From September 22 to 24, according to AiCoin data, the four major exchanges Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitfinex saw a combined net outflow of approximately $2.52 billion in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, as of September 26, the total net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $2.3858 billion. The sizes of funds from both channels are almost equal, yet there is a divergence signal of "exchanges bleeding vs. ETFs continuously buying" in terms of direction, and there is currently no direct evidence indicating a causal relationship between the two. At the same time, the current price of Bitcoin is about $84,000, with a total crypto market capitalization of approximately $3 trillion, and Bitcoin's dominance has dropped to about 58.5%. The total market capitalization of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin, remains in the range of approximately $1.17 trillion to $1.19 trillion, reflecting an approximate 33% increase since mid-August. Additionally, the Glassnode altcoin cycle signal rose to 81.25 on September 22, while the altcoin season index is only about 45. Adjusted MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) for the 30-day/365-day ratio surpassed the 365-day average on August 20 and broke through the 1.0 baseline on September 20, viewed by some analysts as a sign of transitioning from the "early bull market stage" into the "bull market stage," with the market structure showing a misalignment between the dominant assets and the altcoin sector's uptrend. On the sentiment front, the probability of the "BTC touching $85,000 in the remaining period of September" contract on Polymarket is about 70%, having increased by about 19 percentage points within 24 hours, reflecting a rise in short-term expectations while intensifying the divergence among exiting exchange chips, compliant ETF buying, and the expansion of altcoins.
Net outflow of $2.5 billion in three days: Bitcoin moved away from exchanges
At the same time that sentiment is rapidly heating up, large-scale Bitcoin movements began to leave the major spot exchanges. Public materials show that from September 22 to 24, 2026, the four platforms Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitfinex experienced a total net outflow of about $2.52 billion in Bitcoin. On September 22 alone, the net outflow was about $1.57 billion, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total over three days, primarily contributed by Binance—on that day, approximately $1.19 billion worth of Bitcoin was moved off the platform, with the remaining net outflow of about $950 million spread over the 23rd and 24th.
In conventional interpretation, this type of "net outflow" often signifies that chips are migrating from exchange addresses to cold wallets or custody institutions, viewed as a signal of reduced short-term selling pressure and a bias toward long-term holding. However, in this event, relevant statistics only come from a single media channel, and the corresponding specific receiving addresses have not been publicly disclosed on-chain. It remains unclear whether the funds are entering institutional custody, the wallets of large whales, or more dispersed retail holdings, lacking verifiable evidence. Similarly, no on-chain records can prove that this migration corresponds with a specific institution or a specific spot Bitcoin ETF subscription. Readers should fully consider the limitations of data definitions and sources when interpreting "net outflow from exchanges" as direct evidence of large-scale coin withdrawals by a single entity or a particular type of buying, and temporarily regard it as a neutral fact that chips are leaving a selling environment.
ETF absorbs nearly $2.4 billion this week: traditional buying continues to rise
On the other end of the "coins flowing out of exchanges," this week saw a notable net demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to AiCoin data, as of September 26, this week, the total net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $2.3858 billion, with clearer differentiation among leading products: IBIT contributed about $1.1576 billion, FBTC about $701.6 million, ARKB about $294.7 million, and MSBT about $200 million. Looking day by day, September 22 saw a net inflow of about $714.7 million, and September 23 saw about $346 million, combined with the roughly $2.52 billion net outflow of Bitcoin from the four exchanges between September 22 and 24, indicating that the two clues of “traditional markets increasing Bitcoin allocation” and “spot positions leaving exchanges” are comparable in magnitude within the same time frame.
From a result standpoint, an intuitive interpretation suggests there is some degree of migration from "on-chain to off-chain": some wallets that were previously at exchanges may be using tools like ETFs to rebuild their Bitcoin exposure within the traditional financial system; it is also possible that the two funds are independently going long in their respective tracks, leading to overlapping timelines of Bitcoin price increases. However, there is currently no public evidence showing a one-to-one relationship between ETF net purchases and exchange net outflows, nor can the precise pathways of funds be delineated from address and product dimensions, rendering this relationship a working hypothesis needing further validation. It is worth noting that on September 26, the T-Strive Digital Credit Preferred Income ETF launched by Strive plans to invest at least 80% of its assets in preferred stocks of Bitcoin treasury companies and related derivatives, with initial allocations mainly focusing on Strategy’s STRC preferred stock and Strive's own SATA preferred stock. This indicates that traditional finance-related Bitcoin exposure products are expanding, but the specific transfer paths of funds between different channels remain to be clarified by subsequent data.
