SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell plans to sell over $52 million worth of stock. Although constrained by a 10b5-1 plan, the timing coincides with the eve of the Starship’s first orbital test.

Written by: Bu Shuqing, Wall Street Journals

After going public, SpaceX has seen its first signal of executive stock selling. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell plans to sell over $52 million worth of stock, with the timing right before the Starship's first orbital test, bringing the market's differing views on the company's high valuation back into focus.

Regulatory documents show that Shotwell intends to sell 342,170 shares, totaling a market value of about $51.96 million, with the related shares acquired through cash-settled stock options. Meanwhile, another financial disclosure revealed that an investment account held in the name of former President Trump had conducted short-term trading of SpaceX stock in July, further raising external concerns about insider trading.

The SPCX stock price rose about 2% on Tuesday, closing at $154.72, ending a two-day losing streak.

This disclosure comes just before SpaceX's planned 14th flight of Starship, with a mission targeting no earlier than September 28, that will attempt to deliver the upper stage into Earth's orbit and deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites. The success or failure of the test will directly affect market expectations regarding SpaceX’s commercialization efforts and could potentially impact the stock price.

10b5-1 plan provides protection; compliance of selling confirmed

Shotwell's stock sale was not an impulsive decision.

In SpaceX's first quarterly report post-IPO, it was disclosed that she adopted a 10b5-1 trading plan on June 23, covering up to 585,605 shares. The number of shares listed in the sale notice did not exceed the disclosure limit of that plan, and the company also stated that most of its holdings remain subject to an extended lock-up period.

The 10b5-1 plan is a compliance tool under U.S. securities law that allows company insiders to pre-arrange stock trading schedules, aiming to separate trades from the receipt of insider information and thereby avoid insider trading allegations. Since this plan was adopted before the testing window for Starship was confirmed, it provides a clear legal basis for this stock sale.

However, analysts point out that there is a gap between compliance and market perception. In a context where the company's valuation is high and the commercialization prospects of Starship remain uncertain, executive stock sales are often interpreted by the market as implicit judgments on short-term stock prices, even if the transactions themselves comply with regulations.

Trump account's short-term trading raises questions of conflict of interest

In contrast to Shotwell's planned stock sale, the investment account held in Trump's name exhibits more controversial short-term trading characteristics. Disclosure documents reveal that this account bought $15,001 to $50,000 worth of SpaceX stock on July 10, then sold $1,001 to $15,000 worth on July 17; prior disclosures also indicated that the account made purchases on June 23.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingles responded by stating, "President Trump and any family members have no ability to direct, influence or provide advice on how the investment portfolio is managed or when trades are made."

Nevertheless, the trading activity has attracted widespread attention. SpaceX holds important contracts with NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, and as the highest government decision-maker, Trump's account holding and trading of the company's stock inherently presents a potential perception of conflict of interest. For retail investors, insider trading behavior—whether from company executives or politically connected accounts—is often viewed as a reference signal for assessing stock trends, thus influencing their confidence in holding shares.

Starship orbital test: A pivotal moment for high valuation verification

The timing of this stock sale disclosure coincides closely with one of SpaceX's most significant technical milestones.

The company plans to execute the 14th flight of Starship no earlier than September 28, with the mission target being the first attempt to deliver the upper stage into Earth's orbit, which will circle the Earth six times during a 10-hour flight, and then deploy 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites, with the spacecraft ultimately splashing down in the Pacific Ocean.

This is the most commercially significant test of Starship to date. SpaceX is gradually shifting its launch business focus from Falcon 9 to Starship, as some commercial customers are finding it difficult to book Falcon 9 launch slots beyond 2028, looking for alternative solutions. The company has begun to reduce Falcon 9 production capacity, though the rocket is expected to remain in service for several years, especially in government missions, to complement the development of Starship.

If this orbital test is successfully completed, it will provide strong backing for SpaceX's narrative of Starship commercialization, supporting its current high valuation; conversely, if the test encounters significant failures, it may trigger market re-evaluations of the company's technological roadmap and profit timeline, putting downward pressure on the stock price. In the context where executive selling signals have already been released, the marginal impact of the test results on investor sentiment will be further amplified.

High growth expectations coexisting with uncertainties

Since going public, SpaceX's stock price performance has been strongly supported by market expectations of its monopolistic position in commercial space and the profit potential of its Starlink business. However, the emergence of executive selling has made the divergence in market views regarding the current valuation levels more explicit.

Supporters argue that once Starship achieves scaled commercial operation, it will completely reshape the global launch market landscape, rendering the current valuation forward-looking and reasonable. Detractors point out that the lengthy R&D cycle and high technical risks of Starship, along with the transitional risks between the contraction of Falcon 9 capacity and Starship commercialization, and the fact that executives choose to liquidate equity on the eve of key tests, all serve as market signals.

For retail investors, finding a balance between insider trading signals, uncertainty in technology testing, and long-term growth narratives will be a core consideration in their holding decisions.