During the National Day holiday, did anyone make any trades? Did anyone manage to benefit from this pullback? Today's session will revolve around the title: first, we'll analyze the market movements during the National Day holiday, then discuss why I believe that smart money on-chain is shifting positions, and finally, I will show you a few real on-chain address cases. Everyone is welcome to participate in the live session, send memberships, and members in the live room also enjoy an exclusive 10% discount, which offers great value.

Market Divergence: Four Types of Assets Exhibit Completely Different Rhythms

First, let’s take a look at a few sets of contract data, separating crypto and non-crypto. On the crypto side, the current price of BTC is about 83,000, down 2.4% in the last 24 hours; ETH has fallen even more, nearly 4%.

On the other side, gold has hardly fallen, with minor fluctuations; the on-chain U.S. stock index has also seen little decline, with only slight adjustments over the past 24 hours. However, when viewed on a daily scale, from September 30th until now, it has actually risen by more than two percentage points against the trend. On the same day, the movement of crypto assets has clearly diverged from that of on-chain U.S. stocks and gold, with the difference being even more pronounced when switching to the daily cycle — among the four types of assets, U.S. stocks are performing the strongest.

Here, XYG100 refers to the on-chain U.S. stock index on Hyperliquid, benchmarked against the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, representing the price trend of on-chain U.S. stock assets.

Why is there such divergence? The core reason is the interest rate environment. Rates were just raised in September, and there's a pause in October, but the market expects another rate hike by the end of the year. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields remain high at 5.25 to 5.31, the highest in 24 years.

In a high-interest-rate environment, assets can be divided into two categories: one is stock assets with profit expectations, and the other is non-interest-bearing crypto and gold assets. With the same 100 dollars, you can buy government bonds and earn about 5% risk-free in a year; if you buy crypto, unless the price goes up, you will only have your principal after a year with no earnings. Therefore, high interest rates directly suppress non-interest-bearing assets.

Stocks are different; although they have no interest, they provide dividends and have profit expectations that enhance valuations. The strength of U.S. stocks during this period is primarily due to the launch of third-quarter reports, with earnings expectations for AI-related weighted stocks adjusted upward by nearly 30%, directly driving up valuations, resulting in a surge for major stocks like NVIDIA, Apple, and Google. However, it is important to note that this surge in earnings expectations is concentrated among large-cap AI-related companies, while small-cap stocks and non-AI related stocks see very limited gains. Thus, the strong performance of the index versus the relative weakness of crypto assets essentially reflects a shift of funds towards assets supported by profit.

Is Smart Money Shifting Positions? What Are the Criteria?

How did I arrive at the observation that "smart money is shifting positions"? My definition of shifting positions must satisfy three conditions: first, smart money first closes their crypto positions; second, they then open positions in other markets, such as on-chain U.S. stocks or gold; and finally, the interval between the two operations is very short, basically completed within the same day. Only if these three points are met can we clearly see a positional shift that reflects the true attitude of the funds.

Let’s take a look at a typical address. This address originally held about 380 BTC but did not wait to recover and directly cut its losses, losing about 1 million dollars with a transaction amount of around 30 million dollars, completely clearing all BTC positions in one go.

What happened after the liquidation? The only order still active and continuously increasing is for XYG100 — which is the on-chain top 100 weighted U.S. stock index, heavily weighted towards technology stocks, simply understood as the on-chain NASDAQ. They closed all BTC in the morning yesterday and continued to increase their positions in the stock index in the afternoon, buying even at temporary losses. Just three minutes after closing, the same address opened a long position in the on-chain U.S. stock index, with 30 times leverage, indicating a strong bullish outlook for the upcoming U.S. stock market rally. Achieving this speed of transition indicates that smart money is indeed very sensitive to market movements.

