A brief round of bearish resonance appeared in the weekend market, with the 4-hour, 6-hour, and 8-hour charts continuously weakening. However, after the price tested the 2-hour support, it did not continue to accelerate downward but instead consolidated for a long period of 12 hours.
Subsequently, the night market restarted its counterattack, and as of today’s morning session, it has been recovering for about 16 consecutive hours, with the 4-hour chart producing four consecutive bullish candles, and the 1-hour chart even showing accelerated volume.
This indicates that after the weekend washout, bullish support still exists.
However, the current position cannot be blindly optimistic either. Both BTC and ETH have reached key resistance areas. In this low-volatility consolidation → sudden increase in volume structure, false breakouts are most likely to occur.
Therefore, the most important thing now is not to guess the direction in advance but to wait for a breakout confirmation:
Do not chase long positions near resistance, do not chase short positions near support; follow only after establishing with increased volume, and be cautious if prices rise quickly and retreat.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: The direction has not yet been confirmed; be cautious about chasing long before breaking 82282.
After 16 hours of continuous recovery, short-term bullish momentum in BTC has clearly warmed up, but there are still some divergences in technical indicators.
The MACD bullish momentum has slowed down, but the DIF and DEA are still operating above the zero axis, thus no clear bearish reversal structure has formed for the time being.
Currently, what truly dictates the market is the pressure near the previous high at 82282.
If there is just a spike breakthrough during the session and it quickly falls back below the resistance, then one must be highly alert to false breakouts; only when the volume simultaneously increases and is able to stabilize effectively can there be a chance to test 82918 and even higher areas further.
The futures market is currently not extremely overheated. The funding rate remains moderately positive, with the market overall leaning bullish but not yet insane; meanwhile, large players' positions are obviously leaning towards long, indicating that funds are still betting on a breakout.
However, the decline in total open interest also indicates that the market is actively deleveraging.
Therefore, today is more suitable for:
If 82282 is not broken, do not chase long; wait for strong volume to establish before following the trend.
Support: 81260, 80000
Resistance: 82282, 82918
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
Viewpoint: The larger cycle is bullish, but the smaller cycle has a demand for correction; it is not advisable to continue blindly chasing after breaking 2700.
ETH has clearly performed stronger than BTC today, breaking through 2700 with increased volume in the 1-hour chart, but after the rise, it also started to show a pullback.
The key change is that 2672 has been broken.
If the weekly line can stabilize above 2672 in subsequent sessions, it means further improvements in the medium-term structure, and the upper can continue to observe areas around 2767 and even 2823.
However, short-term signs of correction following overheating have begun to appear.
Although the daily MACD still maintains above the zero axis, the red bars are gradually shrinking, and bullish momentum is beginning to slow down; the 4-hour EMA still maintains a bullish arrangement, but MACD has formed a death cross at a high position, indicating a clear demand for correction in the short cycle.
Thus, ETH can currently be summarized as:
The overall trend remains bullish, but short-term needs to first digest profit-taking after the 2700 breakout.
If the area between 2660 and 2672 can confirm a pullback, the subsequent re-attack structure will be healthier; if it quickly falls back below 2672, one must be wary of this breakout turning into a false breakout.
Support: 2660-2672, 2606-2615
Resistance: 2708, 2767, 2823
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This article was originally published by [Huijing Community] and represents only personal views. Due to the inevitable delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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