The means of capital are truly unchanging over the years; the last day of the holiday is also the day of reaping. Yesterday, Bitcoin plummeted directly from 85,559 to 82,706. Considering the high point on October 5th, it was 86,976, and throughout the holiday, it did not break through the strong resistance at 87,000, with other cryptocurrencies following the trend of the market. This has forced Old Cui to return to work; this year's holiday is officially over, back to our market. The previous forecasts about the holiday market can be considered quite perfect, and Old Cui's own estimation was also that there would be a downturn in the last two days. This year's situation will depend on whether it can stabilize at the critical level of 84,000. This week's observation point is the strength of the recovery at 85,000. Once it fails, if the bulls want to fight back, they can only wait for the interest rate meeting in October. Not raising interest rates in October can be considered a positive, but it is already within the expected observations. Therefore, the core of the meeting will depend on Walsh's speech. If he continues to joke and play Taiji, the market may stabilize a bit, but I fear he might suddenly say that the Fed will still refer to 2% inflation, and then the bulls this year will likely be completely over.

Do not be misled by the short-term trends; the control in the short term is definitely stronger, and this holds true in any financial market; it is even more so in the cryptocurrency circle, primarily because of the lack of effective regulation, making capital control even more apparent. U.S. inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, exceeding expectations, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached a new high of 5.70% since 2002. If this expected inflation prediction is correct, doubts about the interest rate hike cycle can be directly dispelled. In future investment planning, the interest rate hike cycle must be considered. To define the situation of the interest rate hike cycle, if everyone wants to go long, they must estimate the previous market bit by bit. The key is that this group of determined bulls still need to convince themselves. The only thing that can save the 3.9% inflation expectation is if Walsh comes out and tells everyone there was a statistical error, a serious mistake that requires him to take responsibility and resign. Everyone should observe how probable this is.

Old Cui summarizes: In the past two days, Old Cui has discussed trends with many analysts, especially bullish analysts, who generally lean towards the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency circle as support; the bullish evidence cited is mainly based on the imminent clear legislation. At the same time, these colleagues have a common flaw in that they automatically ignore the concept of the interest rate hike cycle, and the most fatal point is that Old Cui throws out the question: where does the bull market come from if there is an interest rate hike cycle? This question cannot be answered. Old Cui says this not to prove he is better than anyone else, but to hope that everyone can understand the harmful effects of interest rate hikes. Additionally, most friends working with exchange rates, who have a certain financial background, will believe that the U.S. has already experienced dollar devaluation, and funds will flow back to their domestic market. Observers should take careful note. Almost all fiat currencies can reduce their exchange rates; the Japanese yen, euro, and South Korean won have all depreciated dramatically. Compared to this, it is even lower than the strategies on the eve of dollar devaluation.

This directly denies that the U.S.'s weak dollar strategy has failed. Many friends will ask, clearly the market was doing well before, why does everyone feel there's no money? Do not overlook the fact that the U.S. stock market has grown, with two companies this year reaching a market value of 500 billion. Isn't this capital absorbing? With the 30 trillion in the cryptocurrency circle, the total amount reaches 130 trillion. In terms of data, the U.S. definitely has the upper hand, and the financial system still operates around it. This cannot be discussed in too much detail; Old Cui can only say that if you can confirm this direction, the future of the cryptocurrency circle will be extremely bright. As long as it is a cryptocurrency recognized by the U.S., at least it will start from doubling or tripling. This is historically inevitable in the big direction. The reason Old Cui is bearish at the mid-line level is simply because the probability of interest rate hikes is increasing, and the U.S. will certainly prioritize the stock market. Their foundation lies in finance. The cryptocurrency circle can be given up at the mid-line level; the current market has already provided the answer. For users looking to go long, it is best to wait until this wave is over to make plans; currently, it is the bear market's territory. In a downward trend, do not think about bottom-fishing; wait until it rebounds before making a decision! Those who do not understand about layouts can directly ask Old Cui!

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