2026-09-27 ｜ In-depth interpretation ｜ Written by: Smoke and Rain
The weekend market is subdued, with ETH hovering around 2700 and BTC around 84,000. But today, there is an on-chain data point that is more noteworthy than the market itself: 87% of altcoins on Binance have crossed the 200-day moving average.
What does this number mean? In August, 80% of altcoins were still below the 200-day moving average. In just a month, the figure rose from 20% to 87%. CryptoQuant reports that since June, the total market capitalization of altcoins, including ETH, has attracted a cumulative inflow of $371 billion, an increase of about 45%.
It sounds like good news. However, at the same time, a dangerous signal has appeared on-chain. Today, I will explain it to you.
01 First, let's look at a shocking statistic: 87% of altcoins have crossed the 200-day moving average.
What is the 200-day moving average? Why is this number important?
The 200-day moving average is the average closing price over the past 200 days. In technical analysis, it is considered a "bull-bear dividing line." If the price is above the 200-day moving average, it indicates a long-term upward trend; if it is below, it indicates a long-term downward trend.
Data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost:
87% of altcoins on Binance have crossed the 200-day moving average;
In August, this ratio was 20%—meaning 80% of altcoins were still below the moving average;
In a month's time, the figure soared from 20% to 87%.
What does this indicate? In the past month, nearly all altcoins have been rising. No matter what you bought, as long as it is an altcoin, it has gone up. This is a characteristic of a typical mid-bull market—BTC rises first, igniting market sentiment, and then funds start pouring into all altcoins.
Historically, when this ratio exceeds 80%, what does it mean? It means most of the coins that can rise have already surged. The subsequent increases will rely on genuine value—not every little altcoin will rise at this stage.
02 $371 billion influx—what does this figure mean?
Next, let's look at the second number: $371 billion.
Since June 2026, the total market capitalization of altcoins, including ETH, has attracted a cumulative inflow of $371 billion, an increase of about 45%.
What does $371 billion represent? The total market capitalization of the entire crypto market is currently about $2.85 trillion. In three months, the altcoin sector has seen an influx of $371 billion—equivalent to 13% of the total market capitalization. This is a significant figure.
Let’s add some exchange data:
The average weekly recharge of altcoins on Binance exceeds 22,700 transactions;
Coinbase has seen over 8,300 altcoin deposits;
Other exchanges cumulatively have about 32,000 transactions.
This recharge volume is the highest level since October 2025. What does this mean? It means retail investors are frantically recharging altcoins on exchanges, preparing to sell.
You might be worried hearing this—if retail investors are recharging to sell, does that mean a collapse is coming? Don’t panic yet; the next signal is the key.
03 However, a dangerous signal has appeared on-chain: bearish RSI divergence
Darkfrost stated something worth noting:
"The RSI of Total2 has recently shown bearish divergence, indicating that the upward momentum in the altcoin market may be weakening."
What is bearish RSI divergence? Let me teach you a highly practical concept in technical analysis.
RSI is an indicator that ranges from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating stronger upward momentum. Under normal circumstances, as the price rises, the RSI also rises. But if the price hits a new high while the RSI does not—this is called "bearish divergence."
What does this mean? It means that while the price continues to rise, the momentum for the increase is not as strong as before. It’s like a person running faster, but their heartbeat can’t keep up. In the short term, there may still be a sprint, but it will soon slow down.
The current situation is: altcoin prices are still rising, with 87% above the 200-day moving average, and $371 billion pouring in. However, the RSI has begun to level off or even decline. This indicates that the upward momentum is weakening—not an immediate drop, but there isn’t much strength left for further surges.
04 The fear and greed index has dropped from 74 to 70—sentiment is cooling
Now, let’s add another data point: the fear and greed index.
Yesterday it was 74, today it’s 70. It has taken a step down from the upper bound of the "greed" range. It’s still in the greed zone, but not as greedy as before.
This data aligns with the RSI divergence: prices are still high, but the excitement among people is not as intense. Retail investors are still recharging their coins, but they are not experiencing FOMO like before.
Historically, when the fear and greed index declines from above 70, what typically happens? It usually doesn’t crash immediately; instead, it enters a period of consolidation. People start selecting coins—previously, everything was rising, but now they must choose the ones that truly have value.
This is why you see ENA rising 15%, SOL rising 1.38%, while DOGE drops 7% and ZEC drops 8%. Funds are shifting from junk altcoins to real altcoins.
05 Fidelity predicts BTC bull market until 2029 at $300,000—but what about the short term?
There was also a big news over the weekend: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer stated that a new round of the Bitcoin bull market has begun, with a target price of $300,000 by 2029.
What does $300,000 represent? Currently, BTC is at 84,000, meaning it would need to rise 3.5 times by 2029. This target is quite bold.
But note that Fidelity is talking about 2029, not next week. Long-term outlook is positive, but it doesn’t mean there won’t be a short-term correction.
Simultaneously, macroeconomic pressure is still present:
The 10-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.23%, the highest since 2007;
Trump's administration is promoting an overseas stablecoin program, and Tether holds $114.96 billion in US debt;
In the last 24 hours, 10,800 BTC have left exchanges, worth $1.083 billion—smart money is still buying.
To summarize: Long-term outlook is positive, but macroeconomic pressures remain, and altcoins have risen too quickly and need a breather.
06 My judgment: Altcoins need a breather, but the bull market is not over
Putting all the clues together:
On the data front: 87% of altcoins have crossed the 200-day moving average; $371 billion influx—too much growth;
On the signal front: Bearish RSI divergence; fear and greed index dropped from 74 to 70—momentum weakening;
On the funding front: Retail investors are recharging to sell, but BTC is still flowing out of exchanges—smart money is accumulating BTC;
On the long-term front: Fidelity sees $300,000 in 2029; Tether holds $114.9 billion in US debt—long-term logic remains intact.
My judgment is straightforward: Altcoins need a breather, but the bull market is not over.
Why? Three reasons:
First, bearish RSI divergence does not mean an immediate drop. Bearish divergence can persist for several weeks, with prices still slowly rising, just at a slower pace. What to really watch for is a significant drop in volume following the RSI divergence—that would indicate a top.
Second, 87% above the 200-day moving average is a mid-term positive signal, not a short-term peak. This data indicates that the trend has shifted to bullish. Once a trend is established, it won’t reverse immediately due to a divergence.
Third, BTC is still flowing out of exchanges. Smart money is buying BTC at 84,000, not 87,000. They are not foolish—if there were to be a collapse, they would not be buying.
One last thing: At this stage, it’s most unwise to chase those junk altcoins that have already surged several times. With 87% above the 200-day moving average, what will rise next are the ones with real value, not just any random coins.
Take a good rest this weekend. Next week, Trump will launch America.gov, with Jensen Huang and Musk attending—if the AI narrative takes off, the next wave could be AI concepts. SafeX;Annxvvc
The content above is based on logical deductions from publicly available market data and information, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and leverage increases risks; please assess rationally and be aware of risks.
If you find this useful, please like, share, and support it, and follow Smoke and Rain for daily straightforward market analyses. SafeX;Annxvvc
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