In September, the cryptocurrency market rose by about 11%, and Bitcoin also showed a somewhat positive technical signal.
Many people might react with: Is the market going to rise again? If I don’t hop on now, will I miss out?
Don’t rush in just yet.
The rise in September has indeed rekindled market sentiment. But in October, what truly needs attention are the three pitfalls that are easy to fall into.
01｜Only Seeing “Rise,” Not Why Funds Are Coming In
This wave of increase in September does have funds entering the market.
The spot Bitcoin ETF has continuously attracted fund inflows, and the market’s total market capitalization has returned to a higher position.
However, for newcomers, there is an important distinction:
Funds entering the market does not mean that funds will continuously chase higher prices.
If funds are gradually buying in as prices decline, they are more likely seeking allocation opportunities.
This type of funding can provide support to the market, but it does not mean that every position is worth chasing.
So seeing an 11% rise in September, instead of immediately thinking “how much higher can it go,” you might first ask:
Is there new funding continuously taking over this rise?
If it’s just a sudden surge in sentiment, those who chase at high positions might actually find it more difficult.
02｜Seeing a Golden Cross and Thinking “It’s Safe Now”
On September 8, Bitcoin displayed a somewhat positive technical signal: the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, commonly referred to as a “golden cross.”
Many newcomers see the terms “golden cross” and may immediately think: Does this mean it’s going to rise?
Indeed, a golden cross is typically viewed as a signal of a stronger medium to long-term trend.
But there is a particularly easy-to-overlook issue: A golden cross is not a guarantee of price increase.
It can only indicate that price performance has started to improve over a certain period.
However, it cannot tell you:
- BTC is definitely going to rise next
- It won’t suddenly drop
- Whether now is the best buying point
Moreover, after this golden cross, the macro environment has not suddenly become easy.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve actually raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%.
Thus, when looking at BTC in October, don’t just focus on the golden cross on the candlestick chart.
Technical signals and macro environment should be viewed together.
03｜Completely Ignoring Interest Rates, Only Focusing on Coin Prices
This point is especially important for newcomers.
Recently, the market has been highly sensitive to U.S. interest rates and government bond yields.
The reason is actually not complicated.
When U.S. government bond yields continue to rise, the appeal of holding low-risk U.S. dollar assets increases, and high-volatility assets may come under pressure.
Conversely, if yields stabilize or even decline, risk assets typically gain more breathing space.
And after the Fed’s rate hike in September, this variable deserves more attention.
The most recently released meeting minutes showed that Fed officials still have concerns about inflation, with most officials believing there could be another rate hike this year.
Therefore, in October, rather than scrolling through dozens of messages about “how high BTC will rise,” it’s better to develop a habit:
Take a moment to look at the U.S. 10-year government bond yield.
You don’t have to learn all macro indicators right away.
Just knowing whether it is rising or falling is already much better than not looking at all.
So What Should Newcomers Do in October?
It doesn’t have to be overly complicated.
① Don’t Suddenly Increase Your Position Just Because of September’s Rise
The most common illusion after an increase is: “Everyone has made money, should I rush to buy too?”
If you weren’t involved before and still have no reason to suddenly go heavy just because of fear of missing out.
Wait until you understand before deciding to participate.
② Position Size is More Important Than Predictions
No one can guarantee that October will definitely rise, nor can anyone guarantee that it will definitely fall.
If you still can’t understand interest rates or ETF fund flows, keep your position size within a range you can handle.
Survive first, then discuss the next wave.
③ Start Learning to Look at Two Things
No need to learn dozens of indicators at once.
Newcomers can start with: BTC Price + U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield.
One looks at the market itself, while the other looks at the macro funding environment.
Slowly connecting these two aspects, you will find that many previously incomprehensible rises and falls will at least start to make sense.
To Put It Simply
The rise in September indicates that there are indeed funds and demand in the market.
But this does not mean that buying with your eyes closed in October will guarantee profit.
Especially for those just starting to engage with the crypto market, it’s easy to rush in when the market heats up and then panic sell at the first correction.
So what’s most worth doing now is not guessing how high BTC will rise next month.
First, learn how to observe the market, how to control your position, and how to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.
If you don’t have a trading account yet, you can also register for a Binance account to familiarize yourself with the app and basic features.
👉 Binance Registration Link:
https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=3
(Invitation Code: aicoin668, enjoy a 10% rebate)
Initially, it is advised to use a small amount of capital to get familiar with the operations and first set up basic safety verifications, rather than going all in right away.
There are always opportunities in the market; what truly matters is that, when the opportunity arises, you are still in the game.
Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
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Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and investment carries risks. This article is for market information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please participate rationally based on your situation and carefully control your position.
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