Today is Sunday, and it is also akey node for the weekly K-line closing. During the day, the liquidity in the Asian market is relatively limited, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate slightly around key positions, but as the weekly close approaches, the competition between bulls and bears may intensify in the evening.

Currently, market sentiment remains somewhat heated, with the fear and greed index in the "greed" zone, and bullish sentiment slightly prevailing. However, there is still significant pressure in the macro environment: U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and concerns about continued tightening of monetary policy have not disappeared.

Interestingly, BTC has shown strong resilience despite the macro headwinds.

This indicates that the current market is still a very typical contradictory structure:

Macro pressure restricts the upside, while funds' support limits the depth of the decline; the daily momentum is insufficient, but the cycles below 12 hours are persistently recovering.

Therefore, today is not suitable for chasing long positions on slow rises, nor is it suitable for directly chasing short positions near key support. What is truly worthy of attention is how the weekly K-line will ultimately close and whether there will be a breakout in volume in the evening.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Viewpoint: Focus on shorts, with some support for longs, the area around 82800 becomes an important observation point for the short term.

BTC has quickly retraced from around 87400 and is currently consolidating around the 84000 area.

The previous large-scale liquidation of longs has released some high-level leverage risks, and the funding rate has returned to a relatively neutral level, with market congestion significantly reduced compared to its peak.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour RSI has noticeably fallen from the previously overbought zone, indicating that short-term upward momentum has cooled; however, the price is still operating close to the EMA30, and the mid-term upward structure has not been fundamentally damaged.

What is truly noteworthy is the differentiation of cycles:

The daily upward momentum is insufficient, but multiple cycles below 12 hours are continuously recovering.

If today's pullback can hold around 82800, and then the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour cycles strengthen simultaneously, there may be a need to guard against a12-hour long resonance, retesting the 84680—84948 or even 86000 areas.

However, from a larger cycle perspective, the daily still has adjustment demands. Therefore, even if there is a rise next week, one must guard against it becoming a high short window at the daily level after the rise.

Currently, it is still managed according to high-level consolidation:

Look for repairs if support holds, look for pullbacks if pressure holds; change the view on fluctuations only after a strong breakout.

Support: 83600-84000, 83200, 82600
Pressure: 84680-84948, 86000-86500

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

Viewpoint: Fluctuation and repair, focus on shorts, do not chase shorts at the current position.

ETH also needs to distinguish between two concepts: Repair does not equal reversal.

The short cycles already have certain rebound conditions, but the adjustments on the 12-hour, daily, and even weekly levels have not completely ended, so even if there is a continued slow rise during the weekend, it is still more appropriate to understand it as a technical repair after a decline.

The previous breakthrough around 2661 indicates some improvement in the short-term structure. However, the key area that truly determines whether ETH can reopen the upward space is still at a higher position, around 2800 is the major pressure point worth closely observing.

The derivatives market currently has a relatively positive bullish sentiment, but it has not yet reached an extreme overcrowded level; therefore, it is not without conditions to continue repairing upward.

However, the 12-hour MACD has formed a death cross, and risks of a larger cycle adjustment still exist.

So the most reasonable pace right now remains:

Pull back to 2650—2660 for support observation; rebound to 2700—2750 to observe pressure; consider the trend continuation only after a true breakout beyond higher pressure.

Support: 2650-2660, 2624
Pressure: 2700-2720, 2742, 2750

Tencent Meeting 24-hour live broadcast room: 789-240-2938

Aicoin group chat search for Huiying community or click the group link to join: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=onjrNpKn6

This article is published by 【Huiying Community】 and reflects only personal opinions. Due to delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
If you need to obtain more timely daily market analysis and strategy ideas, feel free to add Safew's contact information or add three lines: HYSQks888, to enter the group for free learning.
15 professional analysts in the community monitor the market live all day. Here, you can learn technical analysis methods in practical situations and systematically understand the strategies for solving positions and risk control systems.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。