Bitcoin is re-entering a bull market cycle. Previously, Bitcoin reached the downside target area of this bear market adjustment and confirmed the cycle bottom after stabilizing at $62,900. Subsequently, the price broke above the 21-week moving average at $69,272, further confirming the end of the bear market; Bitcoin is currently around $84,000—$86,000, not only breaking through the May 2026 high but also re-establishing itself above the 1-year moving average, with monthly cycle indicators further confirming the end of the bear market.

Meanwhile, US federal debt has reached approximately $40.1 trillion. By overlaying Bitcoin prices with US federal debt, the implied fair value of Bitcoin is currently about $105,000. As the debt continues to expand, this trend will still provide long-term structural support for Bitcoin. However, the dollar has recently strengthened, and with Bitcoin in a short-term overbought state, prices may still experience a phase of consolidation.

Bear Market Confirmed Ended: Bitcoin Re-establishes Above Market Average Cost

This round of price increase was initially driven by short covering, and after Bitcoin re-established itself above $70,000, the first wave of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) emotions began to emerge. Following this, the price successively broke through the March 2024 high of $73,084, resistance created by the April 2025 tariff announcement, and the May 2026 high, re-establishing itself above the 1-year moving average. Bitcoin has now reclaimed the major resistance area since March 2024, while operating above the 1-year moving average, increasing the probability of an effective breakout.

More importantly, Bitcoin has re-established itself above the average cost of all holders—the True Market Mean, which is currently about $76,897. As the price operates in the $84,000—$86,000 range, the entire market has returned to a profit state. Historical experience shows that traders in a loss state are often likely to continue to close positions and increase selling pressure; now that the entire market has returned above the average cost, FOMO begins to return, and traders' willingness to increase leverage also rises.

Meanwhile, after US federal debt broke $40 trillion, Bitcoin also broke through the downward trend line since the October 2025 high. Based on the current US federal debt of about $40.1 trillion, the implied fair value of Bitcoin is about $105,000. Although prices may repeatedly experience overvaluation and undervaluation around this trend center, the continued expansion of debt will still provide long-term structural support for Bitcoin.

Is $142,000 Just a Top Threshold? This Cycle's Peak Might Point to $185,000—$215,000

From the perspective of the market average holding cost, historical experience shows that a Bitcoin bull market typically doesn't peak until the premium relative to the true market mean reaches at least 85%. Based on the current true market mean of $76,897, this corresponds to a price of about $142,260. However, this level is not the final peak but rather the minimum trigger threshold for the bull market to start topping out. As Bitcoin rises and capital turnover increases, new buyers entering at higher price levels will also push the market average holding cost higher, so the peak of this bull market should be above $142,260.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin first reached an 85% premium around $73,000 in March 2024, and then ultimately rose to $126,000, corresponding to a multiple of about 1.7 times. However, the premium multiple is compressing round by round. If this round further drops to 1.3—1.5 times and is estimated based on around $142,000, the corresponding potential top range is about $185,000—$215,000.

However, this does not mean Bitcoin will quickly rise to around $200,000 in the short term. In the last cycle, it took about 19 months from the first appearance of the 85% premium signal to the final peak, and the true market mean requires time to catch up with the price. Thus, a top around $200,000 is more likely to be an event in 2028—2029 rather than a near-term target.

Overall, Bitcoin has re-established itself above the 21-week and 1-year moving averages, creating higher highs, and pulling the entire market back above the average cost, with monthly cycle indicators also confirming that the bear market has ended. In the short term, the strong dollar and overbought state may lead to phase consolidation; from a longer-term perspective, the fair value given by the US debt model is $105,000, and the cycle minimum target corresponding to the true market mean framework is $142,260, with the eventual peak likely falling in the $185,000—$215,000 range.

However, this top is still some distance away in both time and space. The last round took about 19 months from the appearance of the 85% premium signal to the final peak, so the cycle top around $200,000 in this round is more likely to appear in 2028—2029 rather than being a target that can be reached soon.

The above opinions are partly from BIT on Target, contact us for the full report on BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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