On October 13, multiple Chinese financial media outlets cited foreign media and informed sources stating that Japanese central bank officials currently prefer to "stay put" this month, not to implement a "rare" consecutive interest rate hike again in October, but to delay the choice of whether to raise rates again until the earliest meeting in December, provided that there are no sudden signs of worsening inflation. In other words, the market is likely to receive a policy meeting guide on October 30 that indicates "wait-and-see + reserve the option for December," rather than an immediate tightening upgrade. This also means that there will be a policy time lag filled with expectations between October and December: interest rates might rise, but not now. It is important to emphasize that all this is currently just expectation reports, with limited confidence; the final decision may still change in the final phase before the meeting. However, for global funds, the re-imagining of yen interest rate differentials, carry trades, and even risk asset pricing has already been initiated ahead of time. Therefore, how will each subsequent twist in the Japanese interest rate path reshape global risk appetite through this time lag and ultimately transmit to the capital flows and trading structures of cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH?

Japan's Consecutive Rate Hikes Put on Hold: Yen Carry Trade Survives

In this round of expectation reports on October 13, the key information is not "to hike or not," but rather "to hike continuously or not." The Bank of Japan has already taken a step toward raising interest rates, but sources indicate that in the absence of signs that inflationary risks will suddenly worsen, officials believe there is no need to follow up with a rare consecutive rate hike in October. The rarity itself is a signal— for a central bank that has long been in a super-loose environment, a consecutive rate hike would be seen as a proclamation to the market that "inflation is out of control and needs to be chased down." Given that the current inflation risk has not yet been defined as "suddenly surging," the Bank of Japan is more willing to postpone the "next step" until at least December and label it as "data-dependent," firmly retaining the choice in its own hands instead of committing itself to a hawkish path with one unconventional operation.

For external asset prices, this hesitation is itself another expression of "extended easing." Japan's long-maintained low interest rates have made the interest rate differentials between it and other major central banks the infrastructure for global carry trades: funds are borrowed in yen at low costs and exchanged for higher-yielding assets in currencies like the dollar. If consecutive rate hikes were to occur in October, the expectation of narrowing differentials would quickly compress this trading chain, forcing some yen shorts to cover and dollar longs to deleverage, tightening global dollar liquidity marginally; under the expectations of "consecutive rate hikes being put on hold," the market is more likely to believe that at least during the window from October to December, the yen remains a cheap financing currency, allowing carry trades to continue. The result is that the funding pool on the dollar side is indirectly supported, the valuation discount pressure for high-yielding assets is postponed, and volatile assets including BTC and ETH gain liquidity backing from the continuation of carry trades in the short term. Whether this backing is solid will depend on whether the expectations for the Japanese interest rate path are rewritten around the meeting on October 30.

October Easing, December Uncertainty

The current narrative is a time lag between a "forecasted stay put" and a "suspended rate hike window." The news leaked on October 13 links the tendency of Bank of Japan officials to not implement "rare consecutive rate hikes this month" with the possibility of "raising rates at the earliest in December," but the report itself has only moderate confidence, and the Bank of Japan plans to hold a policy meeting on October 30, with the final decision still possibly subject to change in the final stage before the meeting. In other words, the October easing is just a baseline scenario, and the real game lies in whether the economic data over the next two months will push December from the "earliest possible window" to "an action that must be executed."

On this timeline, the forex, bond, and volatility markets are forced to first trade expectations and then wait for reality to catch up: on the forex front, the yen path must simultaneously price in the continuation of easing in October and the rate hike option in December, resulting in repeated adjustments to cross-period differentials and forward points; on the bond front, short-end yields are suppressed by the inaction in October, while slightly longer terms must reserve a premium for the "sudden lift in December," enhancing the intrinsic oscillation sensation of the curve; in terms of volatility, the meetings on October 30 and December are marked as two event peaks, and option prices amplify uncertainty in advance. This structure represents a "window period" for all trades fueled by interest rate differentials and volatility: as long as the expectation of easing in October is not broken, high-beta assets can still enjoy the dual support of lower discount rates and continuous capital inflows, while the real turning point faced by BTC and ETH will be how the market rewrites the probability distribution for a December rate hike after October 30.

Cryptocurrency Funds under the Yen Carry Trade

With such interest rate expectations, the yen continues to play its role as a global "low-cost chip." The long-standing interest differentials between Japan and other major economies are the starting point for yen financing carry trades: on one end, borrowing in yen or other low-cost currencies, and on the other end, buying U.S. stocks, tech stocks, BTC, ETH, and other assets deemed part of the same "high-beta risk asset basket." The current reports point to a path of "not doing rare consecutive rate hikes, but reserving the option for a December rate hike," which effectively raises Japan's risk-free yield while deliberately leveling the pace, so that the cost of yen financing rises gradually rather than facing an abrupt change like "slamming the brakes."

