In October, the bears finally started to fight back. Yesterday, both BTC and ETH experienced a significant drop, with over $400 million in leveraged long positions getting liquidated, amplifying the short-term selling pressure. However, from a structural perspective, BTC has not fully exited the previous large fluctuation range, while ETH, although it broke down first, showed a strong recovery today driven by the strengthening of the ETH/BTC exchange rate.

It needs to be made clear: after yesterday's large drop, today's rise is primarily defined as a repair, not a reversal.

The macro environment remains bearish. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, and the market still needs to digest the subsequent tightening expectations; U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, and with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz heating up, risk assets are under overall pressure.

However, yesterday's large drop has already released some panic emotions in advance, and the short cycle has entered a repair phase after being oversold. Therefore, today is not suitable for continuing to chase shorts at low levels; it is more worth waiting for a rebound to enter the pressure zone after 1-hour or 2-hour subsequent movements to find high short opportunities.

The core rhythm is:

First repair, then look for shorts; do not chase at low levels, wait for pressure at high levels.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Viewpoint: first long, then short; after the rebound repair, still prefer high shorts.

Although BTC dropped significantly yesterday, the overall extent remains within a controllable range, and the real daily core support has not been fully tested, which leaves room for continued short-term repair.

Since September 21, BTC has repeatedly forged near 87570 but has not been able to break through effectively, indicating that the selling pressure in this area is very real.

Currently, BTC is still operating within the large range of 82500—87500, which can further be divided:

Lower range: 82500—85500
Upper range: 85500—87500

After yesterday's drop, it re-entered the lower range, so today we first observe the range of 84500—85000 for rebounds. If trading volume cannot continue to expand after repairing to this area, it remains a relatively ideal pressure observation area.

To truly turn stronger again, it needs to stabilize above 85500 or even 86500; otherwise, the issues of daily top dullness and momentum decay still exist.

Therefore:

Do not chase shorts around 82500—83000;
Observe high shorts at 84500—85000;
If 85500 cannot be reclaimed, continue to treat it as weak repair.

Support: 82500-83000, 81500-82000
Pressure: 84500-85000, 85500, 86500

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

Viewpoint: first repair, then go short; short-term strength does not equal a daily reversal.

ETH broke down first yesterday, and today, although it shows a clear rebound boosted by the strengthening ETH/BTC exchange rate, the large drop structure from yesterday still exists, so it is currently more appropriate to define it as a technical repair after the breakdown.

Technically, several weak signals have appeared:

The price has fallen below the key position near the 20-day moving average, and the daily RSI has retreated to a neutral weak area; in the 4-hour timeframe, it briefly fell below the lower Bollinger band, indicating that short-term selling pressure still exists.

More notably, the support around 2644 has turned into pressure.

Therefore, the rebound today focuses on observing the 2623—2644 area. If the price hits this range and starts to shrink in volume and stagnates, we still need to be wary of bearish forces striking again.

Additionally, retail long positions are still very crowded. Under the condition that the trend has already broken, these leveraged longs may instead become fuel for the next round of selling.

The important defense line below is 2564; if this is lost again, attention should be paid to the support of the 2500—2530 area.

Support: 2564, 2500-2530
Pressure: 2623-2644, 2697

Tencent Meeting 24-hour live broadcast room: 789-240-2938

Aicoin group chat search for HiuYing Community or click the group link to join: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=onjrNpKn6

This article is published by 【HuiYing Community】 and only represents personal views. Due to the delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.

If you need to obtain more timely daily market analysis and strategy ideas, feel free to add Safew's contact information, or add three lines: HYSQks888 for free group learning.

There are 15 professional analysts in the community, monitoring the market live throughout the day. Here you can not only learn the technical analysis methods in practical operation but also systematically understand the ideas for resolving positions and risk control systems.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。