Dominance falls below 60%: altcoin market capitalization surges but signals are mixed
As Bitcoin exposure products in traditional finance expand, the overall market capitalization structure has shown a significant rebalancing. According to AiCoin data, Bitcoin's dominance is currently about 58.5%, having fallen below the 60% psychological level often seen as an indicator of whether funds are significantly diverging. In the context of a total crypto market capitalization of approximately $3 trillion, the total market capitalization of altcoins, excluding Bitcoin, is currently in the range of approximately $1.17 trillion to $1.19 trillion, reflecting a phase growth of about 33% from around $880 billion in mid-August, providing intuitive material for the discussion of whether "altcoin season has begun." However, mere expansion of market capitalization is insufficient to define the nature and sustainability of the rotation.
More controversially, different metrics have shown disagreement over the interpretation of the "altcoin cycle." The Glassnode altcoin cycle signal rose to 81.25 (on a scale of 0–100) on September 22, which historically places it at a high level, often viewed as a sign that altcoin assets are entering a relatively active phase. However, during the same period, the altcoin season index is only about 45, significantly lower than the cycle signal, indicating that the two methodologies have not reached a consensus on whether the current situation constitutes a typical "altcoin season." Given that the specific statistical definitions and cutoff times for the aforementioned market capitalization and indicators have not been fully disclosed, this contradiction requires cautious interpretation: with Bitcoin's price having risen from approximately $70,000 in late August to the current approximately $84,000 while still occupying the narrative's main line, whether altcoins can transition from passive following to becoming the leading sector in the next phase remains an open question relying on subsequent on-chain and market capitalization data for verification.
MVRV and betting contracts resonate: the market recognizes the bull but expectations are heating up
From the perspective of on-chain cycles, Bitcoin has been “stamped” as a bull market by some indicators. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. cites Glassnode data indicating that the adjusted MVRV 30-day/365-day moving average ratio exceeded the 1.0 baseline on September 20, 2026, with Bitcoin's price on that day being approximately $80,691, which is generally regarded as a signal of transitioning from "early bull market" to "bull market stage." Earlier, on August 20, this ratio had already surpassed the 365-day moving average, with the price at about $71,255, followed by an approximate continuation of 31 days in the early bull market phase. According to AiCoin data, Bitcoin's current price is about $84,000, and in this process of rising from $70,000 to the $80,000 range, the two key breakthroughs of MVRV provide investors with a rough framework to locate cycles: the on-chain identified bull market has only run for a little over a month, and although the price has refreshed the range high, it is still relatively in a "young" stage in terms of time dimension.
In parallel with the on-chain cycle signals, short-term speculative sentiment is also heating up. The probability of the "BTC touching $85,000 in the remaining period of September" contract on Polymarket is currently about 70%, having increased by about 19 percentage points within 24 hours, suggesting that with only a limited number of trading days left until the end of the month, market participants are willing to pay a higher premium for short-term price ranges. It is important to emphasize that the MVRV indicator and betting contract data currently come from a single source, primarily reflecting the current participants' subjective beliefs about price paths rather than guaranteed predictions about future trends.
In the coming weeks: three clues to verify this wave of the market
According to AiCoin data, the net outflow of about $2.52 billion from the four major exchanges over three days is close in magnitude to the approximately $2.3858 billion net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs this week. Combined with Bitcoin's dominance of about 58.5%, the total market capitalization of altcoins has cumulatively increased by approximately 33% since mid-August, while the altcoin season index remains around 45. Coupled with an adjusted MVRV ratio that has surpassed 1.0 and the approximately 70% betting probability for the "September reaching $85,000" contract on Polymarket, the current situation resembles a bull market stage widely recognized but still uncertain in its path. In the coming weeks, the first key clue will be whether the fund data from exchanges and ETFs continues to align: if net outflows and inflows continue simultaneously, it may indicate a reallocation of on-chain chips to custodial products, while any divergence requires caution regarding local sentiment reversals. The second clue concerns the evolution of Bitcoin's dominance and altcoin indicators; if the dominance consolidates at a high while the altcoin season index and Glassnode altcoin cycle signals continue to diverge, it suggests that funds are still tentatively rotating. The third clue comes from the expansion speed of traditional financial products—Strive's newly launched T-Strive Digital Credit Preferred Income ETF and Entropy's acquisition of Pearl Code at approximately $45,000 with plans to launch perpetual contracts—serve more as signals of ecological heat, and the specific launch time and subsequent performance of Entropy have not been confirmed, allowing it to serve as an auxiliary dimension for observing risk preferences. These three sets of variables will collectively outline whether this wave of the market is completing a repricing of the fund structure or moving toward a more comprehensive bull market.
Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
AiCoin exclusive Hyperliquid benefit: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin exclusive Aster benefit: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