This also answers many people's questions: does seeing a red sell icon mean one is shorting? Actually, not necessarily. If you hover over the smart money icon, the label in the upper left corner will clearly state whether it is closing a long position or opening a short position. Closing a long merely settles a previous long position; it does not indicate that they are bearish or engaging in short selling.

If you want to check in more detail, you can click into the smart money detail page to find transaction records corresponding to that time, where historical trades and asset performance are clear at a glance. If you find this address has reference value, you can also set alerts for it, and you will be notified directly when there is action next time.

Not a Collective Turnaround: Some Hold Firm, Some Diversify

Of course, not all smart money is shifting positions; some are still holding firm. For instance, the well-known Big Brother Ma Ji is a steadfast Ethereum bull. His trading records are dense, and he is now only 2.6% away from the liquidation price, having just added margin to his long positions a few minutes ago, and further drops will mean liquidation. His historical profit and loss fluctuations are very large, and the operations are particularly dense, repeatedly opening and closing long positions within fifteen minutes. Many friends jokingly say that Big Brother Ma Ji can be considered a contrarian indicator – when he desperately closes long positions, it might be time to consider bottom fishing.

Interestingly, his allocation shows: on the crypto side, his positions in BTC, ETH, HBAR, and HIB are all in loss, with BTC very close to liquidation; while on the U.S. stocks and gold side, his positions in Tesla, NVIDIA, and gold are all in profit. Because of this hedge, the actual loss isn't as significant as it appears on paper.

This illustrates the significance of diversified allocation. Pairing crypto with U.S. stocks and gold allows for one side to hedge when the other falls, preventing a one-sided crash. Conversely, some people believe that buying BTC, ETH, SOL, UNI, and HYPE is diversification, but that’s really not the case.

In the crypto sphere, movements tend to be correlated; if the major index performs poorly, altcoins will decline even more sharply, which does not represent true risk diversification. When assets reach a certain scale, diversification should be pursued across crypto, U.S. stocks, and gold to earn excess returns in each market, rather than going all-in on a single asset class.

Summary: Shifting Positions is Rare, Overall Still Bullish

I have been tracking 100 high-winning smart money addresses, among which 16 currently hold positions in U.S. stocks or gold. This indicates that high-winning funds are also pursuing diversified market strategies.

Back to the initial question: with crypto pulling back and U.S. stocks rising, is smart money shifting positions?

A portion of sharp funds indeed is making transitions, but this is a minority behavior, not a collective turnaround. More often, smart money holds positions in both crypto and U.S. stocks, making hedged allocations. This shift is primarily driven by a few preemptive funds; most still remain in the crypto space while diversifying their holdings.

This batch of high-winning addresses overall still tends toward a bullish outlook, with a nominal long-short ratio of about 2.36 to 1 — corresponding to 2.36 long positions for every short position. Market enthusiasm is indeed shifting towards U.S. stocks; the crypto sector has just completed a wave of increases and requires time to adjust. Everyone can refer to this trend to adjust their investment strategies.

How to Use On-Chain Membership

Finally, let us quickly go over how to use the on-chain membership. Find the address you want to track, copy it, and paste it on the smart money page, and you will be able to see its buy and sell points displayed on the K line, making transactions clear at a glance. If you think the icons are too dense, go to the parameter settings to increase the amount threshold, filtering out small orders, and only view major trades in the millions or tens of millions.

If after observing for a period you believe the address is reliable, you can also set alerts. Ordinary users can set 2 for free, while on-chain members can set more, and you will receive pop-up notifications whenever the address makes a move. If you find the trading style aligns well, you can also activate copy trading. You can copy a single cryptocurrency or all cryptocurrencies, without limits on the number of trades. It even supports simulated copy trading, allowing you to test it out for a while before deciding whether to follow up with real trades.

I will periodically share high-winning addresses in the "On-Chain Smart Money Information Bureau" group, so everyone can add them to the K line for observation and reference their views to judge market trends.

Today's session ends here; if you have any questions, feel free to discuss them in the group. Goodbye.

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