On September 26, 2026, Jurrien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, posted on X platform account @TimmerFidelity, once again laying out his long-term pricing framework for Bitcoin in front of the public. As a macro strategy leader with considerable influence in the traditional financial sector, he did not remain in emotional bullish or bearish judgments but emphasized a key premise: under the backdrop of Bitcoin holding around the $60,000 level, he believes that a new cyclical bull market has begun to unfold. More controversially, he provided a numerical anchor—based on his personal power-law model, Timmer believes that by 2029, the Bitcoin price "could be around $300,000." In his description, this power-law model is a long-term valuation tool that links time with price, used to locate the current cyclical phase and extrapolate potential long-term trends. It is important to clarify that this is still Timmer's personal view as a macro analyst, and not Fidelity Investments' official stance or investment advice, but the combination of the "60,000 defense line" and "300,000 target price for 2029" was quickly reported by several Chinese media outlets such as PANews, Odaily Planet Daily, and BlockBeats, amplifying the valuation perspective of this traditional asset management executive in the Chinese market and pushing the discussion about Bitcoin’s cycles and pricing frameworks to a new level.

60,000 Defense Line and Cycle Turning Point: Timmer's Curve Perspective

In this round of discussions, Timmer marked about $60,000 as the "key defense line" for Bitcoin's current market. In his public statement on September 26, he mentioned that Bitcoin being able to "hold" this level was one of the preconditions he determined for the unfolding of a new cyclical bull market: as long as the price continues to operate along the power-law curve he defined, without significantly breaking below this time-price trajectory, the new cycle is seen as operating on track. This view is essentially a curve perspective—he first draws a long-term power-law curve and then uses whether the current price fits the curve to judge if the turning point has emerged.

The power-law model that Timmer refers to is defined by him as "a long-term valuation framework that associates Bitcoin's price with time," aiming to string together various price cycles with a continuous timeline, from the early high-volatility period to today's high market capitalization phase, and then locate "which cyclical phase we are in" based on the current position on this curve. Existing materials do not disclose the specific mathematical form of this curve, nor do they provide on-chain indicators or transaction data to prove the historical support strength of $60,000, thus the external understanding of the significance of this defense line relies solely on his words and illustrations. For readers, this feels more like a model perspective provided by a traditional asset management macro executive rather than an already market-validated established fact, and the internal market's divergence about whether Bitcoin truly exited the last bear market and whether $60,000 is the cyclical turning point continues.

The Story of the Power-Law Curve Pointing to 300,000 by 2029

In the post on September 26, 2026, Timmer did not stop at the judgement of "holding $60,000;" he directly extended his power-law model to the next complete cycle: if Bitcoin continues to evolve along this power-law trajectory he depicted, by 2029, the model predicts a price roughly in the target range of about $300,000. This is the only specific number he publicly shared, and it is also the conclusion of his deliberately emphasized "long-term valuation model"—a tool that binds price with time to observe which cyclical phase Bitcoin might be in and where potential long-term trends may point, rather than helping traders decide whether to increase their positions today.

For readers and market participants, such a power-law curve that spans multiple bull and bear cycles naturally serves as a narrative vehicle: Bitcoin continually expands its use cases and cognitive boundaries on the timeline, with network effects and adoption paths compressed into an upward mathematical storyline, ultimately converging visually into the "2029 300,000" visionary coordinate. However, a clear gap must be left between narrative and numbers—Timmer himself presents it merely as a model extrapolation scenario, not a guaranteed prediction for future prices, nor an official commitment or investment advice from Fidelity Investments. Regarding any imagination based on this curve, a reasonable attitude is to view it as a probability perspective from a traditional asset management macro executive, rather than a definitive path already inscribed in reality.

