Yesterday's market saw Bitcoin officially break through the 83,000 mark, with the lowest position already touching around 80,000. Some friends are beginning to believe that the old ideas of Lao Cui are correct. I would like to remind everyone that we still have not reached the zone for blindly shorting; the rebounds along the way remain strong. Users looking to short should still maintain their entries and exits on the same day. For instance, in a market with a fluctuation of 3,000 points, a steady way to make a profit is to only take 1,000-1,500 points, with the lower the better. In October, there is a short-term good news that there might not be an interest rate hike, which may affect the short-term trend for 1-3 days, especially during the monetary policy meeting in October, where there might be a surge in short positions followed by a downward trend. Currently, the important news flow is mostly dominated by bearish factors, so there is no significant issue with shorting, just manage your own risks well and avoid being too greedy. Brent crude oil has broken through 104 USD/barrel, rising over 4%, while WTI crude oil increased by 3.93% to 91.747 USD/barrel.

Crude oil prices keep breaking through, leaving few options for the U.S. Given that the interest rate hike cycle is a fixed premise, the best expectation for us is that the hike cycle can be passed quickly, with the indicator for this being the price of crude oil. Currently, it's hard for oil prices to go down due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the contradictions between the U.S. and Iran, leading to an overall decline in production. Returning to previous circumstances will take years in real time; thus, we should attempt to respond to upcoming facts primarily by shorting. Federal Reserve official Musalem: interest rates should be raised within the next 6 to 9 months to curb inflation. This information is the best forecast. If the U.S. can resolve this issue within the interest rate hike cycle, the hike cycle might be controlled within a year; conversely, the hike cycle might last longer, potentially 2-3 years. Do not have the mentality of taking chances; the hike cycle will disrupt all industries, except for gold, energy, and necessities.

The survivor bias effect is very stark; since the CNY to USD exchange rate is relatively strong, many feel that foreign trade is still quite considerable. One can imagine the exchange rate fluctuations in countries like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and even European nations, making it extremely difficult to conduct foreign trade business. Based on the current exchange rate, even with a certain profit, economic income may vary by tomorrow, and losses might also occur. The indicator for the end of the interest rate hike cycle can be watched through the price of crude oil and the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which have a direct correlation. As long as hostilities can cease, there will be an interest rate hike within three months, after which the U.S. will not choose to raise rates again. The current rate hikes are made out of necessity, and if there is room to not raise rates, the U.S. will also choose that option. Within this range, everyone can short; when to prepare for the arrival of a bull market? There are a total of two indicators: the end of the interest rate hike cycle or the passage of the bill.

Lao Cui summarizes: based on the current Bitcoin pricing, the onset of the interest rate hike cycle will certainly hinder its price, and do not speculate on the new low position. Speculation is pointless, whether bullish or bearish, especially for users wanting to go long; do not act during this cycle thinking about bottom fishing, as it might take 6 to 12 months to break free from being trapped. Users looking to short only need to overcome their inner greed; Lao Cui currently holds the position of the previous 85,000 mark short. As a small position holder, I am more eager to verify whether my ideas are correct. Many friends have certain biases in thinking, as Lao Cui previously mentioned, the linear indicator confirming the arrival of bears is a bearish candle that changes the trend, with a depth of at least 3,000-5,000 points. In current price terms, this would mean reaching the 78,000 mark. As a result, users looking to go long often ask Lao Cui if they should buy in at 78,000. They don't want the profit from a 3,000-5,000 point short, wanting a rebound that breaks the situation, but the profit won’t exceed 2,000 points. This mindset needs to change. To put it bluntly, if this situation truly materializes, the trend will still be bearish; bulls will find it difficult to mount a strong counterattack within the next six months. In the current market, remember not to go long. Of course, altcoins are an exception, as many altcoins do not follow the market trend. If you have inside information, feel free to play around with it; if not, just taking a look is a crime. Today's sharing ends here; if anyone has questions about breaking free or positioning, you can directly ask Lao Cui!

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