Within the observation window from September 21 to 22, 2026, on-chain and off-chain data simultaneously provided distinctly different signals: According to AiCoin data, a giant whale has accumulated the conversion of 1,308 BTC to 40,670 ETH over the past six days, and on September 22, additionally exchanged 200.71 BTC for 6,247 ETH, totaling approximately 17.2 million USD, and has staked all this ETH, with positions skewing from Bitcoin to Ethereum towards a long-term lock. Conversely, on September 21, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US totaled approximately 998.96 million USD, setting a new high for 2026, where IBIT, ARKB, and FBTC emerged as the main sources of buying power. Furthermore, the probability of the contract on Polymarket stating "BTC will reach 90,000 USD in the remaining time of September" jumped 22 percentage points to 35% within 24 hours, reflecting a rapid increase in bets on Bitcoin continuing to rise. The on-chain operations of the giant whale, preferring ETH staking with a focus on configuration and yield, coexist with ETF funds and predictive market bets focusing on a breakthrough at Bitcoin's high, demonstrating a divergence in the direction of long positions related to BTC and ETH, rather than a simple one-sided trend. Initially, this appears more like a tug-of-war phase where different types of funds and participants are making divergent bets around the dominant narrative of the market, and further analysis of more on-chain address behaviors and ETF product layer data is needed to determine which price and narrative path will gradually dominate.
Exchange 1,308 BTC in 6 Days, Whale Shifts to Staking ETH
According to on-chain monitoring from a single source, this whale address has been continuously reducing BTC while increasing ETH over the past six days: exchanging a total of 1,308 BTC for 40,670 ETH, with operations highly concentrated around September 21. On September 22, this address continued on the same path, again exchanging 200.71 BTC for 6,247 ETH, valued at approximately 17.2 million USD at the time. The materials explicitly state that the newly added 6,247 ETH has been fully staked by this address, but did not disclose specific staking platform, yield parameters, or lockup period, and the address label and source of funds remain unknown.
From a purely on-chain behavior perspective, this whale has traded multiple BTC spot for a large amount of ETH in a short period and staked all of the latest ETH, appearing to actively shift exposure from "holding BTC spot" to "holding ETH that generates staking yields" and binding to the yield logic of the Ethereum chain, rather than continuing to bear the price volatility of Bitcoin as a single asset. However, this preference can currently only be interpreted as a superficial adjustment in position structure, and cannot be used to conclude a clear judgment on the long-term fundamentals of BTC and ETH, nor can it confirm whether the whale will continue to increase or decrease ETH holdings. It should be emphasized that this series of operations only overlaps in time with the record high net buying of Bitcoin spot ETFs but lacks further evidence of a strategic connection between the two; current positioning is more reasonably viewed as an independent case of position restructuring for a single on-chain whale.
The Implication of Nearly 1 Billion Net Buying of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in One Day
According to single statistical source Trader T data, on September 21, 2026, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US totaled approximately 998.96 million USD, setting a new daily net inflow high for the year. Among the disclosed products, BlackRock's IBIT had a net buying of about 381.37 million USD, Ark's ARKB approximately 289.12 million USD, and Fidelity's FBTC approximately 238.84 million USD; these three leading products contributed the vast majority of the incremental inflow, reflecting that at this current stage, the configuration demand around Bitcoin is primarily concentrated in institution-led top ETF channels. Notably, this high net inflow occurred within the time window when the giant whale exchanged 1,308 BTC for 40,670 ETH, providing a specific timeline for the apparent contradiction of "large on-chain accounts reducing BTC while off-chain ETFs increase BTC."
In terms of implications, this nearly 1 billion USD single-day net purchase at least indicates that, in the ETF primary market on that day, new subscriptions significantly surpassed redemptions, with some institutions and qualified investors still increasing their Bitcoin positions through compliant products, rather than simultaneously following the BTC→ETH path of individual on-chain whales. But the conclusion must be cautious: on one hand, current data comes from a single source, and the materials do not disclose the net inflow scale for other spot ETFs besides IBIT, ARKB, and FBTC, making it impossible to piece together a complete picture of "all market ETF investor behavior"; on the other hand, this is just an extreme value recorded in one day, and whether the same intensity of net buying will continue in the following days remains to be seen. Under the premise of incomplete information, a more reasonable interpretation is to view September 21 as a signal of phase strengthening in ETF demand for Bitcoin this year, rather than a definitive long-term trend.
