In yesterday's analysis, the overall idea remains bullish, with a key focus on the price performance around 85,600. Subsequently, Bitcoin quickly surged, reaching a peak of 87,300, and once again produced a strong bullish candlestick.

From the previous fluctuation range, Bitcoin primarily operated between 75,500 and 82,200, and this time the upward movement significantly expanded. Combining with the Fibonacci structure, the price has directly touched the 1.618 position, indicating that this round of rising momentum is very strong.

However, after surpassing 87,000, the market began to experience some degree of retracement. Currently, this retracement cannot be understood as a trend reversal; a more accurate definition should be a short-term adjustment within an uptrend.

The short positions set near 85,500 to 87,000 are currently in a passive position. The reason is simple: the current main trend is still bullish, and short positions are more targeted at short-term pullbacks after a rapid rise, rather than judging that the mid-term trend has turned bearish.

1. Hourly Chart: Upward Structure Remains, Short-Term Enters Adjustment

From the hourly chart, the market fluctuated continuously around 81,500 to 82,000 yesterday, and during the weekend, it dipped to 80,100 before rebounding, but never truly broke above the upper pressure.

The real point of interest is the movement around 5 AM.

At that time, the price again showed a downward move, but the lowest it reached was only 80,500, and it did not fall back to 80,100 again. The price continued to fluctuate, with lows being increasingly higher, especially around 80,700, which was not effectively broken.

After several consecutive retests, the price formed a clear small-step upward structure, then began to rapidly break upward.

The first phase quickly broke through 85,000 and continued to push upward, ultimately reaching 87,300 in the early morning.

After the peak, two obvious pullbacks occurred: the first retracement reached around 86,500, and the second further dropped to around 85,300. Currently, the price is supported around 85,300.

Therefore, the hourly chart still belongs to the upward structure, but after the consecutive rapid rise, it has entered a short-term adjustment phase.

Currently, two key levels need to be closely monitored:

Upper Resistance: Around 86,300.

Lower Support: Around 85,300.

If 85,300 can hold, then the current retracement can still be understood as a normal digestion during the rising process; if it effectively breaks down from here, the adjustment space on the hourly chart may further open up. Daily shares real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnosis, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account《Crypto Old Ding》,Join the community for strategies!

2. 4-Hour Chart: The Decline in Early September Has Been Basically Recovered

Looking at the 4-hour cycle, we need to answer a very key question:

Has the decline in early September truly ended?

Starting from around 82,200 on September 4, Bitcoin fell all the way down to a low of 74,900.

Now, the price has not only returned above 82,200 but has also fully recouped the entire decline from before.

More importantly, after successfully breaking through 82,200, the price did not fall below 80,000 again during the retracement process and then continued to push upward to 87,300.

This indicates a significant change in the 4-hour structure.

The rebound that started from around 74,900 has now completed a substantial repair of the early September decline and has formed an upward breakout structure.

Therefore, the current bias on the 4-hour level is still bullish.

However, after several consecutive bullish candlesticks, the price has begun to pull back and consolidate from 87,300, indicating a slowdown in the upward speed, rather than a trend reversal.

So, if 85,300 is not effectively broken today, and the price continues to oscillate narrowly here, then short positions will be somewhat uncomfortable.

In this situation, one should either wait for the market to provide further direction or choose to exit, rather than simply interpreting the lack of a continued short-term rise as a trend reversal. Daily shares real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnosis, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account《Crypto Old Ding》,Join the community for strategies!

3. Daily Chart: A More Than One-Month Consolidation Range Has Broken Upward

The daily chart structure is clearer.

From previous movements, Bitcoin has formed a significant bullish candlestick breakout after more than a month of consolidation.

This means that the earlier structure of rise - consolidation - rise that started in July has now re-entered an upward progression phase.

The daily closing has broken through the consolidation range of over a month, hence the overall structure is clearly bullish.

However, it is important to note whether, after the breakout, the price will continue to rise quickly or enter into a new consolidation and digestion phase, which still needs to be observed.

So, currently, the focus is not to blindly chase the rise, but to observe the follow-up situation after the breakout.

4. Weekly Chart: Breakthrough at 82,800, but Confirmation is Needed This Week

The weekly level has also shown obvious improvement.

From the entire bull market Fibonacci structure, the price has now surpassed the 0.618 position.

However, it's only Tuesday now, and there has been no weekly close yet. Therefore, whether this breakthrough can ultimately hold, we need to wait for the weekly confirmation.

