat but instead continued to hold about 1,330–1,333 BTC long positions. At current prices, this position's nominal value is approximately in the range of 107–109 million dollars, with a mainstream estimate around 107.7 million dollars; it was reported that this long position is currently at a floating profit of about 3.71 million dollars, making it the most closely monitored position by the outside world for this account agent.
With the altcoin contracts choosing to stop losses, the BTC long positions remained fully intact, a combination that logically appears as “withdrawing from peripheral battles while continuing to bet on the main battlefield.” Whether this signifies his continued confidence in BTC's medium to long-term trend is hard to conclude based solely on a single position, but it can at least be said that he is willing to let risk primarily concentrate on BTC rather than continue burning chips on marginal assets like ZEC. Especially in the context where BTC reclaimed the 50-week moving average at roughly the same time, interpreted by technicians as potentially nearing the cycle's bottom, this approximately 1.33k BTC long position will naturally be repeatedly interpreted by the market as a bullish signal. However, it should be emphasized that no matter how significant the whale position is, it can only constitute an observational sample and not a guarantee for future market behavior; what truly deserves attention is how this BTC long position will adjust going forward and its relative position to the overall cycle rhythm.
50W MA Reclaimed: Technicians See Cycle Dawn
If the whale position is an emotional sample, then the technicians are focused on that repeatedly mentioned 50-week moving average. According to public data, during the week of 2026-09-21, BTC’s weekly closing price once again stood above the 50W MA after about 45 weeks. Numerous media outlets directly tagged this "reclaim" at the current cycle coordinates as a key technical anchor point for assessing medium to long-term positioning, considering it an extremely rare structural signal over the past year.
Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn subsequently provided a more historical interpretation on social media: in the past few rounds of bear market phases, when BTC can reclaim the 50W MA after deep declines, it is often very close to the bottom region; this is also why this return to the moving average would be rapidly amplified. However, his opinion also contains a premise - it is merely "usually so" based on experience, not a script that guarantees 100% compliance every time. In the current market, bulls are willing to treat it as evidence that the probability of the bottom appearing has significantly increased, while bears insist on classifying it as part of a bear market rebound. In such a divergence, the 50W MA appears more like a mirror reflecting the respective narratives of their cycles, rather than a guaranteed pass for reversal.
On-Chain Labels and 'Insider Whale': Signals and Noise Intertwined
Just as the 50W MA has been endowed with narratives beyond the indicator itself, Garrett Jin's address has also been tagged in the on-chain world with highly imaginative labels. Services like Onchain Lens have classified him as a "BTC OG insider whale" based on his historically visible trading records and holding habits. Many media outlets reused this title when reporting on the substantial loss from the ZEC short position and the steadfast BTC long position. For these tools, labels compress public on-chain behavior: early on in the cycle, having engaged with large amounts, holding positions long-term, and repeatedly operating near key price levels—these characteristics combined easily abstract into a stereotype of “old player, heavy positions, potentially knowing more,” allowing the market to quickly focus on a few "important accounts."
The issue is that this compression inevitably accompanies information loss and even distortion. Firstly, the term "insider whale" itself is controversial; it wraps a statistical classification based on on-chain behavior into an almost melodramatic identity setting, easily magnifying retail reactions to the operations of a single account. Secondly, some data surrounding Garrett Jin—such as reports stating his historical cumulative losses have reached about 12.77 million dollars—are currently mainly sourced from a single monitoring party; discrepancies in statistical measures and model assumptions can yield significant errors, not to mention the risks of mislabeling and exaggeration inherent in the labels themselves. More importantly, even though this address once incurred a single loss of about 36.13 million dollars on a ZEC short position while still holding BTC longs valued at over 100 million dollars, these facts only indicate that he is a participant of significant size with a distinct risk appetite and do not forecast global market behavior as an "oracle"; there is never a necessary causal relationship between the operations of a single marked account and the overall market trends. It is perfectly acceptable to regard it as a clue, but to treat it as a conclusion is to replace independent judgment with one’s imagination of correlation.
Whale Stop-Loss Combined with Technical Reversal: What to Watch Next
The ZEC short position realized a loss of approximately 36.13 million dollars in one go, while data from AiCoin shows that the account still holds a nominal value of about 107.7 million dollars and a floating profit of about 3.71 million dollars in its 1.33k BTC long position. Coupled with BTC reclaiming the 50W MA after about 45 weeks, these three clues have been strung together into a narrative template of “whale acknowledgment of mistake + significant long position unyielding + technical reversal” for the cycle's bottom. What really deserves attention next is whether on-chain and trading records can capture this labeled “BTC OG insider whale” adjusting his BTC positions further—such as whether he starts to gradually reduce his positions, leverage up, or hedge; currently available public data still shows no significant reduction actions. Secondly, whether BTC can maintain its weekly closing above 50W MA in the coming weeks, or if it will instead be just another brief “false breakout” as seen multiple times in the past, which will directly influence whether Alex Thorn’s emphasized analogy of "near the bear market bottom" continues to be referenced by the market. Thirdly, on an emotional level, the current discussion has shifted from intraday fluctuations to “whether this round has already shown the bear market bottom,” and the spread of topics in media and the community over the next few weeks will determine whether this narrative gets reinforced as a mainstream story or is quickly submerged by new price fluctuations. It must be repeatedly emphasized that whether it's the stop-loss and position choices of a single whale or technical indicators like the 50W MA, they are merely a set of reference signals; true investment decisions must be grounded in a broader perspective of data and a clear understanding of one’s own risk tolerance.
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