Good evening everyone, long time no see. Due to the aicoin updates including the risk control of the public account, it has been a while since the last update, the recent trades have been okay.
This afternoon at four o'clock, buying volume around the price of 81700 for Bitcoin increased, with two one-hour bullish candles reaching a spike of 85300. This position was given by me on September 8. We need to pay attention to two points: first, the United States passed the Bitcoin reserve bill, making the purpose of the cryptocurrency market as a reservoir clear. The second point is that originally on September 25, there were 15 billion dollars in bearish options at 72000, but currently, the maximum pain point for the 9.25 options is 16.8 billion dollars.
This is similar to August 19, when the two main pain points for Bitcoin options were 63000 and 72000, and on August 21, Bitcoin broke through to around 79600. It is evident that options are being squeezed. Referring to these two periods, the highest potential space in the future could expand to around 88000. The expected space above is three thousand points, while below it is seven thousand points.
Within 24 hours, 650 million dollars in short positions were liquidated. The market's movement did not retrace but directly initiated a forceful liquidation, making it easier for a situation of large fluctuations to occur in the future.
There are two possibilities in the short term: the first, options squeezing, whereby Bitcoin moves sideways before testing 88000, and Ethereum correlating at 2850, has a very low probability.
The second, a retracement test, first makes a one-hour pullback to test around 82200, with Ethereum correlating at 2650.
The third possibility is divided into two categories, with two types of differentiation. The first category, after the test, weakly rebounds for fifteen minutes. Strongly, it would rebound for one hour to test the aforementioned upper positions.
The second category, after the test, first undergoes a fifteen-minute fluctuation for digestion, followed by an hour of decline to test 79200, with Ethereum at 2580.
Important reference positions:
Bitcoin 82200, 83700, 86500, 88800
Ethereum 2620, 2680, 2750, 2880
Today there were two consecutive small losses on trades. My current thoughts are to hold short positions for risk-reward ratio, adding at Bitcoin 85800 and cutting at 86500, adding at Ethereum 2750 and cutting at 2780. For reference only.
As for long-term possibilities, if prices go up first, then boldly take heavy short positions; if prices go down, limit losses at key positions for rebounds.
The spike position for Bitcoin at 85300 today was previously mentioned by me on September 8. The market positions I provide have always been exceptional.
Stay updated with the new public account: New Xuan Talks Chan
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