We have previously emphasized the importance of the 82,000 to 84,000 range, as it relates to whether the subsequent market can extend upward.

Now, with the price breaking above 82,800 and pushing further up to 87,300, this indicates a clear strengthening in the weekly structure.

However, if this week ultimately fails to hold this critical zone and falls back below the breakout level, the situation will need to be reassessed.

We are not at this point yet, so there is no need for excessive predetermination for now.

From a larger cycle perspective, Bitcoin is still in a recovery phase after a significant drop from the historical high of 126,000, and there is still some space to the larger level of resistance around 98,000.

5. Four Cycles Align in Direction

When integrating the hourly, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts, the current structure is indeed very clear:

Hourly: Short-Term Adjustment within an Uptrend.

4-Hour: The September decline has been largely recovered, overall still bullish.

Daily: Breakthrough of a more than one-month consolidation range.

Weekly: Breakthrough at 82,800, the overall structure turns bullish, but confirmation is still needed this week.

Therefore, the direction above the mid-term remains bullish.

The real change is in the short-term rate of rise.

After several consecutive bullish candlesticks, the price surged to 87,300, and the short-term pullback is a normal phenomenon.

As long as the previous fluctuation area around 82,300 is not effectively broken, the mid-term bullish structure remains intact. Daily shares real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnosis, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account《Crypto Old Ding》,Join the community for strategies!

6. Moving Average Structure: 360-Day Moving Average has Shifted from Resistance to Support

From the daily moving averages, the price has now stood above the main moving average system.

The 360-day moving average has gradually shifted from its previous resistance level to support, currently around the 80,000 level.

Meanwhile, the 5-day and 7-day moving averages have also started to rise in tandem.

This indicates that the daily price is currently above the main moving averages, and the overall trend still leans bullish.

Therefore, even if attempting to short now, it can only be understood as a response to the short-term adjustment after the rise, and not interpreted as a mid-term trend turning bearish.

7. Open Interest: Price Increase with Decreased Open Interest in Late Uptrend

Let's look at the open interest.

On September 21, during the day, Bitcoin fluctuated mainly around 80,900 to 81,700, during which open interest showed a certain degree of recovery, especially in the afternoon phase, where the increase rate was significant.

As the price started to rise, the increase in price and open interest formed a certain synergy.

However, after surpassing 87,000, the situation changed.

The price continued to reach new highs, but open interest began to decline, indicating a noticeable price increase with reduced open interest.

This does not necessarily negate the entire upward trend but at least indicates that the sustainability of the subsequent rise is declining.

Therefore, the pullback after the peak is a relatively normal market performance.

What needs to be closely monitored now is whether this retracement will further amplify.

8. Bollinger Bands: Hourly Cooling, Above 4-Hour Still Strong

The hourly Bollinger Bands currently have the middle line around 85,600, and the price is testing this position.

If the hourly chart effectively breaks below the middle line, then a clearer adjustment phase may enter, with the lower line potentially reaching around 84,000.

Thus, the most critical observation currently on the hourly chart is the performance near 85,600.

On the other hand, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands remain noticeably stronger.

Since the dip near 74,900 on September 16, the price gradually returned to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, followed by continuous upward movement, even briefly operating outside the upper line.

After September 18, the price did not truly pull back to the 4-hour Bollinger middle line, continuing to push upward.

Currently, although the price has returned to inside the Bollinger Bands, the width of the bands is still expanding.

This indicates that it is more a case of second round upward sprint speed slowing, rather than the 4-hour trend having weakened.

Therefore, the 4-hour chart still belongs to a bullish structure running along the upper Bollinger line. Daily shares real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnosis, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account《Crypto Old Ding》,Join the community for strategies!

9. Daily Bollinger Bands: Previous Multiple Weak Signals, Then Forming a Strong Breakout

The daily Bollinger structure is also worth attention.

The pullback in early September reached the lower line, then the price returned inside the channel.

During this period, on September 9, 11, and 14, several upward spikes occurred, but the close returned near the middle line.

This type of movement can easily lead to short-term stop losses.

Then, on September 18, a big bullish candlestick breakout occurred, putting significant pressure on previously held short positions that did not exit in time.

By September 21, the price quickly surged above 87,000, further amplifying the pressure on shorts.

Therefore, the oscillation around 85,000 to 86,000 needs to closely observe whether the hourly Bollinger middle line is effectively broken below.

If it is effectively broken, then further observation is needed around 84,000.

If it fails to break, then current short positions need to be more cautious, as the market has already experienced significant short squeeze.

