Today is Friday, and it coincides with the Mid-Autumn holiday, which may affect the liquidity in the Asian market. However, compared to the holiday factors, what deserves more attention today is the volatility risk brought by the large-scale options expiry.

The market has already experienced a significant round of bidirectional leverage cleansing: both bulls and bears have faced large-scale liquidations, indicating that leveraged funds' impact on prices is clearly increasing in the recent market.

There is also a clear divergence in cycles:

The bullish structure of the larger trend has not been broken, but the 12-hour and daily charts still face adjustment pressures; the short cycle, however, is repeatedly recovering.

Yesterday, after the market dipped to an 8-hour support level, it was quickly pulled back by funds, re-entering high-level fluctuations. This indicates that there is still support below, but the momentum on the 2-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour charts has significantly decreased, and the divergence between bulls and bears is continuously widening.

What needs to be guarded against today is the double kill of bulls and bears:

First, break upwards to sweep the shorts, then quickly drop to kill the longs; or first dip down to complete the liquidations and then quickly pull back.

Thus, the most important thing now is not to predict the direction in advance, but to hit key positions and wait for volume confirmation.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: High-level fluctuations, mainly shorting high, supporting low, temporarily looking at the 83000—85500 range.

BTC has risen from about 75900 on September 17 to around 87400, with a phase increase of nearly 15%. It has currently pulled back to around 84000, which is more suitable to be defined as a normal reset after a continuous rise, rather than a confirmed major trend reversal.

The daily moving average structure still maintains a bullish bias; the EMA15 and EMA30 continue to be below the price, forming dynamic support. Meanwhile, the price has returned to the mid-to-upper band area from the upper Bollinger Band, and there have not yet been any major bearish candles that would truly break the trend.

However, the short-cycle momentum has clearly cooled.

Therefore, today we will not guess the one-sided direction, but will handle around the 83000—85500 range:

If there is a rapid dip to 83000—83300 and it finds support, we can pay attention to a recovery; if the rebound at 85000—85500 is blocked, then we will continue to look for shorting opportunities.

Only a true volume breakout above 85500 or an effective drop below 83000 will necessitate considering a switch in the fluctuating mindset.

Support: 83000-83300, 82500
Resistance: 85000-85500, 86000, 87000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: High-level fluctuations, shorting high and supporting low, closely following BTC.

ETH is currently also in a range adjustment phase after a high-level pullback, and the mid-term structure still shows resilience, but the short cycle has entered adjustment.

At the same time, there is a certain pressure for profit-taking in the market. Some large positions have shifted during the high-level pullback phase, indicating that after the previous rapid rise, funds have begun to show significant divergence.

Today, while BTC options are set to expire, ETH, although not the direct core of this option event, may still experience significant volatility due to the overall risk appetite and Bitcoin's fluctuations spreading quickly.

Therefore, ETH is more suitable for range trading today:

Observe support at 2650—2680, and observe the first round of pressure at 2700—2720; if it continues to push up to 2750 or even 2780—2800, then focus on whether the volume can keep up.

If BTC suddenly breaks down quickly, ETH, as a high-elasticity asset, usually exhibits larger volatility, thus requiring particular control of contract positions.

Support: 2650-2680, 2630, 2580
Resistance: 2700-2720, 2750, 2780-2800

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This article is originally published by [Huí Yíng Community] and only represents personal opinions. Due to the certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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