Yesterday, the market oscillated at a high level the entire day, but the degree of correction was significantly lower than expected, indicating that the current market frenzy has not completely subsided. The bulls have clearly entered an overheated stage, but prices have remained high, making it difficult for the bears to initiate a substantial correction.

In the past 24 hours, the total market liquidations amounted to approximately 688 million USD, of which BTC bear liquidations were about 536 million USD, indicating that this round of rising prices has formed a distinct bear squeeze and short covering effect.

Going forward, the focus needs to be on this Friday's options expiration. As quarterly options enter the expiration window, prices are far from certain key strike-heavy areas, and capital speculation before the expiration could further amplify volatility.

The current situation can be summarized in one sentence:

The short-term is already overheated, but the larger structure remains strong; one can wait for a pullback, or for high-signal shorts after a rally, the least favorable approach is to chase prices due to high emotional sentiment.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Viewpoint: Prioritize high shorts, with low longs as support, focus on preventing "the last spike."

BTC is currently holding near the 1-hour support level, with prices reluctant to move down; however, the divergence in momentum across multiple timeframes has become very apparent.

Therefore, the short-term still needs to guard against a typical pattern:

First, spike upward to wipe out the bears → create a breakthrough sentiment → then quickly fall back to complete the adjustment.

The most significant contradiction remains the simultaneous presence of structural breakout and volume-price divergence.

The 4-hour price continues to refresh highs, but the trading volume has not increased in sync; the 2-hour has been in a prolonged state of high divergence. The higher the price rises, the weaker the new chasing funds become, which is a cautionary signal for the short term.

In terms of wave structure, if we are currently in the extended wave 5 phase, then around 87390 is worth closely observing for signs of phase exhaustion.

But it must be emphasized:

A short-term pullback does not mean that the larger trend has reversed.

BTC has previously completed the breakthrough of the 84000 and important Fibonacci area; therefore, even if a rapid adjustment occurs, it is more suitable to prioritize understanding based on the confirmation of a pullback following the breakout.

Support: 85200, 84500, 83600
Resistance: 86900, 87500, 88800

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

Viewpoint: Prioritize high shorts, with low longs as support, 2780—2800 enters a true resistance zone.

The short-term overheat level of ETH is currently even higher than that of BTC.

The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have both entered the overbought zone, and the ADX is also at a high level, indicating that the trend remains strong, but the marginal space to continue upward has begun to be limited.

In terms of candlestick structure, after recent continuous spikes, clear upper shadows have appeared, indicating that selling pressure at high levels has begun to emerge actively. Multiple attempts to break higher have failed to produce effective breakouts, which also means the market is gradually entering a phase of high-level oscillation for digestion.

The most important level currently is 2780—2800.

If a breakout occurs with significant volume and stabilization, then one can continue to observe 2830, 2850, and 2888 above; if another high attempt fails, there is a need to guard against the concentration of short-term profit-taking.

On a higher level, 2550 still belongs to the important structural support after the prior breakout. As long as the larger breakout structure has not been damaged, the mid-term upward logic cannot be directly negated simply because of short-term overbought conditions.

Tencent Meeting 24-hour live broadcast: 789-240-2938

Aicoin group chat search for Huiying Community or click the group link to join: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=onjrNpKn6

This article is published by 【Huiying Community】, representing personal opinions only. Due to the certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
If you need to obtain more timely daily analysis and strategic ideas, feel free to add Safew’s contact information or add three lines: HYSQks888, free entry into the group for learning.
15 professional analysts in the community monitor the market live all day. Here you can not only learn technical analysis methods in practical scenarios but also systematically understand liquidation strategies and risk control systems.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。