Yesterday, it was mentioned that Trump's midterm elections are a significant negative for the cryptocurrency market; some friends are quite interested in the impact in this regard. Intuitively speaking, if Trump fails, the impact on the cryptocurrency market will be substantial, especially on Bitcoin and Trump's token, with potential breaches of six and five. Why would this result occur? This is a defect in the American system; midterm elections do not lead to Trump's downfall, as the elections only include seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the last election, Trump briefly discussed the responsibilities of these two chambers, let's review that. The House of Representatives is mainly for legislation; all bills need to pass through the House's resolution, which includes the clarity bill, along with the recently passed Strategic Reserve Act. At that time, Trump's advantage was enormous, with the Republican Party dominating both the House and the Senate over the Democratic Party. Currently, the Republican Party has a slight advantage in Congress: Senate 53–47, House 219–214.

In terms of importance, the Senate is slightly more important, because besides legislation, the Senate has a very significant power: to approve the president's nominations of senior officials and federal judges. Due to Trump's strategic missteps, Iran has not compromised, and even today it has been reported that even if the U.S. meets conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will not make concessions on its nuclear program. Iran's demands are getting higher, and the chips it wants are increasing, which speaks to some issues. Additionally, high domestic inflation and weakened consumer confidence in the U.S. have led to a rise in inflation expectations to 4.6% for the next year. The probability of an interest rate hike cycle will become increasingly high, with pressure from both domestic and foreign sides. It is highly likely that both chambers will lose their previous status. Frankly speaking, the smooth implementation of cryptocurrency regulations is largely due to the Republican Party's sufficient seats in the last election. If both are lost, the resistance to the clarity bill will grow, potentially leading to its inability to pass for 27 years.

Why does Trump come to this conclusion? It is also because in this discussion of the clarity bill, there are many opponents, and divisions have emerged within the Republican Party. Trump's compromises have even reached 80-90%, giving up the right to issue currency attributed to the president, yet he still cannot gain more votes. Compromises on core interests are very difficult to achieve. For example, the request for currency issuance rights from ZEC essentially means surrendering all power and interests related to the cryptocurrency market. Trump has also realized these problems; before the bill passed, he was constantly issuing coins. Thus, the impact here is Trump Coin, which is almost impossible to reach new historical highs in the future; the future of this coin is already finished. Fortunately, from the very beginning, Trump advised everyone not to engage with such coins. As for the concerns everyone has, will the midterm elections lead to Trump’s downfall? There is no need to worry at all; the impact on him is not that great. What Trump is talking about is position; at most, he will face scrutiny and impeachment, limiting his power, but his job will not be lost.

Looking at his recent actions, he is basically prepared for failure, whether through issuing coins or various compromises; his chance of winning is extremely slim. After a failure, the probability of short selling will increase, leading to a bear market cycle. Once he fails, it can directly define a bear market, and this point is beyond doubt. The Democratic and Republican parties are not very harmonious; Trump's failure will further increase the likelihood of the Democratic Party's victory next time. As long as they clean up this mess, they will achieve tremendous success. Coupled with the approaching interest rate hike cycle, in the remaining two years, considering interest rate hikes, after the next presidential victory, there will be ample time for a monetary easing strategy. Even if a financial crisis arises in the current phase, the Democratic Party will certainly be able to accept it. In this phase, the impression given to the cryptocurrency market is that of capital fleeing and the inability to carry value.

Trump summarizes: After explaining so much content, the core message is still to tell everyone that the cryptocurrency market is still quite far from talking about a bull market. Subjectively, many friends feel that the current stage is the early stage of a bull market, but the unstable world pattern will create too much uncertainty. The monetary easing cycle, partisan struggles in the U.S., and technological breakthroughs will all affect the future of humanity. If we focus only on the cryptocurrency market, according to the laws of capital, it indeed looks like a nascent bull market, having gone through previous bottoms and prices above 120,000. The current price is worth buying compared to before, but everyone needs to be clear about why such prices exist. That is also because the initial expectation was too high; for example, this price already includes the passage of the clarity bill, and the essence of the Strategic Reserve Act is to hope for capital support for certain U.S. strategies. Clearly, these ideas have not been accomplished yet; how can we talk about higher positions under the premise that the previous promises have not yet been fulfilled?

In the investment world, Trump can take on the role of the antagonist, hoping that everyone can heed the advice as Sun Ge said! Everyone can see a lot of positive news; Trump can see it too, but the steady progress of the stablecoin's market value has not brought much aid to the cryptocurrency world. Currently, Trump wants to separate the stablecoin's market value from the cryptocurrency market entirely, as they are two distinct concepts, just utilizing the technology of the cryptocurrency market. The tokenization process of U.S. stocks is also advancing; American pensions and Trump's slogans have indeed brought enough traffic to the cryptocurrency market. Currently, it is still in the process of digestion, especially under the strong pressure of negative news, making it difficult to replicate the initial glory. At the same time, this does not mean that Bitcoin's price won't break upward; it just means it cannot surpass previous highs or the bull market imagined by everyone. The definition of stablecoins can be understood as competitors to Bitcoin; they are not created for Bitcoin. As the old saying goes, Trump has yet to see a bull market during an interest rate hike cycle! Even if there is a breakthrough this time, the strong pressure at 92,000 is still there; without a breakthrough, it will go down all the way, until this year's interest rate hikes and Trump's failure, which may redefine lower prices, but Trump does not expect new lows this year.

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