After discussing recent trends, many friends have started asking about points. Those who are proficient in technical analysis are also firmly believing in a bullish trend; on this point, Lao Cui agrees, as the technical perspective shows no signs of a bearish trend. Strictly speaking, the current downward force is not deep; in the chart, the days of August 19, 20, and 21 changed the previous bearish trend, and with the formation of a second wave pattern on September 18 and 21, if a strong spike appears afterwards, it would indicate a trend towards a third wave. From the graphical perspective, the current dip is more of a high rebound pattern, presenting a trend of inducement to shorts. Looking only at the daily chart, there is no problem for everyone to go long. However, everyone should consider the monthly chart; this year's high point was born on January 14 at 97932, and the lowest point was born on July 1 at 57758. Based on the month, the current trend can only be seen as recovering previous losses. For a longer perspective, this wave of decline should have started from the new high of 126208 set on October 6 last year, and we are still in a recovery phase.

According to the analysis of technical patterns, we must adhere to the authenticity of the data, because all news may be deceptive, but numbers will not. If one wants to establish a bearish trend from a technical perspective, a daily candlestick must break through the 80,000 mark directly, disrupting the third wave pattern; Lao Cui’s personal estimation will not be far off. Coupled with news, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in October 2026 will be held from October 27 to 28, with the resolution announced on October 29. The meeting time in Eastern US time is 14:00, which is 02:00 Beijing time the next day. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October is 64.8%, and the market will move out before this. In a typical interest rate hike cycle, calculated on an annual basis, it usually takes at least 4-5 months for the anticipated peak of a bearish trend to be reached, after which speculation will be calculated based on expectations of rate cuts. The core issue remains whether a consensus can be reached with Iran, and it is crucial that no country or institution imposes tolls on international waterways.

Lao Cui summarizes: Based on short-term daily line judgments, the next round of market movements will likely occur around the holiday week, and it will not be later than next week. In Lao Cui’s estimations, it is certain that the 80,000 mark will be breached within half a month; users seeking stability must wait for the first successful dip before entering the market. This means that after a bearish candle forms, the recovery usually occurs between the second and third days. Judging by the point levels, it will be a recovery after breaking the 80,000 level. The area around 80,000 is a very good level. Once the first dip is formed, then the subsequent cyclical bearish trend can arrive, and the verification period will not be too long; everyone can wait and see. For spot users who want to enter the market, just follow the entire cycle; if there is a rate hike in September and continues in October, then the transmission timeline will form lower positions this year. At the same time, the first half of next year will likely belong to the rate hike cycle. For the mid-term, from the end of October to mid-December, and in the long run, before the interest rate meeting in June next year, there is potential for forming even lower positions. This year’s upper limit is not high; the new high position at 97932, and even the mid-term pressure at 92000 is somewhat weak. It depends on whether a false breakout can be formed. Spot users can completely avoid rushing; there is still a long time left. If there are spot users in the market, consider making a short position!

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