This again highlights a trading issue:

Making a wrong directional bet is not scary; what truly needs to be cautioned against is holding onto losing positions.

When the market movement clearly no longer aligns with the original judgment, even if it hasn't completely hit the stop-loss level yet, it is essential to adjust according to the actual structure in a timely manner, rather than stubbornly holding just because of unwillingness to admit a mistake.

10. MACD: Short Cycle Cools Down, Long Cycle Resumes Strength

The hourly MACD has shown a death cross, and the upward momentum has noticeably weakened.

This indicates that the short-term has indeed entered a pullback and consolidation phase.

However, it is important to note that the death cross on the hourly chart is still far from the 0 axis, so this death cross alone is insufficient to judge a trend reversal directly.

The 4-hour MACD still has upward momentum, just that with the price's rapid rise, momentum starts to slow, and trading volume has also decreased.

The daily chart tells a completely different story.

The daily MACD has turned from a death cross in early September back to a golden cross, which is positioned above the 0 axis, and has shown an expansion in trading volume.

This indicates that the upward momentum on the daily level is being re-energized.

Therefore, the current conclusion from MACD also remains:

Short cycle cools down, long cycle strengthens.

This is fundamentally consistent with the conclusion obtained earlier of “trend leaning bullish, short-term adjustment.” Daily shares real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnosis, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account《Crypto Old Ding》,Join the community for strategies!

11. DeMark: Short-Term Top Alerts Intensify, But No Signal for Long Cycle Reversal Yet

In terms of the DeMark indicators, clear top 9 alerts have emerged on the hourly chart, 2-hour, 3-hour, and 4-hour intervals.

Especially on the 4-hour chart during this upward phase, multiple top 9 alerts have already appeared.

After the first two instances, the price only pulled back briefly before rising again.

Thus, whether this time will lead to a more noticeable adjustment still needs to be monitored.

However, it is worth noting that there has not been a significant top 9 or 13 signal on the larger cycle above the daily level.

Currently, the weekly chart has not yet formed a matured top signal.

From a larger cycle perspective, over a long period, falling from the high of 126,000 to 57,000 and then rebounding to 87,000, the weekly level has not formed a matured top 9.

Therefore, the current DeMark seems to be reminding:

Short-term gains have been too rapid and need adjustment; but a trend reversal on the larger cycle has not yet appeared.

12. Fibonacci: 84,000 to 84,700 is an Important Short-Term Support Area

After readjusting the Fibonacci structure, short-term focus can be given to the 0.786 level around 84,700.

Currently, the price has not retraced to this level, so the upward structure remains fairly intact.

If the short-term continues to retrace from around 86,000, then the first stage to observe is at 84,700.

After the daily level resets its high at 87,300, the 0.886 level also corresponds to around 84,000.

Thus, the positions at 84,000 and 84,700 form a significant support area.

In summary:

Short-Term Resistance: 86,000 to 86,300.

First Support: Around 84,700.

Important Support: Around 84,000.

Mid-Term Structure Defense: Around 82,300. Daily shares real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnosis, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account《Crypto Old Ding》,Join the community for strategies!

13. Final Conclusion: Trend Leans Bullish, Short-Term Adjustment

Bringing together all cycles and indicators from today, the conclusion remains fundamentally unchanged:

Bitcoin has broken through a consolidation range spanning over a month on the daily chart, has recovered the entire decline from early September on the 4-hour chart, and has also surpassed 82,800 on the weekly chart.

Thus, the overall structure remains bullish above the mid-term.

However, after continuous rises and peaking at 87,300, the short-term progression speed has significantly slowed, evidenced by the pullback on the hourly chart, the death cross on the MACD, and the decrease in open interest with rising prices. DeMark has also shown concentrated top warnings in the smaller cycles.

Therefore, the most reasonable definition remains:

Trend Leans Bullish, Short-Term Adjustment.

The market may undergo oscillation and digestion at high levels, with the possibility of further retracements.

If key support holds after the retracement, then there remains the potential for another rise towards 87,300.

Therefore, it is not advisable to define the market as a trend reversal simply due to short-term retracement.

The real focus should still be on key positions such as 85,300, 84,700, 84,000, and lower at 82,300.

As long as the critical mid-term structure remains intact, this current situation should be understood as a normal adjustment following a strong upward move.

Daily shares real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnosis, liquidation ideas, and market practical insights. Scan to follow the public account《Crypto Old Ding》,Join the community for strategies!

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