The gentle pace determines that the carry trade chain will not be abruptly cut off in October. For a portion of global funds, as long as October does not see an unconventional consecutive rate hike, the yen remains a usable financing currency; it simply shifts from "able to fill the entire cycle" to "must always watch for December." This directly translates to the cryptocurrency market: on one hand, some accounts based on yen interest differentials still have the motivation to allocate risk budgets towards U.S. growth stocks and high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH; on the other hand, the change in Japan's interest rate path mainly alters the cost curve and duration preferences for funds—short-end leverage will be more cautious, and long-end risks will place greater emphasis on liquidity and drawdown management—rather than immediately reversing the direction of net fund inflows. As the current reports do not provide specific cross-border fund sizes or on-chain data, this impact should be viewed as a structural and marginal repricing rather than a reversal of flows that has already occurred.

Market Conditions for BTC and ETH under Rate Expectations

From the perspective of the global interest rate map, the cycle of the Bank of Japan is clearly out of sync with those of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, maintaining one of the lowest interest rates globally for a long time, while the U.S. and Europe have already entered a high, tight rate range. The expectation for October of "leaning against rare consecutive rate hikes," if accepted by the market, would be seen as a marginal signal that global financial conditions are slightly looser than previously imagined: the original concern that Japan would also begin to tighten aggressively, raising global risk-free interest rates and funding costs, is now temporarily suppressed, suggesting that the yen may continue to serve as a low-cost financing currency. For the dollar, this structure reinforces "high-rate dollars vs. low-rate yen" at the level of interest rate differentials, which is beneficial for maintaining the strength of the dollar. However, due to the lack of additional synchronized rate hike pressure from Japan, global comprehensive financial conditions have not tightened as distinctly as the scenario of "Japan tightening significantly" would suggest. The result for high-volatility assets, including BTC and ETH, is more a "failure to tighten incrementally" leading to a relaxation of risk premiums rather than substantial easing.

BTC and ETH are less sensitive to the absolute level of interest rates than they are to "path changes": whether to continue unexpectedly high-rate hikes or to slow down determines the direction of the discount rate and the marginal price of liquidity. Historical experience shows that during phases of liquidity easing and softening rate expectations, these two types of assets often receive heightened funding interest. On one hand, their high elasticity characteristics allow them to serve as vehicles for betting on rate turning points during the initial phase of sentiment recovery compared to bonds and blue-chip stocks, especially in periods when rates peak or rise gradually; on the other hand, once global funds confirm that "the worst of the interest rate trajectory is largely over," they are more willing to use a portion of their risk budget to exchange for upside leverage in high-volatility varieties. The ongoing bet around whether Japan will implement consecutive rate hikes in October fundamentally involves re-pricing the slope of this turning point: If the market believes that Japan merely postpones action until December based on data, rather than embarking on a new round of aggressive tightening, then BTC and ETH will be in an environment where global risk compensation requirements are no longer expected to rise further, and may even be moderately expected to decline. Of course, the current brief does not provide any specific BTC or ETH price or volatility data, and this interpretation of the market remains at the level of interest rate expectations; whether it can ultimately translate into actual market conditions will need to be validated by future trading data and cross-asset performance.

Trading and Risks Before the October 30 Meeting

From the reports released on October 13 to the window leading up to the meeting on October 30, the expectation of the Bank of Japan "not implementing consecutive rate hikes in October, with eyes on December at the earliest" has shaped a temporary structure across forex, interest rates, and cryptocurrency assets: on one hand, the market will first constrain the upward rhythm of yen interest rates by assuming "there will not be rare consecutive rate hikes," alleviating concerns about a renewed collective rise in global interest rates, thereby providing an environment where risk assets such as BTC and ETH have their risk premiums no longer passively elevated. On the other hand, this conclusion is based solely on middle-confidence information from informed sources and foreign media, lacking any official statements or minutes from the Bank of Japan, and the final decision before the October 30 meeting may still change. If the Bank of Japan adjusts its path temporarily or even unexpectedly chooses to hike rates, the impact will first manifest through severe fluctuations in the yen exchange rate and a repricing of dollar liquidity expectations, which will then transmit to risk asset valuations, creating a dual amplification of "interest rate surprises + exchange rate volatility" for the cryptocurrency market. For cryptocurrency traders, the core observational variables during this time are primarily the fluctuations of the yen against major currencies and the market's repricing of the Japanese interest rate path, as well as any directional shifts in on-chain funds between BTC, ETH, and other dollar-denominated assets.

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Exclusive Hyperliquid Benefits for AiCoin: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
Exclusive Aster Benefits for AiCoin: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。