Huang Licheng Goes Long 32,000 ETH with 25x Leverage, Estimated Profit of Approximately 3.96 Million
According to monitoring, during September 21 to 22, "Brother Ma Ji" Huang Licheng's related address held approximately 32,000 ETH long positions on the contract side, with a leverage ratio of approximately 25 times, an opening price of about 2,619.90 USD, and a liquidation price of about 2,484.13 USD. From this structure, the price retracement space allowed for the position is not wide; once ETH experiences moderate declines relative to the opening price, it will approach the liquidation zone. As of now, the floating profit on this ETH leveraged long position is about 3.24 million USD, with an overall account floating profit of approximately 3.96 million USD, indicating that the direction of its recent concentrated bets has gained a considerable paper profit in the short term.
Compared with the previously mentioned on-chain whale swapping BTC for ETH while preferring staking, and the ongoing buying of BTC by spot ETF funds, Huang Licheng's address represents another type of risk preference: using high leverage to magnify short-term market betting in a single direction rather than obtaining relatively stable exposure through spot holding or staking. The materials also mention his continued accumulation of ETH and HYPE long positions on the contract side, but do not disclose any specific scale, average price, or liquidation price information regarding HYPE positions, hence it can only be confirmed that he has also taken a bullish direction on that token, without quantifying the weight or risk exposure of his positions. Overall, this 32,000 ETH long position with 25x leverage reflects a high-risk optimistic bet on ETH's short-term rise, with the potential to maintain profits depending on whether ETH prices continue to operate above the liquidation price in a safe zone.
Polymarket Bets on BTC Reaching 90,000 USD in September Heat Up
During the same period as the current market, the contract pricing on the predictive market platform Polymarket concerning "whether BTC will hit a high in the remaining time of September" shows notable changes. According to monitoring from a single source, the contract "BTC will reach 90,000 USD in the remaining time of September" currently has a transaction probability of about 35%, which has risen approximately 22 percentage points compared to 24 hours ago; another contract "BTC will reach 92,500 USD" has a probability of about 17%, increasing about 10 percentage points within 24 hours. Both contracts settle based on Binance's BTC/USDT one-minute candlestick, and as long as any one-minute candlestick touches the corresponding price level within the remaining time of September, it counts as the event occurring. Therefore, it essentially represents a short-term event bet surrounding whether the price "will be touched", rather than a long-term trend judgment.
This significant upward movement in probabilities within a short time reflects that within the participants of Polymarket, the bullish sentiment regarding BTC reaching new highs within September is heating up. However, the current materials do not disclose the total liquidity size on these contracts, the number of participants, nor the distribution of large bet directions, making it impossible to judge whether the bets are primarily driven by a few large funds and cannot be extrapolated as a consensus among the overall market or institutional investors. Considering that the daily net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US set an annual high and that giant whale addresses continue transitioning from BTC to ETH while preferring staking on-chain paths, this combination on Polymarket can only serve as a local sample of short-term price betting sentiment, rather than a definitive guide to future trends.
Divergence in Long Bets on BTC and ETH, Is the Rotation Signal Valid?
Placing the four on-chain and off-chain clues in the same timeline: On one hand, a giant whale has exchanged a total of 1,308 BTC for 40,670 ETH over the past six days, and after further exchanging 200.71 BTC for 6,247 ETH on September 22, has staked all of it, shifting positions from BTC towards ETH and leaning long-term; on the other hand, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately 998.96 million USD on September 21, marking a new annual high, with IBIT, ARKB, and FBTC contributing the majority of the increase. Adding in Huang Licheng's address with approximately 32,000 ETH and a 25x leveraged long bet, as well as the probabilities of the contracts on Polymarket reaching 90,000 USD and 92,500 USD rising to 35% and 17% respectively within 24 hours, it is observable that long positions surrounding BTC and ETH are undergoing directional divergence at the same stage, rather than a unified rotation in a single line.
From a structural perspective, institutional products are currently more concentrated on increasing Bitcoin through spot ETFs, while on-chain whales and some high-leverage personal accounts are ramping up Ethereum, amplifying sensitivity to ETH performance through staking or high-leverage contracts, and participants in the predictive market are betting towards the upward movement of Bitcoin. Since all data comes from a single monitoring or statistical channel, and there is a lack of a more complete cross-section of market-wide positions and product layers, this phase shift of "BTC→ETH" can at most be viewed as a potential embryonic form of asset rotation. The forthcoming variables that need to be closely tracked include: whether this whale continues to increase ETH staking or begins to re-accumulate BTC, whether the high net purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs can continue in subsequent trading days, and whether the upward probabilities of relevant Polymarket contracts show significant adjustments; only after these indicators form a more consistent evolution direction can the current divergence in long bets possibly be validated as a clearer cross-asset rotation trend.
Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
AiCoin exclusive Hyperliquid benefits: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin exclusive Aster benefits: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