Fidelity's Macro Perspective: Personal Judgment or Institutional Signal

Because Timmer's job title is "Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments," any public statement he makes will be instinctively interpreted by the market as an important voice from the traditional financial system. Fidelity Investments, as a major global asset management institution, inherently carries the risk preferences and asset allocation logic of mainstream capital. When such an institution's macro head discusses "new cyclical bull market" and "model result of around $300,000 for 2029" under the context of Bitcoin holding approximately $60,000, the weight of the information in the communication chain will naturally be amplified.

However, existing materials clearly show that this statement took place on his personal X account @TimmerFidelity, and multiple media have classified it as "the personal judgment of the Global Macro Director based on power-law models," rather than an official announcement or strategy document from Fidelity Investments. In factual terms, we have no evidence to upgrade this power-law curve to an institutional-level investment recommendation; it is closer to a personal perspective given by an executive in traditional asset management regarding Bitcoin's position in the long-term valuation framework. For the market, the influence may not lie in "how Fidelity will allocate Bitcoin," but rather in: Bitcoin has already been included in the asset allocation coordinate system publicly discussed by the macro directors of such large institutions, which itself has changed many people's understanding of its long-term role.

The Appeal of the Power-Law Model and Implied Risks

Because it is placed in the context of macro asset allocation, the power-law framework that Timmer speaks of easily attracts attention: it uses a mathematically increasing relationship over time to compress Bitcoin's long-term upward trend and periodic corrections into a visual trajectory, with peaks and troughs "drawn" within the same coordinate system. For many investors, this approach lowers the threshold for understanding—so long as the price roughly runs along that curve and its upper and lower "bandwidth," it seems to validate that the long-term logic remains effective, and the new cyclical phase has a referential rhythm. In a market where narratives continually change, a seemingly solid time-price trajectory itself possesses an emotional soothing function, which is one of the reasons the power-law model is repeatedly discussed in the Bitcoin circle.

However, it must also be recognized that the weaknesses of such models are very clear. Existing public information only confirms that Timmer uses a "power-law framework" without disclosing any specific structure or parameter details, which means that the external community cannot replicate the entire path by which he reached the conclusion of about $300,000, nor can there be an independent verification of the model's robustness. Methodologically, power-law models heavily rely on fitting historical price and time without explicitly incorporating factors such as future regulatory policy changes, shifts in the global macro environment, the evolution of underlying technology, and fluctuations in actual use demand into the equation; this implies that once these variables experience shocks outside historical experience, the curve could significantly deviate or even fail completely. According to AiCoin data, current facts do not support upgrading any single power-law judgment to a definitive conclusion about capital behavior or future volatility; a more reasonable practice for readers is to view it as a reference coordinate among many analytical tools, rather than the singular price guide, and certainly not to extrapolate a necessarily realized asset return path based on it.

From the Vision of 300,000 Back to the Present: What Should We Look At?

Overall, Timmer's power-law model and the number of "300,000 by 2029" resemble more of a long-term storyline he has crafted for Bitcoin rather than a short-term operational manual for the market to copy. He defines the current phase on X as "a new cyclical bull market is unfolding," but this judgment is based on the personal power-law framework he uses, pointing to a medium to long-term dimension of at least several years, and is not aligned with daily price fluctuations. According to AiCoin data, there is currently a lack of sufficiently detailed on-chain indicators or transaction data to directly and systematically quantify this model in relation, which means that the so-called "60,000 defense line + 300,000 target for 2029" after being referenced by multiple media is more a narrative reference widely discussed rather than a conclusion fully validated by on-chain facts. What is truly worth tracking continuously is whether Bitcoin can hold key price ranges including around $60,000 in future phases, whether traditional institutions' attitudes towards asset allocation and research perspectives continue to change, and whether the overall macro environment still provides sufficient accommodation space for such high-volatility assets. For individual investors, what is more important is not to bet on a specific number, but rather to assess their own risk tolerance and time perspective based on the understanding of such long-cycle predictive assumptions, treating Timmer's judgments as one piece of the puzzle among many analytical tools, rather than the only answer to follow blindly.

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